2026 · Week 7 · Oct 17
Week 7 big-game preview
Each game leads with our line — a spread and total
built from the players on each roster — followed by the matchup underneath it: each side's
pass and rush units measured against the other's, and the stars' stat lines projected with the
same opponent adjustment the engine uses to rate the games themselves. Everything is frozen at
kickoff and graded against what actually happened.
Ohio St. at IndianaSat Oct 17, 4:00PM UTC
Our lineOhio State −13Total 64.5Projected Ohio State 39, Indiana 26Ohio State wins 77%All lines → Ohio St.'s 100th-percentile passing attack meets Indiana's 87th-percentile pass defense — Julian Sayin projects for 255 pass yds.
Ohio St. Pass O → Indiana Pass D
offense1656 · 100th pct
defense1348 · 87th pct
edge +308 offense★ biggest edge
Ohio St. Rush O → Indiana Rush D
offense1593 · 99th pct
defense1538 · 97th pct
edge +55 offense
Indiana Pass O → Ohio St. Pass D
offense1454 · 93rd pct
defense1519 · 100th pct
edge -65 defense
Indiana Rush O → Ohio St. Rush D
offense1404 · 79th pct
defense1616 · 100th pct
edge -212 defense
Ohio St.
255 Pass yds2 Pass TD0.6 INT
6.7 Rec115 Rec yds1 Rec TD
80 Rush yds0.5 Rush TD10 Rec yds
Indiana
230 Pass yds1.9 Pass TD0.9 INT
4.1 Rec70 Rec yds0.6 Rec TD
4.7 Rec65 Rec yds0.5 Rec TD
Auburn at GeorgiaSat Oct 17, 7:30PM UTC
Our lineGeorgia −16Total 51Projected Auburn 18, Georgia 34Georgia wins 82%All lines → Georgia's 100th-percentile pass defense looks to smother Auburn's 70th-percentile passing game — Byrum Brown projects for 225 pass yds.
Auburn Pass O → Georgia Pass D
offense1324 · 70th pct
defense1502 · 100th pct
edge -178 defense★ biggest edge
Auburn Rush O → Georgia Rush D
offense1513 · 94th pct
defense1682 · 100th pct
edge -169 defense
Georgia Pass O → Auburn Pass D
offense1570 · 99th pct
defense1394 · 93rd pct
edge +176 offense
Georgia Rush O → Auburn Rush D
offense1576 · 98th pct
defense1476 · 93rd pct
edge +100 offense
Auburn
225 Pass yds1.7 Pass TD70 Rush yds
4.6 Rec65 Rec yds0.3 Rec TD
2.4 Rec20 Rec yds0 Rec TD
Georgia
200 Pass yds1.9 Pass TD0.6 INT
1.9 Rec25 Rec yds0.3 Rec TD
1.7 Rec20 Rec yds0.2 Rec TD
Alabama at TennesseeSat Oct 17, 7:30PM UTC
Our lineAlabama −4.5Total 48.5Projected Alabama 27, Tennessee 22Alabama wins 61%All lines → Alabama's 98th-percentile passing attack meets Tennessee's 91st-percentile pass defense — Keelon Russell projects for 210 pass yds.
Alabama Pass O → Tennessee Pass D
offense1568 · 98th pct
defense1365 · 91st pct
edge +203 offense★ biggest edge
Alabama Rush O → Tennessee Rush D
offense1476 · 91st pct
defense1439 · 92nd pct
edge +37 offense
Tennessee Pass O → Alabama Pass D
offense1472 · 95th pct
defense1460 · 98th pct
edge +12 offense
Tennessee Rush O → Alabama Rush D
offense1542 · 95th pct
defense1518 · 96th pct
edge +24 offense
Alabama
210 Pass yds1.5 Pass TD25 Rush yds
1.9 Rec25 Rec yds0.1 Rec TD
2.3 Rec30 Rec yds0.1 Rec TD
Tennessee
150 Pass yds1.1 Pass TD0.6 INT
90 Rush yds1.1 Rush TD5 Rec yds
2.3 Rec25 Rec yds0 Rec TD
Penn State at MichiganSat Oct 17, 7:30PM UTC
Our lineMichigan −1Total 51Projected Penn State 25, Michigan 26Michigan wins 53%All lines → Penn State's 96th-percentile pass defense looks to smother Michigan's 66th-percentile passing game — Bryce Underwood projects for 175 pass yds.
Penn State Pass O → Michigan Pass D
offense1406 · 88th pct
defense1487 · 99th pct
edge -81 defense
Penn State Rush O → Michigan Rush D
offense1478 · 91st pct
defense1584 · 99th pct
edge -106 defense
Michigan Pass O → Penn State Pass D
offense1314 · 66th pct
defense1438 · 96th pct
edge -124 defense★ biggest edge
Michigan Rush O → Penn State Rush D
offense1550 · 96th pct
defense1482 · 95th pct
edge +68 offense
Penn State
205 Pass yds1.3 Pass TD0.9 INT
2.7 Rec30 Rec yds0.3 Rec TD
2.7 Rec20 Rec yds0.3 Rec TD
Michigan
175 Pass yds0.9 Pass TD25 Rush yds
4.4 Rec75 Rec yds0.5 Rec TD
2.8 Rec25 Rec yds0 Rec TD
Missouri at MississippiSat Oct 17, 7:30PM UTC
Our lineOle Miss −14Total 54Projected Missouri 20, Ole Miss 34Ole Miss wins 80%All lines → Mississippi's 99th-percentile passing attack meets Missouri's 93rd-percentile pass defense — Trinidad Chambliss projects for 275 pass yds.
Missouri Pass O → Mississippi Pass D
offense1370 · 83rd pct
defense1360 · 89th pct
edge +10 offense
Missouri Rush O → Mississippi Rush D
offense1510 · 93rd pct
defense1406 · 87th pct
edge +104 offense
Mississippi Pass O → Missouri Pass D
offense1606 · 99th pct
defense1388 · 93rd pct
edge +218 offense★ biggest edge
Mississippi Rush O → Missouri Rush D
offense1546 · 95th pct
defense1506 · 95th pct
edge +40 offense
Missouri
180 Pass yds1.4 Pass TD0.6 INT
85 Rush yds0.7 Rush TD10 Rec yds
4.9 Rec65 Rec yds0.4 Rec TD
Mississippi
275 Pass yds1.7 Pass TD0.6 INT
3 Rec35 Rec yds0.2 Rec TD
85 Rush yds1.3 Rush TD5 Rec yds
Florida at TexasSat Oct 17, 4:00PM UTC
Our lineTexas −11Total 51Projected Florida 20, Texas 31Texas wins 74%All lines → Texas's 96th-percentile passing attack meets Florida's 81st-percentile pass defense — Arch Manning projects for 235 pass yds.
Florida Pass O → Texas Pass D
offense1460 · 95th pct
defense1450 · 97th pct
edge +10 offense
Florida Rush O → Texas Rush D
offense1480 · 91st pct
defense1574 · 98th pct
edge -94 defense
Texas Pass O → Florida Pass D
offense1482 · 96th pct
defense1314 · 81st pct
edge +168 offense★ biggest edge
Texas Rush O → Florida Rush D
offense1473 · 90th pct
defense1407 · 88th pct
edge +66 offense
Florida
225 Pass yds1.2 Pass TD0.8 INT
100 Rush yds1 Rush TD10 Rec yds
1.9 Rec20 Rec yds0 Rec TD
Texas
235 Pass yds1.8 Pass TD0.6 INT
70 Rush yds0.3 Rush TD15 Rec yds
2.1 Rec25 Rec yds0 Rec TD
Florida St. at Miami (Fla.)Sat Oct 17, 11:00PM UTC
Our lineMiami −21Total 62Projected Florida State 20, Miami 42Miami wins 89%All lines → Miami (Fla.)'s 99th-percentile rush defense looks to smother Florida St.'s 83rd-percentile running game — Ashton Daniels projects for 200 pass yds.
Florida St. Pass O → Miami (Fla.) Pass D
offense1410 · 89th pct
defense1414 · 96th pct
edge -4 defense
Florida St. Rush O → Miami (Fla.) Rush D
offense1430 · 83rd pct
defense1579 · 99th pct
edge -149 defense★ biggest edge
Miami (Fla.) Pass O → Florida St. Pass D
offense1520 · 97th pct
defense1386 · 92nd pct
edge +134 offense
Miami (Fla.) Rush O → Florida St. Rush D
offense1473 · 90th pct
defense1388 · 86th pct
edge +85 offense
Florida St.
200 Pass yds1 Pass TD45 Rush yds
55 Rush yds0.2 Rush TD10 Rec yds
3.7 Rec65 Rec yds0.3 Rec TD
Miami (Fla.)
250 Pass yds2.2 Pass TD0.5 INT
80 Rush yds0.8 Rush TD5 Rec yds
6.6 Rec80 Rec yds0.8 Rec TD
Unit elos are each team's most recent pre-game rating; percentiles
rank them against every FBS unit active this season. Player projections use
matchup_project's engine-consistent adjusted form (season average plus the
inversion-derived opponent delta), the variant that beats the season-average and
league-median baselines in backtest. Stars are chosen by current rating and
in-team usage share. Forecasts, not guarantees — we grade them next week.