2026 · Week 2 · September 21, 2026 · NFL

Week 2 scorecard

The preview exactly as we published it before kickoff — the unit mismatches and player production projections — now with the actual box score next to every number and a grade on each row. Nothing here was edited after the games kicked off. See the full season track record →

Week summary

144

Projections graded

39 voided · 0 pending · 9 post-kickoff excluded

49%

Beat naive baseline

on 132 comparable rows

5–3

Components vs naive

MAE win/loss by stat

—

Unit-edge record

biggest-mismatch calls

Component	n	Our MAE	Naive MAE	Verdict
Pass yds	15	72.83	79.85	beats naive
Pass TD	15	1.07	1.08	beats naive
INT	11	0.49	0.49	beats naive
Rush yds	19	26.46	24.36	trails naive
Rush TD	15	0.48	0.51	beats naive
Rec	18	2.48	2.10	trails naive
Rec yds	33	26.01	24.66	trails naive
Rec TD	18	0.47	0.53	beats naive

39 row(s) voided (adjusted for availability or replaced by a starter change before kickoff) — shown struck-through, excluded from every number above.

9 row(s) came from a preview regeneration written after its game had kicked off — never on record, shown struck-through for transparency, excluded from every number above. Each game is graded only against its last pre-kickoff publication.

MAE = mean absolute error vs the actual box score, in each stat’s own units. Naive = the player’s prior-season per-game average.

Lions at BillsThu Sep 17, 2026

Player	Proj	Projected	Prior-yr avg	Actual
Jared Goff	QB · Pass yds	260	270	325
Jared Goff	QB · Pass TD	1.6	2	4
Jared Goff	QB · INT	0.7	0.5	0
Jahmyr Gibbs	RB · Rush yds	75	70	50
Jahmyr Gibbs	RB · Rush TD	0.7	0.8	0
Jahmyr Gibbs	RB · Rec yds	35	35	60
Amon-Ra St. Brown	WR · Rec	6.8	7.3	9
Amon-Ra St. Brown	WR · Rec yds	80	90	140
Amon-Ra St. Brown	WR · Rec TD	0.4	0.7	2
DJ Moore	WR · Rec	3.6	3.4	0
DJ Moore	WR · Rec yds	50	45	0
DJ Moore	WR · Rec TD	0.6	0.4	0
Dalton Kincaid	TE · Rec	3.8	3.7	7
Dalton Kincaid	TE · Rec yds	55	50	95
Dalton Kincaid	TE · Rec TD	0.4	0.5	1
James Cook	RB · Rush yds	80	95	135
James Cook	RB · Rush TD	0.3	0.6	1
James Cook	RB · Rec yds	20	15	5
Josh Allen	QB · Pass yds	245	235	generated after kickoff — excluded
Josh Allen	QB · Pass TD	1.6	1.6	generated after kickoff — excluded
Josh Allen	QB · Rush yds	30	40	generated after kickoff — excluded
Greg Dortch	WR · Rec	3.3	2.4	generated after kickoff — excluded
Greg Dortch	WR · Rec yds	30	15	generated after kickoff — excluded
Greg Dortch	WR · Rec TD	0.2	0.2	generated after kickoff — excluded

Saints at RavensSun Sep 20, 2026

Player	Proj	Projected	Prior-yr avg	Actual
Tyler Shough	QB · Pass yds	230	215	250
Tyler Shough	QB · Pass TD	1.1	0.9	1
Tyler Shough	QB · INT	0.7	0.5	0
Chris Olave	WR · Rec	6	6.2	8
Chris Olave	WR · Rec yds	85	75	85
Chris Olave	WR · Rec TD	0.5	0.6	1
Barion Brown	WR · Rec	3.9	—	DNP
Barion Brown	WR · Rec yds	50	—	DNP
Barion Brown	WR · Rec TD	0	—	DNP
Tyler Huntley	QB · Pass yds	150	85	DNP
Tyler Huntley	QB · Pass TD	0.7	0.4	DNP
Tyler Huntley	QB · Rush yds	30	30	DNP
Derrick Henry	RB · Rush yds	100	95	70
Derrick Henry	RB · Rush TD	1	0.9	1
Derrick Henry	RB · Rec yds	10	10	20
Zay Flowers	WR · Rec	4.6	5.1	adjusted pre-game
Zay Flowers	WR · Rec yds	70	70	adjusted pre-game
Zay Flowers	WR · Rec TD	0.3	0.3	adjusted pre-game
Rasheen Ali	RB · Rush yds	30	0	0
Rasheen Ali	RB · Rush TD	0.1	0	0
Rasheen Ali	RB · Rec yds	5	5	0
Lamar Jackson	QB · Pass yds	205	195	generated after kickoff — excluded
Lamar Jackson	QB · Pass TD	1.3	1.6	generated after kickoff — excluded
Lamar Jackson	QB · INT	0.7	0.5	generated after kickoff — excluded

Dolphins at NinersSun Sep 20, 2026

Player	Proj	Projected	Prior-yr avg	Actual
Brady Cook	QB · Pass yds	170	150	replaced pre-game
Brady Cook	QB · Pass TD	0.6	0.4	replaced pre-game
Brady Cook	QB · INT	1.3	1.4	replaced pre-game
DJ Herman	RB · Rush yds	55	—	0
DJ Herman	RB · Rush TD	0.1	—	0
DJ Herman	RB · Rec yds	10	—	20
Devon Achane	RB · Rush yds	80	85	75
Devon Achane	RB · Rush TD	0.4	0.5	0
Devon Achane	RB · Rec yds	25	30	20
Brock Purdy	QB · Pass yds	230	235	285
Brock Purdy	QB · Pass TD	1.9	2	2
Brock Purdy	QB · INT	1.1	1.2	0
Mike Evans	WR · Rec	4.4	4.3	3
Mike Evans	WR · Rec yds	55	55	55
Mike Evans	WR · Rec TD	0.4	0.4	0
Christian McCaffrey	RB · Rush yds	65	70	25
Christian McCaffrey	RB · Rush TD	0.5	0.5	2
Christian McCaffrey	RB · Rec yds	35	55	45
Malik Willis	QB · Pass yds	155	105	195
Malik Willis	QB · Pass TD	0.7	0.8	1
Malik Willis	QB · Rush yds	25	30	5

Seahawks at CardinalsSun Sep 20, 2026

Player	Proj	Projected	Prior-yr avg	Actual
Jadarian Price	RB · Rush yds	55	—	50
Jadarian Price	RB · Rush TD	0.1	—	0
Jadarian Price	RB · Rec yds	10	—	10
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	WR · Rec	6.1	6.8	9
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	WR · Rec yds	85	100	155
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	WR · Rec TD	0.6	0.6	3
Elijah Arroyo	TE · Rec	2	1.7	replaced pre-game
Elijah Arroyo	TE · Rec yds	20	20	replaced pre-game
Elijah Arroyo	TE · Rec TD	0.1	0.1	replaced pre-game
Jacoby Brissett	QB · Pass yds	265	240	95
Jacoby Brissett	QB · Pass TD	1.6	1.6	1
Jacoby Brissett	QB · INT	0.8	0.6	1
Trey McBride	TE · Rec	7.1	7.4	8
Trey McBride	TE · Rec yds	70	75	40
Trey McBride	TE · Rec TD	0.7	0.6	1
Jeremiyah Love	RB · Rush yds	50	—	replaced pre-game
Jeremiyah Love	RB · Rush TD	0.3	—	replaced pre-game
Jeremiyah Love	RB · Rec yds	10	—	replaced pre-game
Michael Wilson	WR · Rec	5.4	4.6	2
Michael Wilson	WR · Rec yds	70	60	20
Michael Wilson	WR · Rec TD	0.4	0.4	0
Sam Darnold	QB · Pass yds	205	235	adjusted pre-game
Sam Darnold	QB · Pass TD	1.1	1.5	adjusted pre-game
Sam Darnold	QB · INT	0.7	0.7	adjusted pre-game
Drew Lock	QB · Pass yds	175	5	235
Drew Lock	QB · Pass TD	0.8	0	3
Drew Lock	QB · INT	0.6	0	0

Jaguars at BroncosSun Sep 20, 2026

Player	Proj	Projected	Prior-yr avg	Actual
Quinn Ewers	QB · Pass yds	180	155	replaced pre-game
Quinn Ewers	QB · Pass TD	0.8	0.8	replaced pre-game
Quinn Ewers	QB · INT	0.9	0.8	replaced pre-game
Parker Washington	WR · Rec	4.3	4.1	7
Parker Washington	WR · Rec yds	65	60	100
Parker Washington	WR · Rec TD	0.4	0.4	0
Bhayshul Tuten	RB · Rush yds	30	20	65
Bhayshul Tuten	RB · Rush TD	0.3	0.3	1
Bhayshul Tuten	RB · Rec yds	5	5	-5
Jarrett Stidham	QB · Pass yds	200	65	replaced pre-game
Jarrett Stidham	QB · Pass TD	1.1	0.5	replaced pre-game
Jarrett Stidham	QB · INT	0.9	0.5	replaced pre-game
J.K. Dobbins	RB · Rush yds	70	75	35
J.K. Dobbins	RB · Rush TD	0.3	0.4	0
J.K. Dobbins	RB · Rec yds	5	5	0
Marvin Mims	WR · Rec	3.6	2.9	adjusted pre-game
Marvin Mims	WR · Rec yds	40	30	adjusted pre-game
Marvin Mims	WR · Rec TD	0.1	0.1	adjusted pre-game
Troy Franklin	WR · Rec	4	4.1	replaced pre-game
Troy Franklin	WR · Rec yds	45	45	replaced pre-game
Troy Franklin	WR · Rec TD	0.3	0.4	replaced pre-game
Trevor Lawrence	QB · Pass yds	235	235	190
Trevor Lawrence	QB · Pass TD	1.9	1.8	0
Trevor Lawrence	QB · INT	0.8	0.8	1
Bo Nix	QB · Pass yds	235	235	290
Bo Nix	QB · Pass TD	1.5	1.6	1
Bo Nix	QB · INT	0.7	0.7	1
Adam Prentice	RB · Rush yds	15	5	0
Adam Prentice	RB · Rush TD	0	0	0
Adam Prentice	RB · Rec yds	5	5	0

Colts at ChiefsSun Sep 20, 2026

Player	Proj	Projected	Prior-yr avg	Actual
Daniel Jones	QB · Pass yds	225	240	210
Daniel Jones	QB · Pass TD	1.3	1.5	1
Daniel Jones	QB · INT	0.8	0.6	1
Jonathan Taylor	RB · Rush yds	85	95	90
Jonathan Taylor	RB · Rush TD	0.9	1.1	2
Jonathan Taylor	RB · Rec yds	20	20	40
Ashton Dulin	WR · Rec	2.3	0.5	adjusted pre-game
Ashton Dulin	WR · Rec yds	35	10	adjusted pre-game
Ashton Dulin	WR · Rec TD	0	0	adjusted pre-game
Justin Fields	QB · Pass yds	165	140	replaced pre-game
Justin Fields	QB · Pass TD	0.9	0.8	replaced pre-game
Justin Fields	QB · Rush yds	35	45	replaced pre-game
Kenneth Walker III	RB · Rush yds	75	65	115
Kenneth Walker III	RB · Rush TD	0.5	0.5	0
Kenneth Walker III	RB · Rec yds	25	20	60
Tyquan Thornton	WR · Rec	2.7	2.1	4
Tyquan Thornton	WR · Rec yds	50	50	85
Tyquan Thornton	WR · Rec TD	0.3	0.3	0
Keenan Allen	WR · Rec	4.2	4.7	1
Keenan Allen	WR · Rec yds	40	45	5
Keenan Allen	WR · Rec TD	0	0.2	0
Patrick Mahomes II	QB · Pass yds	255	255	380
Patrick Mahomes II	QB · Pass TD	1.7	1.6	3
Patrick Mahomes II	QB · INT	0.8	0.8	0

Steelers at PatriotsSun Sep 20, 2026

Player	Proj	Projected	Prior-yr avg	Actual
Aaron Rodgers	QB · Pass yds	205	205	185
Aaron Rodgers	QB · Pass TD	1	1.4	0
Aaron Rodgers	QB · INT	0.6	0.5	1
Jaylen Warren	RB · Rush yds	55	60	45
Jaylen Warren	RB · Rush TD	0.4	0.4	0
Jaylen Warren	RB · Rec yds	15	20	35
Kaden Wetjen	WR · Rec	3.8	—	DNP
Kaden Wetjen	WR · Rec yds	50	—	DNP
Kaden Wetjen	WR · Rec TD	0	—	DNP
Drake Maye	QB · Pass yds	240	250	210
Drake Maye	QB · Pass TD	1.6	1.8	0
Drake Maye	QB · Rush yds	25	30	15
Romeo Doubs	WR · Rec	4.3	3.9	3
Romeo Doubs	WR · Rec yds	55	55	95
Romeo Doubs	WR · Rec TD	0.4	0.4	0
Kyle Williams	WR · Rec	2	1.1	1
Kyle Williams	WR · Rec yds	35	20	10
Kyle Williams	WR · Rec TD	0.3	0.3	0

Giants at RamsMon Sep 21, 2026

Player	Proj	Projected	Prior-yr avg	Actual
Jameis Winston	QB · Pass yds	200	190	replaced pre-game
Jameis Winston	QB · Pass TD	0.8	0.7	replaced pre-game
Jameis Winston	QB · INT	0.9	0.7	replaced pre-game
Malik Nabers	WR · Rec	4.5	4.5	1
Malik Nabers	WR · Rec yds	65	70	0
Malik Nabers	WR · Rec TD	0.2	0.5	0
Isaiah Likely	TE · Rec	2.9	2.5	5
Isaiah Likely	TE · Rec yds	30	30	35
Isaiah Likely	TE · Rec TD	0.2	0.1	0
Kyren Williams	RB · Rush yds	70	70	85
Kyren Williams	RB · Rush TD	0.7	0.6	0
Kyren Williams	RB · Rec yds	15	20	10
Xavier Smith	WR · Rec	2.3	1.3	DNP
Xavier Smith	WR · Rec yds	35	20	DNP
Xavier Smith	WR · Rec TD	0	0	DNP
Puka Nacua	WR · Rec	6.8	8.1	replaced pre-game
Puka Nacua	WR · Rec yds	100	110	replaced pre-game
Puka Nacua	WR · Rec TD	0.6	0.6	replaced pre-game
Jaxson Dart	QB · Pass yds	200	160	20
Jaxson Dart	QB · Pass TD	1.3	1.1	0
Jaxson Dart	QB · Rush yds	35	35	0
Matthew Stafford	QB · Pass yds	270	280	325
Matthew Stafford	QB · Pass TD	2.1	2.6	4
Matthew Stafford	QB · INT	0.7	0.5	1

Grades: green within 20% (counts: within half a unit), amber to 50% (one unit), red beyond or an inverted edge. ‘Prior-yr avg’ is the naive baseline — the player’s prior-season per-game average — shown so you can see the opponent adjustment earn its keep. Projections joined to actuals by player id and kickoff-date window; a blank actual means the game log has not landed yet (pending). Availability-adjusted rows are voided, never re-graded.