2026 · Week 5 · October 12, 2026 · NFL
Week 5 scorecard
The preview exactly as we published it before kickoff —
the unit mismatches and player production projections — now with the
actual box score next to every number and a grade on each row. Nothing
here was edited after the games kicked off. See the full
season track record →
Week summary
144
Projections graded
9 voided · 0 pending
55%
Beat naive baseline
on 138 comparable rows
6–2
Components vs naive
MAE win/loss by stat
—
Unit-edge record
biggest-mismatch calls
| Component | n | Our MAE | Naive MAE | Verdict |
|---|
| Pass yds | 16 | 65.83 | 77.35 | beats naive |
| Pass TD | 16 | 0.56 | 0.67 | beats naive |
| INT | 12 | 0.68 | 0.57 | trails naive |
| Rush yds | 17 | 29.06 | 30.44 | beats naive |
| Rush TD | 13 | 0.71 | 0.71 | beats naive |
| Rec | 19 | 2.17 | 2.17 | trails naive |
| Rec yds | 32 | 21.03 | 22.72 | beats naive |
| Rec TD | 19 | 0.40 | 0.46 | beats naive |
9 row(s) voided (adjusted for availability or replaced by a starter change before kickoff) — shown struck-through, excluded from every number above.
MAE = mean absolute error vs the actual box score, in each stat’s own units. Naive = the player’s prior-season per-game average.
Niners at SeahawksSun Oct 11, 2026
| Player | Proj | Projected | Prior-yr avg | Actual |
|---|
| Brock Purdy | QB · Pass yds | 225 | 235 | 190 |
| Brock Purdy | QB · Pass TD | 1.9 | 2 | 2 |
| Brock Purdy | QB · INT | 0.9 | 1.2 | 1 |
| George Kittle | TE · Rec | 4.6 | 5.3 | 5 |
| George Kittle | TE · Rec yds | 55 | 60 | 25 |
| George Kittle | TE · Rec TD | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0 |
| Christian McCaffrey | RB · Rush yds | 65 | 70 | 70 |
| Christian McCaffrey | RB · Rush TD | 0.6 | 0.5 | 1 |
| Christian McCaffrey | RB · Rec yds | 30 | 55 | 15 |
| Sam Darnold | QB · Pass yds | 210 | 235 | 195 |
| Sam Darnold | QB · Pass TD | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1 |
| Sam Darnold | QB · INT | 0.7 | 0.7 | 2 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR · Rec | 6.2 | 6.8 | 5 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR · Rec yds | 80 | 100 | 100 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR · Rec TD | 0.7 | 0.6 | 1 |
| AJ Barner | TE · Rec | 2.7 | 2.9 | 3 |
| AJ Barner | TE · Rec yds | 30 | 30 | 20 |
| AJ Barner | TE · Rec TD | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0 |
Bills at RamsMon Oct 12, 2026
| Player | Proj | Projected | Prior-yr avg | Actual |
|---|
| Josh Allen | QB · Pass yds | 235 | 235 | 210 |
| Josh Allen | QB · Pass TD | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1 |
| Josh Allen | QB · Rush yds | 30 | 40 | 120 |
| James Cook | RB · Rush yds | 85 | 95 | 110 |
| James Cook | RB · Rush TD | 0.5 | 0.6 | 2 |
| James Cook | RB · Rec yds | 10 | 15 | 5 |
| Dalton Kincaid | TE · Rec | 3.6 | 3.7 | 1 |
| Dalton Kincaid | TE · Rec yds | 55 | 50 | 5 |
| Dalton Kincaid | TE · Rec TD | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | QB · Pass yds | 290 | 280 | 385 |
| Matthew Stafford | QB · Pass TD | 1.9 | 2.6 | 3 |
| Matthew Stafford | QB · INT | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Kyren Williams | RB · Rush yds | 70 | 70 | 50 |
| Kyren Williams | RB · Rush TD | 0.6 | 0.6 | 1 |
| Kyren Williams | RB · Rec yds | 25 | 20 | 25 |
| Puka Nacua | WR · Rec | 7 | 8.1 | 17 |
| Puka Nacua | WR · Rec yds | 100 | 110 | 140 |
| Puka Nacua | WR · Rec TD | 0.5 | 0.6 | 1 |
Ravens at FalconsSun Oct 11, 2026
| Player | Proj | Projected | Prior-yr avg | Actual |
|---|
| Lamar Jackson | QB · Pass yds | 205 | 195 | adjusted pre-game |
| Lamar Jackson | QB · Pass TD | 1.2 | 1.6 | adjusted pre-game |
| Lamar Jackson | QB · INT | 0.7 | 0.5 | adjusted pre-game |
| Derrick Henry | RB · Rush yds | 95 | 95 | 100 |
| Derrick Henry | RB · Rush TD | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0 |
| Derrick Henry | RB · Rec yds | 10 | 10 | 20 |
| Mark Andrews | TE · Rec | 3 | 2.8 | 4 |
| Mark Andrews | TE · Rec yds | 25 | 25 | 30 |
| Mark Andrews | TE · Rec TD | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0 |
| Michael Penix Jr. | QB · Pass yds | 225 | 220 | 240 |
| Michael Penix Jr. | QB · Pass TD | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Michael Penix Jr. | QB · INT | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0 |
| Bijan Robinson | RB · Rush yds | 95 | 85 | 85 |
| Bijan Robinson | RB · Rush TD | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0 |
| Bijan Robinson | RB · Rec yds | 30 | 50 | 30 |
| Drake London | WR · Rec | 5.3 | 5.7 | 7 |
| Drake London | WR · Rec yds | 80 | 75 | 120 |
| Drake London | WR · Rec TD | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0 |
| Tyler Huntley | QB · Pass yds | 145 | 85 | 200 |
| Tyler Huntley | QB · Pass TD | 0.6 | 0.4 | 2 |
| Tyler Huntley | QB · Rush yds | 25 | 30 | 20 |
Eagles at JaguarsSun Oct 11, 2026
| Player | Proj | Projected | Prior-yr avg | Actual |
|---|
| Jalen Hurts | QB · Pass yds | 195 | 200 | 220 |
| Jalen Hurts | QB · Pass TD | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1 |
| Jalen Hurts | QB · INT | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0 |
| Saquon Barkley | RB · Rush yds | 65 | 75 | adjusted pre-game |
| Saquon Barkley | RB · Rush TD | 0.2 | 0.4 | adjusted pre-game |
| Saquon Barkley | RB · Rec yds | 10 | 20 | adjusted pre-game |
| Will Shipley | RB · Rush yds | 20 | 5 | 5 |
| Will Shipley | RB · Rush TD | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Will Shipley | RB · Rec yds | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Trevor Lawrence | QB · Pass yds | 230 | 235 | 330 |
| Trevor Lawrence | QB · Pass TD | 2 | 1.8 | 2 |
| Trevor Lawrence | QB · INT | 0.8 | 0.8 | 1 |
| Brenton Strange | TE · Rec | 3.2 | 3.7 | 7 |
| Brenton Strange | TE · Rec yds | 40 | 40 | 70 |
| Brenton Strange | TE · Rec TD | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0 |
| Bhayshul Tuten | RB · Rush yds | 40 | 20 | 70 |
| Bhayshul Tuten | RB · Rush TD | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0 |
| Bhayshul Tuten | RB · Rec yds | 5 | 5 | 25 |
| Dallas Goedert | TE · Rec | 3.4 | 4 | 6 |
| Dallas Goedert | TE · Rec yds | 35 | 40 | 40 |
| Dallas Goedert | TE · Rec TD | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0 |
Buccaneers at CowboysThu Oct 8, 2026
| Player | Proj | Projected | Prior-yr avg | Actual |
|---|
| Jalon Daniels | QB · Pass yds | 165 | — | 190 |
| Jalon Daniels | QB · Pass TD | 0.9 | — | 1 |
| Jalon Daniels | QB · Rush yds | 20 | — | 25 |
| Cade Otton | TE · Rec | 4 | 4.2 | 3 |
| Cade Otton | TE · Rec yds | 40 | 40 | 25 |
| Cade Otton | TE · Rec TD | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0 |
| Bucky Irving | RB · Rush yds | 60 | 60 | 165 |
| Bucky Irving | RB · Rush TD | 0.1 | 0.1 | 1 |
| Bucky Irving | RB · Rec yds | 25 | 30 | 10 |
| Dak Prescott | QB · Pass yds | 270 | 270 | 315 |
| Dak Prescott | QB · Pass TD | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1 |
| Dak Prescott | QB · INT | 0.5 | 0.6 | 2 |
| Jake Ferguson | TE · Rec | 3.3 | 4.8 | 3 |
| Jake Ferguson | TE · Rec yds | 30 | 35 | 20 |
| Jake Ferguson | TE · Rec TD | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0 |
| CeeDee Lamb | WR · Rec | 6.1 | 5.8 | 2 |
| CeeDee Lamb | WR · Rec yds | 85 | 85 | 10 |
| CeeDee Lamb | WR · Rec TD | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0 |
Bears at PackersSun Oct 11, 2026
| Player | Proj | Projected | Prior-yr avg | Actual |
|---|
| Tyson Bagent | QB · Pass yds | 140 | 25 | replaced pre-game |
| Tyson Bagent | QB · Pass TD | 0.4 | 0 | replaced pre-game |
| Tyson Bagent | QB · INT | 0.6 | 0 | replaced pre-game |
| Colston Loveland | TE · Rec | 4.3 | 4.1 | 2 |
| Colston Loveland | TE · Rec yds | 50 | 55 | 20 |
| Colston Loveland | TE · Rec TD | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0 |
| D'Andre Swift | RB · Rush yds | 65 | 70 | 45 |
| D'Andre Swift | RB · Rush TD | 0.6 | 0.6 | 1 |
| D'Andre Swift | RB · Rec yds | 15 | 20 | 30 |
| Jordan Love | QB · Pass yds | 225 | 230 | 365 |
| Jordan Love | QB · Pass TD | 1.6 | 1.7 | 2 |
| Jordan Love | QB · INT | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0 |
| Tucker Kraft | TE · Rec | 3.7 | 4 | 5 |
| Tucker Kraft | TE · Rec yds | 50 | 60 | 65 |
| Tucker Kraft | TE · Rec TD | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0 |
| Christian Watson | WR · Rec | 4 | 3.5 | 6 |
| Christian Watson | WR · Rec yds | 65 | 60 | 145 |
| Christian Watson | WR · Rec TD | 0.7 | 0.6 | 2 |
| Caleb Williams | QB · Pass yds | 230 | 240 | DNP |
| Caleb Williams | QB · Pass TD | 1.5 | 1.6 | DNP |
| Caleb Williams | QB · INT | 0.7 | 0.6 | DNP |
Lions at CardinalsSun Oct 11, 2026
| Player | Proj | Projected | Prior-yr avg | Actual |
|---|
| Jared Goff | QB · Pass yds | 285 | 270 | 270 |
| Jared Goff | QB · Pass TD | 1.9 | 2 | 3 |
| Jared Goff | QB · INT | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Sam LaPorta | TE · Rec | 4.5 | 4.4 | 5 |
| Sam LaPorta | TE · Rec yds | 50 | 55 | 90 |
| Sam LaPorta | TE · Rec TD | 0.3 | 0.3 | 1 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | RB · Rush yds | 75 | 70 | 150 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | RB · Rush TD | 0.8 | 0.8 | 2 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | RB · Rec yds | 40 | 35 | 55 |
| Jacoby Brissett | QB · Pass yds | 255 | 240 | 290 |
| Jacoby Brissett | QB · Pass TD | 1.7 | 1.6 | 3 |
| Jacoby Brissett | QB · INT | 0.7 | 0.6 | 1 |
| Trey McBride | TE · Rec | 7.6 | 7.4 | 9 |
| Trey McBride | TE · Rec yds | 75 | 75 | 65 |
| Trey McBride | TE · Rec TD | 0.5 | 0.6 | 1 |
| Jeremiyah Love | RB · Rush yds | 55 | — | 20 |
| Jeremiyah Love | RB · Rush TD | 0.2 | — | 0 |
| Jeremiyah Love | RB · Rec yds | 10 | — | 0 |
Broncos at ChargersSun Oct 11, 2026
| Player | Proj | Projected | Prior-yr avg | Actual |
|---|
| Bo Nix | QB · Pass yds | 230 | 235 | 125 |
| Bo Nix | QB · Pass TD | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1 |
| Bo Nix | QB · INT | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0 |
| Evan Engram | TE · Rec | 2.6 | 3.1 | 4 |
| Evan Engram | TE · Rec yds | 25 | 30 | 55 |
| Evan Engram | TE · Rec TD | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0 |
| J.K. Dobbins | RB · Rush yds | 65 | 75 | 70 |
| J.K. Dobbins | RB · Rush TD | 0.2 | 0.4 | 1 |
| J.K. Dobbins | RB · Rec yds | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Justin Herbert | QB · Pass yds | 200 | 230 | 120 |
| Justin Herbert | QB · Pass TD | 1 | 1.5 | 1 |
| Justin Herbert | QB · Rush yds | 25 | 35 | 55 |
| Omarion Hampton | RB · Rush yds | 55 | 55 | 35 |
| Omarion Hampton | RB · Rush TD | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0 |
| Omarion Hampton | RB · Rec yds | 15 | 20 | 5 |
| Ladd McConkey | WR · Rec | 3.4 | 4.1 | DNP |
| Ladd McConkey | WR · Rec yds | 50 | 50 | DNP |
| Ladd McConkey | WR · Rec TD | 0.3 | 0.4 | DNP |
Grades: green within 20% (counts:
within half a unit), amber to 50% (one unit),
red beyond or an inverted edge. ‘Prior-yr
avg’ is the naive baseline — the player’s prior-season per-game
average — shown so you can see the opponent adjustment earn its keep.
Projections joined to actuals by player id and kickoff-date window; a blank
actual means the game log has not landed yet (pending). Availability-adjusted
rows are voided, never re-graded.