18 March 2023
In a league with many competing thoughts there is one agreed upon imperative – a franchise QB. Without an elite QB, the chances of winning it all are virtually nonexistent. Teams confident in their signal caller are few. Most are jockeying to get the right guy to lead their team. Teams are desperate to find the next great QB. But year after year, teams struggle to identify and draft the college QBs with the most potential to perform on the NFL stage.
Teams so desperately want to see the same talent of a Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, Josh Allen, or Jalen Hurts that they seem to overlook a QB’s entire body of work. Great highlight film evokes dreams of superstar potential and Lombardi trophies. NFL teams are so enamored with size, speed, athleticism, and arm strength that they tend to minimize flaws, weaknesses, and/or college production challenges if a player exhibits the former qualities.
Our competition factor adjusted production metric has proven to be a very good predictor of NFL performance potential. NFL competition is much tougher than anything these QBs faced in college. That is why our metric evaluates players game-by-game. We evaluate their production relative to the strength of their opponent. Not the entire team, but the components that oppose the player. QBs are evaluated against the strength of the opposing pass defense. If those great highlights all come against college “cupcakes” they get devalued in our analytic. If they occur against the likes of Georgia and Alabama they are adjusted accordingly, based on the competition factor.
Surprisingly, our data many times differs from how the QBs are drafted. More times than not, we get it right. Brock Purdy, Mr. Irrelevant in the 2022 NFL Draft, was our second ranked QB. Kenny Pickett was #4 and Malik Willis was our 17th ranked QB (7th in our dual threat adjusted ranking). In 2021, like the Jaguars, we also had Trevor Lawrence as our top QB. Mac Jones at #3, Justin Fields at #5, and Zach Wilson as our 9th QB. In 2020 our top 4 QBs were Joe Burrow, Tua Tagovailoa, Jalen Hurts, and Justin Herbert. We had Jordan Love at #30.
What about finding the next Patrick Mahomes? Mahomes was our #2 QB behind Deshaun Watson in the 2017 NFL Draft. Both above Mitch Trubisky, who we ranked at 7. Our QB ratings for the 2023 NFL Draft are below. You will see that our metric, once again, differs from the many mock drafts out there. You can sort by any of the different categories that we evaluate QB production. Each is our competition factored rating.
| QUARTERBACK RATINGS | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PLAYER | TEAM | POS | YR | EFF | YPG | YPC | YPA | PCT | TDs | INTs | DUAL | OVR | |
| 1 | Hendon Hooker | Tennessee | QB | 2023 | 96.8 | 74.7 | 91.8 | 93.2 | 96.1 | 91.9 | 94.1 | 94.1 | 92.8 |
| 2 | CJ Stroud | Ohio St. | QB | 2023 | 89.4 | 86.9 | 85.5 | 87.3 | 88.4 | 85.9 | 78.5 | 79.7 | 88.3 |
| 3 | Stetson Bennett | Georgia | QB | 2023 | 86.2 | 71.4 | 91.7 | 90.2 | 85.2 | 82.0 | 87.4 | 80.8 | 85.2 |
| 4 | Bryce Young | Alabama | QB | 2023 | 84.6 | 80.5 | 86.2 | 78.7 | 83.7 | 85.8 | 85.2 | 76.9 | 84.9 |
| 5 | Dorian Thompson-Robinson | UCLA | QB | 2023 | 87.1 | 68.5 | 87.7 | 77.5 | 87.4 | 92.0 | 78.8 | 85.7 | 83.1 |
| 6 | Aidan OConnell | Purdue | QB | 2023 | 77.7 | 82.1 | 77.2 | 70.4 | 89.5 | 81.5 | 69.8 | 69.5 | 80.9 |
| 7 | Max Duggan | TCU | QB | 2023 | 83.0 | 63.9 | 87.3 | 81.6 | 75.3 | 86.2 | 85.0 | 79.7 | 79.8 |
| 8 | Jake Haener | Fresno St. | QB | 2023 | 78.2 | 77.4 | 79.8 | 73.8 | 81.3 | 80.4 | 76.4 | 63.8 | 79.6 |
| 9 | Malik Cunningham | Louisville | QB | 2023 | 73.9 | 52.5 | 90.7 | 81.9 | 80.4 | 87.8 | 84.4 | 85.5 | 78.8 |
| 10 | Adrian Martinez | Kansas St. | QB | 2023 | 73.3 | 63.3 | 80.4 | 74.2 | 80.9 | 84.3 | 81.8 | 85.1 | 78.3 |
| 11 | Jaren Hall | BYU | QB | 2023 | 84.2 | 67.9 | 82.1 | 77.4 | 78.9 | 80.4 | 78.5 | 76.3 | 78.0 |
| 12 | Clayton Tune | Houston | QB | 2023 | 79.4 | 74.9 | 83.6 | 71.3 | 78.5 | 86.5 | 63.4 | 71.4 | 76.9 |
| 13 | Tyson Bagent | Sheperd | QB | 2023 | 73.5 | 83.3 | 78.0 | 70.4 | 81.5 | 83.1 | 54.4 | 60.3 | 76.9 |
| 14 | Holton Ahlers | East Carolina | QB | 2023 | 70.4 | 77.4 | 86.1 | 68.4 | 72.3 | 84.6 | 74.2 | 68.3 | 76.7 |
| 15 | Kedon Slovis | Pittsburgh | QB | 2023 | 72.4 | 75.3 | 84.6 | 76.5 | 77.8 | 73.9 | 69.8 | 61.7 | 76.2 |
| 16 | Lindsey Scott | Incarnate Word | QB | 2023 | 77.2 | 75.3 | 73.0 | 75.0 | 76.5 | 75.4 | 66.6 | 73.8 | 75.2 |
| 17 | Spencer Sanders | Oklahoma St. | QB | 2023 | 68.4 | 70.0 | 87.1 | 70.5 | 73.3 | 84.0 | 69.8 | 77.9 | 74.9 |
| 18 | Sean Clifford | Penn State | QB | 2023 | 74.9 | 61.1 | 89.7 | 71.4 | 71.8 | 82.4 | 83.1 | 70.7 | 74.8 |
| 19 | Tanner Mordecai | SMU | QB | 2023 | 74.3 | 69.7 | 76.3 | 69.8 | 79.7 | 75.6 | 71.2 | 65.8 | 74.4 |
| 20 | Jarret Doege | Troy | QB | 2023 | 74.4 | 57.2 | 78.9 | 68.3 | 86.2 | 77.4 | 75.3 | 53.4 | 74.1 |
| 21 | Payton Thorne | Michigan St. | QB | 2023 | 71.4 | 70.4 | 81.8 | 70.1 | 73.9 | 78.1 | 69.6 | 68.3 | 73.6 |
| 22 | Tanner McKee | Stanford | QB | 2023 | 67.5 | 73.0 | 77.3 | 66.6 | 75.8 | 71.3 | 76.6 | 64.0 | 73.4 |
| 23 | Will Levis | Kentucky | QB | 2023 | 76.5 | 53.1 | 80.7 | 73.7 | 81.6 | 77.0 | 72.2 | 67.1 | 72.6 |
| 24 | Tim DeMorat | Fordham | QB | 2023 | 76.3 | 73.9 | 80.3 | 71.4 | 66.8 | 81.7 | 62.5 | 56.8 | 72.6 |
| 25 | Jack Plummer | California | QB | 2023 | 65.6 | 70.8 | 73.3 | 59.0 | 75.1 | 73.1 | 76.6 | 59.9 | 71.5 |
| 26 | Tanner Morgan | Minnesota | QB | 2023 | 72.7 | 46.1 | 91.0 | 80.9 | 73.0 | 70.9 | 78.7 | 58.5 | 70.4 |
| 27 | Tyler Shough | Texas Tech | QB | 2023 | 73.0 | 57.3 | 76.0 | 72.4 | 73.9 | 71.0 | 72.5 | 66.7 | 70.0 |
| 28 | Charlie Brewer | Liberty | QB | 2023 | 63.2 | 58.8 | 74.4 | 58.5 | 73.3 | 80.4 | 77.4 | 64.4 | 70.0 |
| 29 | Brennan Armstrong | Virginia | QB | 2023 | 63.9 | 72.6 | 83.5 | 70.0 | 61.2 | 78.2 | 63.3 | 69.1 | 69.9 |
| 30 | Chris Reynolds | Charlotte | QB | 2023 | 68.1 | 57.9 | 85.3 | 70.0 | 70.2 | 80.5 | 65.3 | 56.8 | 69.7 |
| 31 | Tommy Devito | Illinois | QB | 2023 | 70.0 | 47.5 | 75.4 | 64.0 | 77.7 | 71.2 | 88.1 | 62.2 | 69.5 |
| 32 | James Blackman | Arkansas St. | QB | 2023 | 65.7 | 56.0 | 82.8 | 66.3 | 71.7 | 68.9 | 78.3 | 53.8 | 68.2 |
| 33 | Anthony Richardson | Florida | QB | 2023 | 69.1 | 52.7 | 78.9 | 69.7 | 65.5 | 73.2 | 74.0 | 73.0 | 67.1 |
| 34 | Phil Jurkovec | Boston College | QB | 2023 | 64.2 | 54.7 | 78.3 | 68.0 | 66.3 | 70.6 | 73.8 | 62.6 | 66.8 |
| 35 | Hank Bachmeier | Boise St. | QB | 2023 | 66.8 | 62.3 | 77.3 | 63.7 | 64.8 | 70.8 | 71.6 | 56.0 | 66.8 |
| 36 | Cade McNamara | Michigan | QB | 2023 | 71.6 | 49.2 | 74.9 | 70.0 | 71.7 | 63.2 | 80.3 | 59.5 | 66.6 |
| 37 | Jack Abraham | Missouri | QB | 2023 | 65.1 | 58.5 | 72.0 | 67.3 | 76.6 | 66.2 | 61.0 | 54.8 | 66.6 |
| 38 | Tristan Gebbia | Oregon St. | QB | 2023 | 66.2 | 55.3 | 65.7 | 63.1 | 75.6 | 62.1 | 74.2 | 62.2 | 66.0 |
| 39 | Alan Bowman | Michigan | QB | 2023 | 64.1 | 58.5 | 66.0 | 60.6 | 74.6 | 65.5 | 69.2 | 55.6 | 65.8 |
| 40 | Ben Bryant | Eastern Michigan | QB | 2023 | 69.9 | 56.3 | 74.9 | 65.1 | 69.8 | 63.1 | 75.5 | 52.5 | 65.8 |
| 41 | John Rhys Plumlee | Central Florida | QB | 2023 | 64.7 | 45.6 | 69.2 | 62.4 | 73.9 | 66.3 | 82.2 | 71.8 | 65.6 |
| 42 | Henry Colombi | Marshall | QB | 2023 | 65.8 | 42.7 | 63.6 | 60.2 | 85.6 | 59.3 | 80.0 | 57.2 | 65.3 |
| 43 | Parker McNeil | Louisiana Tech | QB | 2023 | 68.1 | 63.3 | 69.5 | 67.4 | 60.1 | 68.7 | 65.3 | 58.9 | 65.0 |
| 44 | Davis Brin | Tulsa | QB | 2023 | 64.7 | 62.7 | 80.2 | 68.7 | 59.4 | 71.4 | 61.2 | 56.4 | 65.0 |
| 45 | Darren Grainger | Georgia St. | QB | 2023 | 71.4 | 46.0 | 77.8 | 68.8 | 62.5 | 73.3 | 73.8 | 67.7 | 64.7 |
| 46 | Gunnar Holmberg | Florida Intl | QB | 2023 | 64.5 | 52.5 | 67.7 | 63.0 | 77.7 | 59.8 | 70.7 | 59.9 | 64.7 |
| 47 | Chase Brice | Appalachian St. | QB | 2023 | 65.9 | 52.1 | 82.2 | 65.6 | 61.4 | 69.1 | 77.0 | 53.8 | 64.7 |
| 48 | Dylan Hopkins | UAB | QB | 2023 | 73.5 | 40.0 | 79.8 | 72.3 | 70.3 | 64.4 | 77.7 | 55.2 | 64.5 |
| 49 | Chase Cunningham | Middle Tennessee | QB | 2023 | 61.2 | 54.4 | 66.4 | 58.3 | 68.2 | 69.8 | 71.6 | 55.8 | 64.3 |
| 50 | Eric Najarian | Maryland | QB | 2023 | 66.3 | 60.4 | 68.9 | 66.8 | 63.1 | 62.9 | 68.3 | 62.2 | 64.2 |
| 51 | NKosi Perry | Florida Atlantic | QB | 2023 | 68.4 | 49.2 | 77.9 | 60.0 | 55.8 | 75.6 | 82.7 | 55.8 | 63.8 |
| 52 | Kyle Vantrease | Georgia Southern | QB | 2023 | 60.0 | 55.7 | 75.4 | 59.9 | 61.7 | 68.9 | 71.8 | 49.9 | 63.2 |
| 53 | Preston Rice | Middle Tennessee | QB | 2023 | 61.5 | 61.4 | 61.5 | 61.0 | 66.0 | 62.6 | 65.1 | 62.4 | 63.0 |
| 54 | Todd Centeio | James Madison | QB | 2023 | 68.1 | 46.9 | 80.0 | 68.4 | 63.2 | 60.5 | 80.9 | 59.1 | 63.0 |
| 55 | Chase Griffin | UCLA | QB | 2023 | 63.3 | 57.6 | 64.8 | 61.7 | 64.5 | 64.4 | 66.6 | 60.9 | 62.7 |
| 56 | Logan Bonner | Utah St. | QB | 2023 | 64.1 | 53.4 | 76.9 | 60.9 | 59.8 | 70.1 | 69.9 | 49.5 | 62.4 |
| 57 | Joe Milton | Tennessee | QB | 2023 | 69.1 | 39.3 | 79.5 | 73.1 | 60.2 | 58.7 | 85.3 | 60.9 | 62.0 |
| 58 | Ryan Glover | Memphis | QB | 2023 | 61.9 | 58.9 | 61.3 | 60.0 | 62.7 | 61.3 | 65.9 | 60.1 | 61.2 |
| 59 | Chance Lovertich | Mississippi St. | QB | 2023 | 67.1 | 48.3 | 66.5 | 63.7 | 66.1 | 60.5 | 70.9 | 57.9 | 61.2 |
| 60 | Jason Bean | Kansas | QB | 2023 | 69.1 | 41.2 | 73.8 | 64.6 | 60.1 | 66.4 | 75.3 | 60.1 | 60.6 |
| 61 | Austin Burton | Purdue | QB | 2023 | 62.1 | 49.6 | 57.2 | 57.6 | 67.8 | 58.7 | 73.6 | 59.7 | 60.6 |
| 62 | Chase Wolf | Wisconsin | QB | 2023 | 57.6 | 50.6 | 67.7 | 59.7 | 67.2 | 57.9 | 69.9 | 58.3 | 60.4 |
| 63 | Jason Brown | Virginia Tech | QB | 2023 | 62.1 | 49.2 | 66.1 | 60.3 | 62.9 | 61.4 | 69.4 | 56.2 | 59.9 |
| 64 | Matt McDonald | Bowling Green | QB | 2023 | 55.1 | 57.5 | 68.5 | 52.6 | 56.7 | 64.1 | 68.5 | 47.8 | 59.0 |
| 65 | Maasai Maynor | Navy | QB | 2023 | 59.6 | 50.5 | 67.4 | 61.4 | 58.2 | 57.8 | 71.8 | 57.2 | 58.8 |
| 66 | Nick Patti | Pittsburgh | QB | 2023 | 61.4 | 45.6 | 63.7 | 59.7 | 60.6 | 57.4 | 77.4 | 56.2 | 58.8 |
| 67 | Rocky Lombardi | Northern Illinois | QB | 2023 | 60.5 | 47.3 | 74.9 | 57.3 | 55.4 | 65.6 | 72.5 | 54.4 | 58.5 |
| 68 | Spencer Petras | Iowa | QB | 2023 | 54.4 | 41.5 | 75.5 | 53.9 | 56.3 | 60.8 | 83.9 | 47.0 | 57.5 |
| 69 | Miles Kendrick | New Mexico | QB | 2023 | 59.1 | 33.4 | 66.3 | 56.5 | 73.0 | 56.4 | 72.7 | 52.5 | 57.3 |
| 70 | John Paddock | Ball St. | QB | 2023 | 53.1 | 54.6 | 58.0 | 48.8 | 63.6 | 61.2 | 61.0 | 47.8 | 57.2 |
| 71 | Haaziq Daniels | Air Force | QB | 2023 | 60.7 | 28.3 | 79.5 | 71.7 | 41.6 | 65.5 | 82.9 | 61.8 | 56.0 |
| 72 | Cade Fortin | Arkansas | QB | 2023 | 54.9 | 45.9 | 58.4 | 53.2 | 57.4 | 55.7 | 76.4 | 57.5 | 56.0 |
| 73 | Jack Tuttle | Indiana | QB | 2023 | 63.0 | 44.3 | 58.1 | 51.2 | 60.4 | 56.0 | 74.0 | 53.0 | 55.5 |
| 74 | Hunter Johnson | Northwestern | QB | 2023 | 50.8 | 48.9 | 56.8 | 48.1 | 58.6 | 58.7 | 68.8 | 52.1 | 55.2 |
| 75 | Braxton Burmeister | San Diego St. | QB | 2023 | 57.7 | 32.5 | 69.8 | 52.9 | 52.7 | 59.7 | 83.1 | 56.8 | 53.9 |
| 76 | Tyhier Tyler | Army | QB | 2023 | 61.4 | 31.9 | 63.4 | 63.3 | 48.3 | 59.3 | 75.7 | 57.0 | 53.7 |
| 77 | Nate Cox | Nevada | QB | 2023 | 45.8 | 47.0 | 61.4 | 47.1 | 54.6 | 57.6 | 69.8 | 51.7 | 53.6 |
| 78 | Noah Vedral | Rutgers | QB | 2023 | 45.4 | 33.7 | 67.4 | 48.8 | 55.4 | 57.5 | 82.2 | 51.3 | 53.2 |
| 79 | Bryce Carpenter | Coastal Carolina | QB | 2023 | 59.0 | 23.8 | 59.3 | 56.7 | 60.9 | 52.2 | 81.4 | 50.1 | 52.8 |
| 80 | Jemel Jones | Army | QB | 2023 | 54.1 | 36.1 | 68.4 | 60.6 | 44.5 | 58.3 | 68.8 | 51.5 | 51.8 |