2026 · Week 1 · September 14, 2026 · NFL
Week 1 scorecard
The preview exactly as we published it before kickoff —
the unit mismatches and player production projections — now with the
actual box score next to every number and a grade on each row. Nothing
here was edited after the games kicked off. See the full
season track record →
Week summary
144
Projections graded
1 voided · 0 pending · 64 post-kickoff excluded
52%
Beat naive baseline
on 141 comparable rows
5–3
Components vs naive
MAE win/loss by stat
—
Unit-edge record
biggest-mismatch calls
| Component | n | Our MAE | Naive MAE | Verdict |
|---|
| Pass yds | 16 | 98.38 | 101.32 | beats naive |
| Pass TD | 16 | 0.85 | 0.86 | beats naive |
| INT | 13 | 0.70 | 0.71 | beats naive |
| Rush yds | 13 | 31.70 | 34.13 | beats naive |
| Rush TD | 10 | 0.85 | 0.82 | trails naive |
| Rec | 22 | 1.75 | 1.72 | trails naive |
| Rec yds | 32 | 24.32 | 24.54 | beats naive |
| Rec TD | 22 | 0.69 | 0.68 | trails naive |
1 row(s) voided (adjusted for availability or replaced by a starter change before kickoff) — shown struck-through, excluded from every number above.
64 row(s) came from a preview regeneration written after its game had kicked off — never on record, shown struck-through for transparency, excluded from every number above. Each game is graded only against its last pre-kickoff publication.
MAE = mean absolute error vs the actual box score, in each stat’s own units. Naive = the player’s prior-season per-game average.
Niners at RamsThu Sep 10, 2026
| Player | Proj | Projected | Prior-yr avg | Actual |
|---|
| Brock Purdy | QB · Pass yds | 235 | 235 | 205 |
| Brock Purdy | QB · Pass TD | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| Brock Purdy | QB · INT | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1 |
| Christian McCaffrey | RB · Rush yds | 65 | 70 | 70 |
| Christian McCaffrey | RB · Rush TD | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Christian McCaffrey | RB · Rec yds | 55 | 55 | 20 |
| George Kittle | TE · Rec | 5.3 | 5.3 | 2 |
| George Kittle | TE · Rec yds | 60 | 60 | 10 |
| George Kittle | TE · Rec TD | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | QB · Pass yds | 280 | 280 | 155 |
| Matthew Stafford | QB · Pass TD | 2.5 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | QB · INT | 0.5 | 0.5 | 1 |
| Kyren Williams | RB · Rush yds | 70 | 70 | 40 |
| Kyren Williams | RB · Rush TD | 0.6 | 0.6 | 1 |
| Kyren Williams | RB · Rec yds | 15 | 20 | 25 |
| Puka Nacua | WR · Rec | 8 | 8.1 | 5 |
| Puka Nacua | WR · Rec yds | 105 | 110 | 75 |
| Puka Nacua | WR · Rec TD | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0 |
| Mike Evans | WR · Rec | 4.4 | 4.3 | generated after kickoff — excluded |
| Mike Evans | WR · Rec yds | 55 | 55 | generated after kickoff — excluded |
| Mike Evans | WR · Rec TD | 0.4 | 0.4 | generated after kickoff — excluded |
| Xavier Smith | WR · Rec | 2.2 | 1.3 | generated after kickoff — excluded |
| Xavier Smith | WR · Rec yds | 35 | 20 | generated after kickoff — excluded |
| Xavier Smith | WR · Rec TD | 0 | 0 | generated after kickoff — excluded |
Patriots at SeahawksWed Sep 9, 2026
| Player | Proj | Projected | Prior-yr avg | Actual |
|---|
| Drake Maye | QB · Pass yds | 245 | 250 | 180 |
| Drake Maye | QB · Pass TD | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1 |
| Drake Maye | QB · INT | 0.6 | 0.6 | 3 |
| Hunter Henry | TE · Rec | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3 |
| Hunter Henry | TE · Rec yds | 40 | 40 | 25 |
| Hunter Henry | TE · Rec TD | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0 |
| A.J. Brown | WR · Rec | 5 | 5.1 | 3 |
| A.J. Brown | WR · Rec yds | 65 | 65 | 25 |
| A.J. Brown | WR · Rec TD | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0 |
| Sam Darnold | QB · Pass yds | 230 | 235 | 15 |
| Sam Darnold | QB · Pass TD | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Sam Darnold | QB · INT | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR · Rec | 6.7 | 6.8 | 8 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR · Rec yds | 100 | 100 | 120 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR · Rec TD | 0.6 | 0.6 | 1 |
| AJ Barner | TE · Rec | 3.1 | 2.9 | 2 |
| AJ Barner | TE · Rec yds | 30 | 30 | 15 |
| AJ Barner | TE · Rec TD | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | RB · Rush yds | 55 | 45 | generated after kickoff — excluded |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | RB · Rush TD | 0.3 | 0.4 | generated after kickoff — excluded |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | RB · Rec yds | 25 | 25 | generated after kickoff — excluded |
| Drake Maye | QB · Rush yds | 25 | 30 | generated after kickoff — excluded |
| Romeo Doubs | WR · Rec | 4.2 | 3.9 | generated after kickoff — excluded |
| Romeo Doubs | WR · Rec yds | 55 | 55 | generated after kickoff — excluded |
| Romeo Doubs | WR · Rec TD | 0.4 | 0.4 | generated after kickoff — excluded |
| Jadarian Price | RB · Rush yds | 55 | — | generated after kickoff — excluded |
| Jadarian Price | RB · Rush TD | 0.1 | — | generated after kickoff — excluded |
| Jadarian Price | RB · Rec yds | 10 | — | generated after kickoff — excluded |
| Elijah Arroyo | TE · Rec | 1.8 | 1.7 | generated after kickoff — excluded |
| Elijah Arroyo | TE · Rec yds | 20 | 20 | generated after kickoff — excluded |
| Elijah Arroyo | TE · Rec TD | 0.1 | 0.1 | generated after kickoff — excluded |
Bills at TexansSun Sep 13, 2026
| Player | Proj | Projected | Prior-yr avg | Actual |
|---|
| Josh Allen | QB · Pass yds | 230 | 235 | 335 |
| Josh Allen | QB · Pass TD | 1.4 | 1.6 | 2 |
| Josh Allen | QB · Rush yds | 30 | 40 | 25 |
| James Cook | RB · Rush yds | 85 | 95 | 55 |
| James Cook | RB · Rush TD | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0 |
| James Cook | RB · Rec yds | 15 | 15 | 10 |
| Dalton Kincaid | TE · Rec | 3.6 | 3.7 | 5 |
| Dalton Kincaid | TE · Rec yds | 50 | 50 | 130 |
| Dalton Kincaid | TE · Rec TD | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0 |
| C.J. Stroud | QB · Pass yds | 220 | 220 | 275 |
| C.J. Stroud | QB · Pass TD | 1.3 | 1.3 | 2 |
| C.J. Stroud | QB · INT | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0 |
| Dalton Schultz | TE · Rec | 4 | 4.6 | 4 |
| Dalton Schultz | TE · Rec yds | 40 | 45 | 35 |
| Dalton Schultz | TE · Rec TD | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0 |
| Nico Collins | WR · Rec | 4.4 | 4.6 | 7 |
| Nico Collins | WR · Rec yds | 70 | 70 | 75 |
| Nico Collins | WR · Rec TD | 0.2 | 0.4 | 1 |
| DJ Moore | WR · Rec | 3.5 | 3.4 | generated after kickoff — excluded |
| DJ Moore | WR · Rec yds | 50 | 45 | generated after kickoff — excluded |
| DJ Moore | WR · Rec TD | 0.5 | 0.4 | generated after kickoff — excluded |
| David Montgomery | RB · Rush yds | 40 | 40 | generated after kickoff — excluded |
| David Montgomery | RB · Rush TD | 0.4 | 0.5 | generated after kickoff — excluded |
| David Montgomery | RB · Rec yds | 10 | 10 | generated after kickoff — excluded |
Packers at VikingsSun Sep 13, 2026
| Player | Proj | Projected | Prior-yr avg | Actual |
|---|
| Jordan Love | QB · Pass yds | 230 | 230 | 385 |
| Jordan Love | QB · Pass TD | 1.5 | 1.7 | 2 |
| Jordan Love | QB · INT | 0.5 | 0.4 | 1 |
| Tucker Kraft | TE · Rec | 3.7 | 4 | 3 |
| Tucker Kraft | TE · Rec yds | 50 | 60 | 65 |
| Tucker Kraft | TE · Rec TD | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0 |
| Christian Watson | WR · Rec | 3.5 | 3.5 | 6 |
| Christian Watson | WR · Rec yds | 55 | 60 | 145 |
| Christian Watson | WR · Rec TD | 0.5 | 0.6 | 2 |
| Kyler Murray | QB · Pass yds | 200 | 190 | 20 |
| Kyler Murray | QB · Pass TD | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0 |
| Kyler Murray | QB · Rush yds | 25 | 35 | 10 |
| T.J. Hockenson | TE · Rec | 3.4 | 3.4 | 4 |
| T.J. Hockenson | TE · Rec yds | 30 | 30 | 35 |
| T.J. Hockenson | TE · Rec TD | 0.2 | 0.2 | 1 |
| Justin Jefferson | WR · Rec | 4.6 | 4.9 | 8 |
| Justin Jefferson | WR · Rec yds | 55 | 60 | 90 |
| Justin Jefferson | WR · Rec TD | 0.1 | 0.1 | 2 |
| MarShawn Lloyd | RB · Rush yds | 50 | — | generated after kickoff — excluded |
| MarShawn Lloyd | RB · Rush TD | 0.1 | — | generated after kickoff — excluded |
| MarShawn Lloyd | RB · Rec yds | 10 | — | generated after kickoff — excluded |
| Aaron Jones Sr. | RB · Rush yds | 45 | 45 | generated after kickoff — excluded |
| Aaron Jones Sr. | RB · Rush TD | 0.2 | 0.2 | generated after kickoff — excluded |
| Aaron Jones Sr. | RB · Rec yds | 15 | 15 | generated after kickoff — excluded |
| Max Bredeson | RB · Rush yds | 55 | — | generated after kickoff — excluded |
| Max Bredeson | RB · Rush TD | 0 | — | generated after kickoff — excluded |
| Max Bredeson | RB · Rec yds | 10 | — | generated after kickoff — excluded |
Ravens at ColtsSun Sep 13, 2026
| Player | Proj | Projected | Prior-yr avg | Actual |
|---|
| Lamar Jackson | QB · Pass yds | 200 | 195 | 325 |
| Lamar Jackson | QB · Pass TD | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1 |
| Lamar Jackson | QB · INT | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Derrick Henry | RB · Rush yds | 90 | 95 | 145 |
| Derrick Henry | RB · Rush TD | 0.8 | 0.9 | 3 |
| Derrick Henry | RB · Rec yds | 10 | 10 | 20 |
| Mark Andrews | TE · Rec | 2.7 | 2.8 | 4 |
| Mark Andrews | TE · Rec yds | 25 | 25 | 50 |
| Mark Andrews | TE · Rec TD | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0 |
| Daniel Jones | QB · Pass yds | 235 | 240 | 165 |
| Daniel Jones | QB · Pass TD | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1 |
| Daniel Jones | QB · INT | 0.7 | 0.6 | 1 |
| Jonathan Taylor | RB · Rush yds | 80 | 95 | 100 |
| Jonathan Taylor | RB · Rush TD | 0.9 | 1.1 | 2 |
| Jonathan Taylor | RB · Rec yds | 20 | 20 | 25 |
| Tyler Warren | TE · Rec | 4.1 | 4.5 | 3 |
| Tyler Warren | TE · Rec yds | 40 | 50 | 15 |
| Tyler Warren | TE · Rec TD | 0.2 | 0.2 | 1 |
| Tyler Huntley | QB · Pass yds | 165 | 85 | generated after kickoff — excluded |
| Tyler Huntley | QB · Pass TD | 0.8 | 0.4 | generated after kickoff — excluded |
| Tyler Huntley | QB · Rush yds | 25 | 30 | generated after kickoff — excluded |
| Zay Flowers | WR · Rec | 4.7 | 5.1 | generated after kickoff — excluded |
| Zay Flowers | WR · Rec yds | 75 | 70 | generated after kickoff — excluded |
| Zay Flowers | WR · Rec TD | 0.3 | 0.3 | generated after kickoff — excluded |
| Ashton Dulin | WR · Rec | 2.4 | 0.5 | generated after kickoff — excluded |
| Ashton Dulin | WR · Rec yds | 40 | 10 | generated after kickoff — excluded |
| Ashton Dulin | WR · Rec TD | 0 | 0 | generated after kickoff — excluded |
Broncos at ChiefsMon Sep 14, 2026
| Player | Proj | Projected | Prior-yr avg | Actual |
|---|
| Bo Nix | QB · Pass yds | 230 | 235 | 130 |
| Bo Nix | QB · Pass TD | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1 |
| Bo Nix | QB · INT | 0.8 | 0.7 | 1 |
| Evan Engram | TE · Rec | 3.1 | 3.1 | 4 |
| Evan Engram | TE · Rec yds | 30 | 30 | 45 |
| Evan Engram | TE · Rec TD | 0 | 0.1 | 1 |
| J.K. Dobbins | RB · Rush yds | 70 | 75 | 35 |
| J.K. Dobbins | RB · Rush TD | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0 |
| J.K. Dobbins | RB · Rec yds | 5 | 5 | 0 |
| Patrick Mahomes II | QB · Pass yds | 245 | 255 | 185 |
| Patrick Mahomes II | QB · Pass TD | 1.4 | 1.6 | 2 |
| Patrick Mahomes II | QB · Rush yds | 30 | 30 | replaced pre-game |
| Travis Kelce | TE · Rec | 4.1 | 4.5 | 3 |
| Travis Kelce | TE · Rec yds | 45 | 50 | 70 |
| Travis Kelce | TE · Rec TD | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0 |
| Kenneth Walker III | RB · Rush yds | 65 | 65 | 175 |
| Kenneth Walker III | RB · Rush TD | 0.4 | 0.5 | 1 |
| Kenneth Walker III | RB · Rec yds | 20 | 20 | 20 |
| Patrick Mahomes II | QB · INT | 0.9 | 0.8 | 1 |
| Jarrett Stidham | QB · Pass yds | 195 | 65 | generated after kickoff — excluded |
| Jarrett Stidham | QB · Pass TD | 1 | 0.5 | generated after kickoff — excluded |
| Jarrett Stidham | QB · INT | 1 | 0.5 | generated after kickoff — excluded |
| Marvin Mims | WR · Rec | 3.5 | 2.9 | generated after kickoff — excluded |
| Marvin Mims | WR · Rec yds | 35 | 30 | generated after kickoff — excluded |
| Marvin Mims | WR · Rec TD | 0.1 | 0.1 | generated after kickoff — excluded |
| Justin Fields | QB · Pass yds | 155 | 140 | generated after kickoff — excluded |
| Justin Fields | QB · Pass TD | 0.8 | 0.8 | generated after kickoff — excluded |
| Justin Fields | QB · Rush yds | 35 | 45 | generated after kickoff — excluded |
| Tyquan Thornton | WR · Rec | 2.4 | 2.1 | generated after kickoff — excluded |
| Tyquan Thornton | WR · Rec yds | 50 | 50 | generated after kickoff — excluded |
| Tyquan Thornton | WR · Rec TD | 0.2 | 0.3 | generated after kickoff — excluded |
Saints at LionsSun Sep 13, 2026
| Player | Proj | Projected | Prior-yr avg | Actual |
|---|
| Tyler Shough | QB · Pass yds | 220 | 215 | 410 |
| Tyler Shough | QB · Pass TD | 1 | 0.9 | 3 |
| Tyler Shough | QB · INT | 0.6 | 0.5 | 2 |
| Chris Olave | WR · Rec | 5.7 | 6.2 | 10 |
| Chris Olave | WR · Rec yds | 75 | 75 | 180 |
| Chris Olave | WR · Rec TD | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0 |
| Juwan Johnson | TE · Rec | 4.1 | 4.5 | 3 |
| Juwan Johnson | TE · Rec yds | 50 | 50 | 55 |
| Juwan Johnson | TE · Rec TD | 0.1 | 0.2 | 1 |
| Jared Goff | QB · Pass yds | 265 | 270 | 205 |
| Jared Goff | QB · Pass TD | 1.7 | 2 | 2 |
| Jared Goff | QB · INT | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | RB · Rush yds | 70 | 70 | 155 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | RB · Rush TD | 0.6 | 0.8 | 2 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | RB · Rec yds | 35 | 35 | 30 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | WR · Rec | 6.7 | 7.3 | 10 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | WR · Rec yds | 80 | 90 | 65 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | WR · Rec TD | 0.4 | 0.7 | 2 |
| Travis Etienne | RB · Rush yds | 55 | 65 | generated after kickoff — excluded |
| Travis Etienne | RB · Rush TD | 0.3 | 0.4 | generated after kickoff — excluded |
| Travis Etienne | RB · Rec yds | 25 | 20 | generated after kickoff — excluded |
Cardinals at ChargersSun Sep 13, 2026
| Player | Proj | Projected | Prior-yr avg | Actual |
|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | QB · Pass yds | 250 | 240 | 275 |
| Jacoby Brissett | QB · Pass TD | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1 |
| Jacoby Brissett | QB · INT | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0 |
| Trey McBride | TE · Rec | 6.8 | 7.4 | 9 |
| Trey McBride | TE · Rec yds | 70 | 75 | 95 |
| Trey McBride | TE · Rec TD | 0.6 | 0.6 | 1 |
| Jeremiyah Love | RB · Rush yds | 55 | — | 40 |
| Jeremiyah Love | RB · Rush TD | 0.1 | — | 1 |
| Jeremiyah Love | RB · Rec yds | 10 | — | 10 |
| Justin Herbert | QB · Pass yds | 215 | 230 | 210 |
| Justin Herbert | QB · Pass TD | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1 |
| Justin Herbert | QB · Rush yds | 30 | 35 | 30 |
| Omarion Hampton | RB · Rush yds | 55 | 55 | 45 |
| Omarion Hampton | RB · Rush TD | 0.3 | 0.4 | 1 |
| Omarion Hampton | RB · Rec yds | 20 | 20 | 0 |
| Ladd McConkey | WR · Rec | 4 | 4.1 | 5 |
| Ladd McConkey | WR · Rec yds | 50 | 50 | 80 |
| Ladd McConkey | WR · Rec TD | 0.4 | 0.4 | 1 |
| Trey Lance | QB · Pass yds | 125 | 55 | generated after kickoff — excluded |
| Trey Lance | QB · Pass TD | 0.4 | 0 | generated after kickoff — excluded |
| Trey Lance | QB · INT | 0.6 | 0.2 | generated after kickoff — excluded |
| Charlie Kolar | TE · Rec | 1.7 | 1 | generated after kickoff — excluded |
| Charlie Kolar | TE · Rec yds | 20 | 15 | generated after kickoff — excluded |
| Charlie Kolar | TE · Rec TD | 0.2 | 0.2 | generated after kickoff — excluded |
Grades: green within 20% (counts:
within half a unit), amber to 50% (one unit),
red beyond or an inverted edge. ‘Prior-yr
avg’ is the naive baseline — the player’s prior-season per-game
average — shown so you can see the opponent adjustment earn its keep.
Projections joined to actuals by player id and kickoff-date window; a blank
actual means the game log has not landed yet (pending). Availability-adjusted
rows are voided, never re-graded.