2026 NFL · Week 6 · Oct 15 – Oct 19
NFL Week 6 big-game preview
Not a pick — a production forecast. Our ratings
carry no win/loss input, so there is no spread here. Every projected player is
verified on his team's current 2026 roster — a 2025 producer who was
traded or signed away is projected for his new team against the new opponent
(and flagged), and a departed player never appears. Where the depth chart lists a
2026 rookie starter, we project him from his college-continuous rating
— something no other outlet can do.
Seahawks at BroncosThu Oct 15, 8:15PM ET
Seahawks's 100th-percentile pass defense looks to smother Broncos's 22nd-percentile passing game — Bo Nix projects for 230 pass yds.
Seahawks Pass O → Broncos Pass D
offense1496 · 84th pct
defense1490 · 94th pct
edge +6 offense
Seahawks Rush O → Broncos Rush D
offense1426 · 66th pct
defense1421 · 50th pct
edge +5 offense
Broncos Pass O → Seahawks Pass D
offense1346 · 22nd pct
defense1498 · 100th pct
edge -152 defense★ biggest edge
Broncos Rush O → Seahawks Rush D
offense1354 · 19th pct
defense1458 · 81st pct
edge -104 defense
Seahawks
Sam DarnoldQB · rtg 1453
205 Pass yds1.3 Pass TD0.8 INT
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR · rtg 1533
6.4 Rec85 Rec yds0.7 Rec TD
AJ BarnerTE · rtg 1344
2.8 Rec30 Rec yds0.2 Rec TD
Broncos
Bo NixQB · rtg 1466
230 Pass yds1.2 Pass TD0.7 INT
Evan EngramTE · rtg 1490
2.7 Rec30 Rec yds0 Rec TD
J.K. DobbinsRB · rtg 1504
65 Rush yds0.2 Rush TD5 Rec yds
Chargers at ChiefsSun Oct 18, 4:25PM ET
Chiefs's 56th-percentile rush defense looks to smother Chargers's 28th-percentile running game — Justin Herbert projects for 190 pass yds.
Chargers Pass O → Chiefs Pass D
offense1431 · 62nd pct
defense1480 · 88th pct
edge -49 defense
Chargers Rush O → Chiefs Rush D
offense1369 · 28th pct
defense1424 · 56th pct
edge -55 defense★ biggest edge
Chiefs Pass O → Chargers Pass D
offense1474 · 78th pct
defense1448 · 66th pct
edge +26 offense
Chiefs Rush O → Chargers Rush D
offense1412 · 50th pct
defense1365 · 28th pct
edge +47 offense
Chargers
Justin HerbertQB · rtg 1483
190 Pass yds0.9 Pass TD25 Rush yds
Omarion HamptonRB · rtg 1437
55 Rush yds0.5 Rush TD15 Rec yds
Ladd McConkeyWR · rtg 1423
3.4 Rec50 Rec yds0.3 Rec TD
Chiefs
Patrick Mahomes IIQB · rtg 1577
245 Pass yds1.5 Pass TD0.9 INT
Travis KelceTE · rtg 1680
3.9 Rec45 Rec yds0.2 Rec TD
Kenneth Walker IIIRB · rtg 1540
85 Rush yds0.6 Rush TD20 Rec yds
Texans at JaguarsSun Oct 18, 9:30AM ET
Jaguars's 91st-percentile rush defense looks to smother Texans's 12th-percentile running game — C.J. Stroud projects for 240 pass yds.
Texans Pass O → Jaguars Pass D
offense1432 · 66th pct
defense1364 · 28th pct
edge +68 offense
Texans Rush O → Jaguars Rush D
offense1322 · 12th pct
defense1490 · 91st pct
edge -168 defense★ biggest edge
Jaguars Pass O → Texans Pass D
offense1413 · 53rd pct
defense1428 · 53rd pct
edge -15 defense
Jaguars Rush O → Texans Rush D
offense1372 · 34th pct
defense1513 · 94th pct
edge -141 defense
Texans
C.J. StroudQB · rtg 1487
240 Pass yds1.2 Pass TD0.7 INT
Dalton SchultzTE · rtg 1484
4.3 Rec45 Rec yds0.1 Rec TD
David MontgomeryRB · rtg 1440
35 Rush yds0.3 Rush TD10 Rec yds
Jaguars
Trevor LawrenceQB · rtg 1476
245 Pass yds2.1 Pass TD0.7 INT
Brenton StrangeTE · rtg 1397
3.6 Rec45 Rec yds0.3 Rec TD
Bhayshul TutenRB · rtg 1388
45 Rush yds0.3 Rush TD10 Rec yds
Cowboys at PackersSun Oct 18, 8:20PM ET
Packers's 81st-percentile passing attack meets Cowboys's 12th-percentile pass defense — Jordan Love projects for 235 pass yds.
Cowboys Pass O → Packers Pass D
offense1521 · 91st pct
defense1453 · 72nd pct
edge +68 offense
Cowboys Rush O → Packers Rush D
offense1406 · 47th pct
defense1434 · 62nd pct
edge -28 defense
Packers Pass O → Cowboys Pass D
offense1477 · 81st pct
defense1324 · 12th pct
edge +153 offense★ biggest edge
Packers Rush O → Cowboys Rush D
offense1438 · 72nd pct
defense1336 · 12th pct
edge +102 offense
Cowboys
Dak PrescottQB · rtg 1547
265 Pass yds1.5 Pass TD0.7 INT
Jake FergusonTE · rtg 1431
3.1 Rec25 Rec yds0.3 Rec TD
Javonte WilliamsRB · rtg 1438
65 Rush yds0.6 Rush TD10 Rec yds
Packers
Jordan LoveQB · rtg 1454
235 Pass yds1.8 Pass TD0.5 INT
Tucker KraftTE · rtg 1448
3.9 Rec50 Rec yds0.5 Rec TD
Christian WatsonWR · rtg 1398
4.4 Rec70 Rec yds0.8 Rec TD
Cardinals at RamsSun Oct 18, 4:05PM ET
Rams's 97th-percentile passing attack meets Cardinals's 34th-percentile pass defense — Matthew Stafford projects for 305 pass yds.
Cardinals Pass O → Rams Pass D
offense1380 · 38th pct
defense1428 · 53rd pct
edge -48 defense
Cardinals Rush O → Rams Rush D
offense1440 · 75th pct
defense1462 · 84th pct
edge -22 defense
Rams Pass O → Cardinals Pass D
offense1544 · 97th pct
defense1382 · 34th pct
edge +162 offense★ biggest edge
Rams Rush O → Cardinals Rush D
offense1426 · 66th pct
defense1352 · 22nd pct
edge +74 offense
Cardinals
Jacoby BrissettQB · rtg 1410
250 Pass yds1.7 Pass TD0.9 INT
Trey McBrideTE · rtg 1566
7.2 Rec65 Rec yds0.5 Rec TD
50 Rush yds0.2 Rush TD10 Rec yds
Rams
Matthew StaffordQB · rtg 1553
305 Pass yds2.1 Pass TD0.8 INT
Kyren WilliamsRB · rtg 1589
70 Rush yds0.6 Rush TD25 Rec yds
Puka NacuaWR · rtg 1576
7.8 Rec110 Rec yds0.6 Rec TD
Commanders at NinersMon Oct 19, 8:15PM ET
Niners's 94th-percentile passing attack meets Commanders's 19th-percentile pass defense — Brock Purdy projects for 235 pass yds.
Commanders Pass O → Niners Pass D
offense1354 · 28th pct
defense1494 · 97th pct
edge -140 defense
Commanders Rush O → Niners Rush D
offense1476 · 91st pct
defense1465 · 88th pct
edge +11 offense
Niners Pass O → Commanders Pass D
offense1534 · 94th pct
defense1350 · 19th pct
edge +184 offense★ biggest edge
Niners Rush O → Commanders Rush D
offense1449 · 81st pct
defense1342 · 16th pct
edge +107 offense
Commanders
Jayden DanielsQB · rtg 1504
180 Pass yds1 Pass TD40 Rush yds
Chigoziem OkonkwoTE · rtg 1392
3.1 Rec30 Rec yds0.1 Rec TD
Jacory Croskey-MerrittRB · rtg 1329
45 Rush yds0.4 Rush TD5 Rec yds
Niners
Brock PurdyQB · rtg 1529
235 Pass yds2.1 Pass TD0.8 INT
George KittleTE · rtg 1622
4.9 Rec60 Rec yds0.6 Rec TD
Christian McCaffreyRB · rtg 1605
65 Rush yds0.6 Rush TD30 Rec yds
Ravens at BrownsSun Oct 18, 1:00PM ET
Ravens's 100th-percentile running attack meets Browns's 25th-percentile rush defense — Tyler Huntley projects for 145 pass yds.
Ravens Pass O → Browns Pass D
offense1419 · 59th pct
defense1459 · 75th pct
edge -40 defense
Ravens Rush O → Browns Rush D
offense1670 · 100th pct
defense1362 · 25th pct
edge +308 offense★ biggest edge
Browns Pass O → Ravens Pass D
offense1280 · 6th pct
defense1401 · 41st pct
edge -121 defense
Browns Rush O → Ravens Rush D
offense1370 · 31st pct
defense1514 · 97th pct
edge -144 defense
Ravens
Tyler HuntleyQB · rtg 1370
145 Pass yds0.7 Pass TD25 Rush yds
Derrick HenryRB · rtg 1689
95 Rush yds1.1 Rush TD10 Rec yds
Mark AndrewsTE · rtg 1539
3 Rec25 Rec yds0 Rec TD
Browns
Deshaun WatsonQB · rtg 1492
205 Pass yds1.2 Pass TD25 Rush yds
Harold Fannin Jr.TE · rtg 1438
3.8 Rec40 Rec yds0.4 Rec TD
Quinshon JudkinsRB · rtg 1445
45 Rush yds0.2 Rush TD15 Rec yds
Bears at FalconsSun Oct 18, 1:00PM ET
Falcons's 94th-percentile running attack meets Bears's 19th-percentile rush defense — Michael Penix Jr. projects for 225 pass yds.
Bears Pass O → Falcons Pass D
offense1345 · 19th pct
defense1414 · 47th pct
edge -69 defense
Bears Rush O → Falcons Rush D
offense1471 · 88th pct
defense1400 · 44th pct
edge +71 offense
Falcons Pass O → Bears Pass D
offense1406 · 50th pct
defense1392 · 38th pct
edge +14 offense
Falcons Rush O → Bears Rush D
offense1491 · 94th pct
defense1345 · 19th pct
edge +146 offense★ biggest edge
Bears
Tyson BagentQB · rtg 1381
140 Pass yds0.4 Pass TD0.7 INT
D'Andre SwiftRB · rtg 1512
70 Rush yds0.7 Rush TD15 Rec yds
Colston LovelandTE · rtg 1440
4.3 Rec50 Rec yds0.3 Rec TD
Falcons
Michael Penix Jr.QB · rtg 1447
225 Pass yds1 Pass TD0.4 INT
Bijan RobinsonRB · rtg 1605
100 Rush yds0.6 Rush TD35 Rec yds
Kyle PittsTE · rtg 1510
4 Rec50 Rec yds0.3 Rec TD
Roster gate: nflverse 2026 roster (status ACT), fetched 2026-10-13 04:12;
starters from the nflverse depth chart snapshot 2026-10-13T06:02:07Z. Unit elos are each
team's most recent pre-game rating; percentiles rank them against all 32 teams this
season. Veteran projections use matchup_project's engine-consistent adjusted form
(season average + opponent delta). Rookie projections use the engine-inverted stat
from the r-dial college-continuous seed (1400 + r × college final). Forecasts,
not guarantees — we grade them next week.