2026 · Week 4 · October 5, 2026 · NFL
Week 4 scorecard
The preview exactly as we published it before kickoff —
the unit mismatches and player production projections — now with the
actual box score next to every number and a grade on each row. Nothing
here was edited after the games kicked off. See the full
season track record →
Week summary
144
Projections graded
24 voided · 0 pending
59%
Beat naive baseline
on 138 comparable rows
7–1
Components vs naive
MAE win/loss by stat
—
Unit-edge record
biggest-mismatch calls
| Component | n | Our MAE | Naive MAE | Verdict |
|---|
| Pass yds | 16 | 45.42 | 46.67 | beats naive |
| Pass TD | 16 | 0.61 | 0.69 | beats naive |
| INT | 12 | 0.73 | 0.69 | trails naive |
| Rush yds | 17 | 23.28 | 24.86 | beats naive |
| Rush TD | 13 | 0.70 | 0.73 | beats naive |
| Rec | 19 | 2.13 | 2.19 | beats naive |
| Rec yds | 32 | 21.81 | 24.47 | beats naive |
| Rec TD | 19 | 0.34 | 0.36 | beats naive |
24 row(s) voided (adjusted for availability or replaced by a starter change before kickoff) — shown struck-through, excluded from every number above.
MAE = mean absolute error vs the actual box score, in each stat’s own units. Naive = the player’s prior-season per-game average.
Patriots at BillsSun Oct 4, 2026
| Player | Proj | Projected | Prior-yr avg | Actual |
|---|
| Drake Maye | QB · Pass yds | 225 | 250 | 270 |
| Drake Maye | QB · Pass TD | 1.3 | 1.8 | 3 |
| Drake Maye | QB · Rush yds | 30 | 30 | 55 |
| Hunter Henry | TE · Rec | 3.1 | 3.3 | 5 |
| Hunter Henry | TE · Rec yds | 40 | 40 | 60 |
| Hunter Henry | TE · Rec TD | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | RB · Rush yds | 55 | 45 | 45 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | RB · Rush TD | 0.3 | 0.4 | 1 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | RB · Rec yds | 25 | 25 | 25 |
| Josh Allen | QB · Pass yds | 235 | 235 | 255 |
| Josh Allen | QB · Pass TD | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1 |
| Josh Allen | QB · Rush yds | 35 | 40 | 5 |
| James Cook | RB · Rush yds | 85 | 95 | 75 |
| James Cook | RB · Rush TD | 0.5 | 0.6 | 1 |
| James Cook | RB · Rec yds | 15 | 15 | 10 |
| Dalton Kincaid | TE · Rec | 3.6 | 3.7 | 1 |
| Dalton Kincaid | TE · Rec yds | 55 | 50 | 5 |
| Dalton Kincaid | TE · Rec TD | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0 |
Rams at EaglesSun Oct 4, 2026
| Player | Proj | Projected | Prior-yr avg | Actual |
|---|
| Matthew Stafford | QB · Pass yds | 285 | 280 | 315 |
| Matthew Stafford | QB · Pass TD | 2 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | QB · INT | 0.9 | 0.5 | 2 |
| Kyren Williams | RB · Rush yds | 65 | 70 | 80 |
| Kyren Williams | RB · Rush TD | 0.4 | 0.6 | 2 |
| Kyren Williams | RB · Rec yds | 20 | 20 | 65 |
| Xavier Smith | WR · Rec | 2.2 | 1.3 | replaced pre-game |
| Xavier Smith | WR · Rec yds | 35 | 20 | replaced pre-game |
| Xavier Smith | WR · Rec TD | 0 | 0 | replaced pre-game |
| Jalen Hurts | QB · Pass yds | 195 | 200 | 95 |
| Jalen Hurts | QB · Pass TD | 1.4 | 1.5 | 2 |
| Jalen Hurts | QB · INT | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0 |
| Saquon Barkley | RB · Rush yds | 75 | 75 | 10 |
| Saquon Barkley | RB · Rush TD | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0 |
| Saquon Barkley | RB · Rec yds | 15 | 20 | 0 |
| DeVonta Smith | WR · Rec | 4.5 | 4.7 | adjusted pre-game |
| DeVonta Smith | WR · Rec yds | 55 | 60 | adjusted pre-game |
| DeVonta Smith | WR · Rec TD | 0.2 | 0.2 | adjusted pre-game |
| Puka Nacua | WR · Rec | 6.7 | 8.1 | 9 |
| Puka Nacua | WR · Rec yds | 95 | 110 | 125 |
| Puka Nacua | WR · Rec TD | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0 |
| Dallas Goedert | TE · Rec | 3.3 | 4 | replaced pre-game |
| Dallas Goedert | TE · Rec yds | 35 | 40 | replaced pre-game |
| Dallas Goedert | TE · Rec TD | 0.6 | 0.8 | replaced pre-game |
| Will Shipley | RB · Rush yds | 20 | 5 | 25 |
| Will Shipley | RB · Rush TD | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Will Shipley | RB · Rec yds | 5 | 5 | 0 |
Packers at BuccaneersSun Oct 4, 2026
| Player | Proj | Projected | Prior-yr avg | Actual |
|---|
| Jordan Love | QB · Pass yds | 240 | 230 | 195 |
| Jordan Love | QB · Pass TD | 1.7 | 1.7 | 2 |
| Jordan Love | QB · INT | 0.5 | 0.4 | 1 |
| Tucker Kraft | TE · Rec | 3.6 | 4 | 6 |
| Tucker Kraft | TE · Rec yds | 50 | 60 | 40 |
| Tucker Kraft | TE · Rec TD | 0.5 | 0.8 | 1 |
| Christian Watson | WR · Rec | 4.1 | 3.5 | 3 |
| Christian Watson | WR · Rec yds | 65 | 60 | 45 |
| Christian Watson | WR · Rec TD | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0 |
| Baker Mayfield | QB · Pass yds | 200 | 215 | adjusted pre-game |
| Baker Mayfield | QB · Pass TD | 1.1 | 1.5 | adjusted pre-game |
| Baker Mayfield | QB · INT | 0.9 | 0.6 | adjusted pre-game |
| Cade Otton | TE · Rec | 4 | 4.2 | 4 |
| Cade Otton | TE · Rec yds | 40 | 40 | 35 |
| Cade Otton | TE · Rec TD | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0 |
| Bucky Irving | RB · Rush yds | 60 | 60 | replaced pre-game |
| Bucky Irving | RB · Rush TD | 0.1 | 0.1 | replaced pre-game |
| Bucky Irving | RB · Rec yds | 25 | 30 | replaced pre-game |
| Jalon Daniels | QB · Pass yds | 165 | — | 150 |
| Jalon Daniels | QB · Pass TD | 0.8 | — | 1 |
| Jalon Daniels | QB · INT | 1 | — | 2 |
| Emeka Egbuka | WR · Rec | 3.5 | 3.7 | 2 |
| Emeka Egbuka | WR · Rec yds | 45 | 55 | 15 |
| Emeka Egbuka | WR · Rec TD | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0 |
Broncos at NinersSun Oct 4, 2026
| Player | Proj | Projected | Prior-yr avg | Actual |
|---|
| Bo Nix | QB · Pass yds | 225 | 235 | 215 |
| Bo Nix | QB · Pass TD | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1 |
| Bo Nix | QB · INT | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0 |
| Evan Engram | TE · Rec | 2.8 | 3.1 | 1 |
| Evan Engram | TE · Rec yds | 30 | 30 | 5 |
| Evan Engram | TE · Rec TD | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0 |
| J.K. Dobbins | RB · Rush yds | 65 | 75 | 40 |
| J.K. Dobbins | RB · Rush TD | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0 |
| J.K. Dobbins | RB · Rec yds | 5 | 5 | 10 |
| Brock Purdy | QB · Pass yds | 230 | 235 | 220 |
| Brock Purdy | QB · Pass TD | 1.9 | 2 | 2 |
| Brock Purdy | QB · INT | 1 | 1.2 | 0 |
| George Kittle | TE · Rec | 4.6 | 5.3 | 4 |
| George Kittle | TE · Rec yds | 55 | 60 | 70 |
| George Kittle | TE · Rec TD | 0.5 | 0.6 | 1 |
| Christian McCaffrey | RB · Rush yds | 65 | 70 | 50 |
| Christian McCaffrey | RB · Rush TD | 0.6 | 0.5 | 1 |
| Christian McCaffrey | RB · Rec yds | 35 | 55 | 20 |
Chargers at SeahawksSun Oct 4, 2026
| Player | Proj | Projected | Prior-yr avg | Actual |
|---|
| Justin Herbert | QB · Pass yds | 200 | 230 | 190 |
| Justin Herbert | QB · Pass TD | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1 |
| Justin Herbert | QB · Rush yds | 30 | 35 | 40 |
| Omarion Hampton | RB · Rush yds | 55 | 55 | 45 |
| Omarion Hampton | RB · Rush TD | 0.4 | 0.4 | 1 |
| Omarion Hampton | RB · Rec yds | 15 | 20 | 10 |
| Ladd McConkey | WR · Rec | 3.4 | 4.1 | DNP |
| Ladd McConkey | WR · Rec yds | 50 | 50 | DNP |
| Ladd McConkey | WR · Rec TD | 0.3 | 0.4 | DNP |
| Sam Darnold | QB · Pass yds | 220 | 235 | 170 |
| Sam Darnold | QB · Pass TD | 1.2 | 1.5 | 2 |
| Sam Darnold | QB · INT | 0.8 | 0.7 | 1 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR · Rec | 6.4 | 6.8 | 5 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR · Rec yds | 90 | 100 | 75 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR · Rec TD | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0 |
| AJ Barner | TE · Rec | 3.4 | 2.9 | 1 |
| AJ Barner | TE · Rec yds | 35 | 30 | 10 |
| AJ Barner | TE · Rec TD | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0 |
| Drew Lock | QB · Pass yds | 180 | 5 | replaced pre-game |
| Drew Lock | QB · Pass TD | 1.1 | 0 | replaced pre-game |
| Drew Lock | QB · INT | 0.5 | 0 | replaced pre-game |
Dolphins at VikingsSun Oct 4, 2026
| Player | Proj | Projected | Prior-yr avg | Actual |
|---|
| Malik Willis | QB · Pass yds | 170 | 105 | 85 |
| Malik Willis | QB · Pass TD | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0 |
| Malik Willis | QB · Rush yds | 25 | 30 | 10 |
| Greg Dulcich | TE · Rec | 2.9 | 2.9 | DNP |
| Greg Dulcich | TE · Rec yds | 35 | 35 | DNP |
| Greg Dulcich | TE · Rec TD | 0.1 | 0.1 | DNP |
| DJ Herman | RB · Rush yds | 55 | — | DNP |
| DJ Herman | RB · Rush TD | 0.1 | — | DNP |
| DJ Herman | RB · Rec yds | 10 | — | DNP |
| Kyler Murray | QB · Pass yds | 180 | 190 | 245 |
| Kyler Murray | QB · Pass TD | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0 |
| Kyler Murray | QB · INT | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0 |
| Aaron Jones Sr. | RB · Rush yds | 55 | 45 | 95 |
| Aaron Jones Sr. | RB · Rush TD | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0 |
| Aaron Jones Sr. | RB · Rec yds | 15 | 15 | 35 |
| T.J. Hockenson | TE · Rec | 3.2 | 3.4 | 13 |
| T.J. Hockenson | TE · Rec yds | 30 | 30 | 120 |
| T.J. Hockenson | TE · Rec TD | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0 |
| Carson Wentz | QB · Pass yds | 220 | 245 | replaced pre-game |
| Carson Wentz | QB · Pass TD | 1.3 | 1.2 | replaced pre-game |
| Carson Wentz | QB · INT | 0.7 | 1 | replaced pre-game |
Cowboys at TexansSun Oct 4, 2026
| Player | Proj | Projected | Prior-yr avg | Actual |
|---|
| Dak Prescott | QB · Pass yds | 250 | 270 | 335 |
| Dak Prescott | QB · Pass TD | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1 |
| Dak Prescott | QB · INT | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0 |
| Jake Ferguson | TE · Rec | 3.5 | 4.8 | 3 |
| Jake Ferguson | TE · Rec yds | 30 | 35 | 10 |
| Jake Ferguson | TE · Rec TD | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Javonte Williams | RB · Rush yds | 65 | 75 | 60 |
| Javonte Williams | RB · Rush TD | 0.5 | 0.7 | 3 |
| Javonte Williams | RB · Rec yds | 10 | 10 | 20 |
| C.J. Stroud | QB · Pass yds | 235 | 220 | 345 |
| C.J. Stroud | QB · Pass TD | 1.2 | 1.3 | 2 |
| C.J. Stroud | QB · INT | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0 |
| Dalton Schultz | TE · Rec | 4.5 | 4.6 | 2 |
| Dalton Schultz | TE · Rec yds | 45 | 45 | 10 |
| Dalton Schultz | TE · Rec TD | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0 |
| David Montgomery | RB · Rush yds | 40 | 40 | 25 |
| David Montgomery | RB · Rush TD | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0 |
| David Montgomery | RB · Rec yds | 10 | 10 | 20 |
Falcons at SaintsMon Oct 5, 2026
| Player | Proj | Projected | Prior-yr avg | Actual |
|---|
| Michael Penix Jr. | QB · Pass yds | 220 | 220 | 225 |
| Michael Penix Jr. | QB · Pass TD | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Michael Penix Jr. | QB · INT | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0 |
| Drake London | WR · Rec | 5.2 | 5.7 | 5 |
| Drake London | WR · Rec yds | 80 | 75 | 95 |
| Drake London | WR · Rec TD | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0 |
| Bijan Robinson | RB · Rush yds | 90 | 85 | 145 |
| Bijan Robinson | RB · Rush TD | 0.5 | 0.4 | 2 |
| Bijan Robinson | RB · Rec yds | 35 | 50 | 0 |
| Tyler Shough | QB · Pass yds | 250 | 215 | 285 |
| Tyler Shough | QB · Pass TD | 1.3 | 0.9 | 1 |
| Tyler Shough | QB · INT | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Chris Olave | WR · Rec | 6.3 | 6.2 | 8 |
| Chris Olave | WR · Rec yds | 85 | 75 | 115 |
| Chris Olave | WR · Rec TD | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0 |
| Juwan Johnson | TE · Rec | 4.4 | 4.5 | 6 |
| Juwan Johnson | TE · Rec yds | 55 | 50 | 60 |
| Juwan Johnson | TE · Rec TD | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | QB · Pass yds | 200 | 190 | replaced pre-game |
| Tua Tagovailoa | QB · Pass TD | 1.4 | 1.4 | replaced pre-game |
| Tua Tagovailoa | QB · INT | 1 | 1.1 | replaced pre-game |
Grades: green within 20% (counts:
within half a unit), amber to 50% (one unit),
red beyond or an inverted edge. ‘Prior-yr
avg’ is the naive baseline — the player’s prior-season per-game
average — shown so you can see the opponent adjustment earn its keep.
Projections joined to actuals by player id and kickoff-date window; a blank
actual means the game log has not landed yet (pending). Availability-adjusted
rows are voided, never re-graded.