2026 · Week 3 · September 27, 2026 · NFL
Week 3 scorecard
The preview exactly as we published it before kickoff —
the unit mismatches and player production projections — now with the
actual box score next to every number and a grade on each row. Nothing
here was edited after the games kicked off. See the full
season track record →
Week summary
144
Projections graded
12 voided · 0 pending
46%
Beat naive baseline
on 138 comparable rows
6–2
Components vs naive
MAE win/loss by stat
—
Unit-edge record
biggest-mismatch calls
| Component | n | Our MAE | Naive MAE | Verdict |
|---|
| Pass yds | 16 | 54.29 | 55.41 | beats naive |
| Pass TD | 16 | 0.73 | 0.81 | beats naive |
| INT | 13 | 0.54 | 0.68 | beats naive |
| Rush yds | 18 | 30.29 | 27.39 | trails naive |
| Rush TD | 15 | 0.49 | 0.56 | beats naive |
| Rec | 17 | 1.76 | 1.59 | trails naive |
| Rec yds | 32 | 22.72 | 22.73 | beats naive |
| Rec TD | 17 | 0.43 | 0.45 | beats naive |
12 row(s) voided (adjusted for availability or replaced by a starter change before kickoff) — shown struck-through, excluded from every number above.
MAE = mean absolute error vs the actual box score, in each stat’s own units. Naive = the player’s prior-season per-game average.
Rams at BroncosSun Sep 27, 2026
| Player | Proj | Projected | Prior-yr avg | Actual |
|---|
| Matthew Stafford | QB · Pass yds | 270 | 280 | 390 |
| Matthew Stafford | QB · Pass TD | 2 | 2.6 | 2 |
| Matthew Stafford | QB · INT | 0.8 | 0.5 | 2 |
| Kyren Williams | RB · Rush yds | 65 | 70 | 90 |
| Kyren Williams | RB · Rush TD | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0 |
| Kyren Williams | RB · Rec yds | 15 | 20 | 70 |
| Xavier Smith | WR · Rec | 2.2 | 1.3 | DNP |
| Xavier Smith | WR · Rec yds | 35 | 20 | DNP |
| Xavier Smith | WR · Rec TD | 0 | 0 | DNP |
| Bo Nix | QB · Pass yds | 230 | 235 | 185 |
| Bo Nix | QB · Pass TD | 1.4 | 1.6 | 2 |
| Bo Nix | QB · INT | 0.8 | 0.7 | 1 |
| Evan Engram | TE · Rec | 2.9 | 3.1 | DNP |
| Evan Engram | TE · Rec yds | 30 | 30 | DNP |
| Evan Engram | TE · Rec TD | 0.1 | 0.1 | DNP |
| J.K. Dobbins | RB · Rush yds | 65 | 75 | 50 |
| J.K. Dobbins | RB · Rush TD | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0 |
| J.K. Dobbins | RB · Rec yds | 5 | 5 | 5 |
Ravens at CowboysSun Sep 27, 2026
| Player | Proj | Projected | Prior-yr avg | Actual |
|---|
| Lamar Jackson | QB · Pass yds | 210 | 195 | 185 |
| Lamar Jackson | QB · Pass TD | 1.3 | 1.6 | 2 |
| Lamar Jackson | QB · INT | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Mark Andrews | TE · Rec | 3 | 2.8 | 3 |
| Mark Andrews | TE · Rec yds | 30 | 25 | 25 |
| Mark Andrews | TE · Rec TD | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0 |
| Derrick Henry | RB · Rush yds | 100 | 95 | 90 |
| Derrick Henry | RB · Rush TD | 1.1 | 0.9 | 2 |
| Derrick Henry | RB · Rec yds | 10 | 10 | 0 |
| Dak Prescott | QB · Pass yds | 255 | 270 | 275 |
| Dak Prescott | QB · Pass TD | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1 |
| Dak Prescott | QB · INT | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0 |
| Jake Ferguson | TE · Rec | 3.5 | 4.8 | 3 |
| Jake Ferguson | TE · Rec yds | 30 | 35 | 25 |
| Jake Ferguson | TE · Rec TD | 0.4 | 0.5 | 1 |
| Javonte Williams | RB · Rush yds | 60 | 75 | replaced pre-game |
| Javonte Williams | RB · Rush TD | 0.4 | 0.7 | replaced pre-game |
| Javonte Williams | RB · Rec yds | 10 | 10 | replaced pre-game |
| CeeDee Lamb | WR · Rec | 5.2 | 5.8 | 7 |
| CeeDee Lamb | WR · Rec yds | 75 | 85 | 110 |
| CeeDee Lamb | WR · Rec TD | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0 |
Chargers at BillsSun Sep 27, 2026
| Player | Proj | Projected | Prior-yr avg | Actual |
|---|
| Justin Herbert | QB · Pass yds | 210 | 230 | 225 |
| Justin Herbert | QB · Pass TD | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1 |
| Justin Herbert | QB · Rush yds | 30 | 35 | 15 |
| Ladd McConkey | WR · Rec | 3.7 | 4.1 | 4 |
| Ladd McConkey | WR · Rec yds | 45 | 50 | 65 |
| Ladd McConkey | WR · Rec TD | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0 |
| Omarion Hampton | RB · Rush yds | 55 | 55 | 55 |
| Omarion Hampton | RB · Rush TD | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0 |
| Omarion Hampton | RB · Rec yds | 15 | 20 | 0 |
| Josh Allen | QB · Pass yds | 245 | 235 | 205 |
| Josh Allen | QB · Pass TD | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0 |
| Josh Allen | QB · Rush yds | 35 | 40 | 20 |
| James Cook | RB · Rush yds | 80 | 95 | 155 |
| James Cook | RB · Rush TD | 0.4 | 0.6 | 1 |
| James Cook | RB · Rec yds | 15 | 15 | 0 |
| Dalton Kincaid | TE · Rec | 3.8 | 3.7 | 2 |
| Dalton Kincaid | TE · Rec yds | 55 | 50 | 40 |
| Dalton Kincaid | TE · Rec TD | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0 |
Falcons at PackersThu Sep 24, 2026
| Player | Proj | Projected | Prior-yr avg | Actual |
|---|
| Cooper Rush | QB · Pass yds | 145 | 75 | replaced pre-game |
| Cooper Rush | QB · Pass TD | 0.5 | 0 | replaced pre-game |
| Cooper Rush | QB · INT | 1.4 | 1 | replaced pre-game |
| Drake London | WR · Rec | 4.8 | 5.7 | 9 |
| Drake London | WR · Rec yds | 70 | 75 | 195 |
| Drake London | WR · Rec TD | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0 |
| Bijan Robinson | RB · Rush yds | 80 | 85 | 195 |
| Bijan Robinson | RB · Rush TD | 0.3 | 0.4 | 2 |
| Bijan Robinson | RB · Rec yds | 35 | 50 | 20 |
| Jordan Love | QB · Pass yds | 230 | 230 | 310 |
| Jordan Love | QB · Pass TD | 1.6 | 1.7 | 2 |
| Jordan Love | QB · INT | 0.5 | 0.4 | 1 |
| Tucker Kraft | TE · Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 4 |
| Tucker Kraft | TE · Rec yds | 50 | 60 | 25 |
| Tucker Kraft | TE · Rec TD | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0 |
| Christian Watson | WR · Rec | 3.8 | 3.5 | 7 |
| Christian Watson | WR · Rec yds | 65 | 60 | 95 |
| Christian Watson | WR · Rec TD | 0.6 | 0.6 | 1 |
| Michael Penix Jr. | QB · Pass yds | 220 | 220 | 255 |
| Michael Penix Jr. | QB · Pass TD | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Michael Penix Jr. | QB · INT | 0.5 | 0.3 | 1 |
Vikings at BuccaneersSun Sep 27, 2026
| Player | Proj | Projected | Prior-yr avg | Actual |
|---|
| Carson Wentz | QB · Pass yds | 220 | 245 | DNP |
| Carson Wentz | QB · Pass TD | 1.3 | 1.2 | DNP |
| Carson Wentz | QB · INT | 0.7 | 1 | DNP |
| Justin Jefferson | WR · Rec | 4.7 | 4.9 | replaced pre-game |
| Justin Jefferson | WR · Rec yds | 55 | 60 | replaced pre-game |
| Justin Jefferson | WR · Rec TD | 0.2 | 0.1 | replaced pre-game |
| Aaron Jones Sr. | RB · Rush yds | 50 | 45 | 60 |
| Aaron Jones Sr. | RB · Rush TD | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0 |
| Aaron Jones Sr. | RB · Rec yds | 15 | 15 | 35 |
| Baker Mayfield | QB · Pass yds | 200 | 215 | 215 |
| Baker Mayfield | QB · Pass TD | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1 |
| Baker Mayfield | QB · INT | 0.9 | 0.6 | 1 |
| Cade Otton | TE · Rec | 4.1 | 4.2 | 3 |
| Cade Otton | TE · Rec yds | 40 | 40 | 55 |
| Cade Otton | TE · Rec TD | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0 |
| Bucky Irving | RB · Rush yds | 60 | 60 | 45 |
| Bucky Irving | RB · Rush TD | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0 |
| Bucky Irving | RB · Rec yds | 25 | 30 | 10 |
| Kyler Murray | QB · Pass yds | 185 | 190 | adjusted pre-game |
| Kyler Murray | QB · Pass TD | 1.1 | 1.2 | adjusted pre-game |
| Kyler Murray | QB · Rush yds | 20 | 35 | adjusted pre-game |
| T.J. Hockenson | TE · Rec | 3.5 | 3.4 | 2 |
| T.J. Hockenson | TE · Rec yds | 30 | 30 | 10 |
| T.J. Hockenson | TE · Rec TD | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0 |
Cardinals at NinersSun Sep 27, 2026
| Player | Proj | Projected | Prior-yr avg | Actual |
|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | QB · Pass yds | 250 | 240 | 280 |
| Jacoby Brissett | QB · Pass TD | 1.6 | 1.6 | 2 |
| Jacoby Brissett | QB · INT | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0 |
| Trey McBride | TE · Rec | 7 | 7.4 | 9 |
| Trey McBride | TE · Rec yds | 70 | 75 | 75 |
| Trey McBride | TE · Rec TD | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0 |
| Jeremiyah Love | RB · Rush yds | 45 | — | 90 |
| Jeremiyah Love | RB · Rush TD | 0.2 | — | 0 |
| Jeremiyah Love | RB · Rec yds | 10 | — | 20 |
| Brock Purdy | QB · Pass yds | 235 | 235 | 295 |
| Brock Purdy | QB · Pass TD | 1.9 | 2 | 4 |
| Brock Purdy | QB · INT | 1 | 1.2 | 0 |
| George Kittle | TE · Rec | 4.5 | 5.3 | 6 |
| George Kittle | TE · Rec yds | 50 | 60 | 80 |
| George Kittle | TE · Rec TD | 0.5 | 0.6 | 2 |
| Christian McCaffrey | RB · Rush yds | 65 | 70 | 75 |
| Christian McCaffrey | RB · Rush TD | 0.6 | 0.5 | 1 |
| Christian McCaffrey | RB · Rec yds | 35 | 55 | 40 |
Patriots at JaguarsSun Sep 27, 2026
| Player | Proj | Projected | Prior-yr avg | Actual |
|---|
| Drake Maye | QB · Pass yds | 235 | 250 | 200 |
| Drake Maye | QB · Pass TD | 1.5 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Drake Maye | QB · Rush yds | 25 | 30 | 20 |
| Hunter Henry | TE · Rec | 3.5 | 3.3 | 1 |
| Hunter Henry | TE · Rec yds | 45 | 40 | 5 |
| Hunter Henry | TE · Rec TD | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | RB · Rush yds | 50 | 45 | 20 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | RB · Rush TD | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | RB · Rec yds | 25 | 25 | 15 |
| Trevor Lawrence | QB · Pass yds | 225 | 235 | 180 |
| Trevor Lawrence | QB · Pass TD | 1.8 | 1.8 | 3 |
| Trevor Lawrence | QB · INT | 0.9 | 0.8 | 1 |
| Parker Washington | WR · Rec | 4.7 | 4.1 | 3 |
| Parker Washington | WR · Rec yds | 70 | 60 | 40 |
| Parker Washington | WR · Rec TD | 0.4 | 0.4 | 1 |
| Bhayshul Tuten | RB · Rush yds | 35 | 20 | 75 |
| Bhayshul Tuten | RB · Rush TD | 0.3 | 0.3 | 1 |
| Bhayshul Tuten | RB · Rec yds | 5 | 5 | 15 |
Chiefs at DolphinsSun Sep 27, 2026
| Player | Proj | Projected | Prior-yr avg | Actual |
|---|
| Patrick Mahomes II | QB · Pass yds | 260 | 255 | 245 |
| Patrick Mahomes II | QB · Pass TD | 1.8 | 1.6 | 2 |
| Patrick Mahomes II | QB · INT | 0.8 | 0.8 | 1 |
| Travis Kelce | TE · Rec | 4.5 | 4.5 | 2 |
| Travis Kelce | TE · Rec yds | 50 | 50 | 60 |
| Travis Kelce | TE · Rec TD | 0.3 | 0.3 | 1 |
| Kenneth Walker III | RB · Rush yds | 80 | 65 | 70 |
| Kenneth Walker III | RB · Rush TD | 0.5 | 0.5 | 1 |
| Kenneth Walker III | RB · Rec yds | 25 | 20 | 5 |
| Malik Willis | QB · Pass yds | 160 | 105 | 210 |
| Malik Willis | QB · Pass TD | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0 |
| Malik Willis | QB · INT | 0.5 | 0 | 1 |
| Devon Achane | RB · Rush yds | 85 | 85 | 15 |
| Devon Achane | RB · Rush TD | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Devon Achane | RB · Rec yds | 25 | 30 | 0 |
| DJ Herman | RB · Rush yds | 55 | — | DNP |
| DJ Herman | RB · Rush TD | 0.1 | — | DNP |
| DJ Herman | RB · Rec yds | 10 | — | DNP |
Grades: green within 20% (counts:
within half a unit), amber to 50% (one unit),
red beyond or an inverted edge. ‘Prior-yr
avg’ is the naive baseline — the player’s prior-season per-game
average — shown so you can see the opponent adjustment earn its keep.
Projections joined to actuals by player id and kickoff-date window; a blank
actual means the game log has not landed yet (pending). Availability-adjusted
rows are voided, never re-graded.