2026 · Week 9 · November 9, 2026 · NFL
Week 9 scorecard
The preview exactly as we published it before kickoff —
the unit mismatches and player production projections — now with the
actual box score next to every number and a grade on each row. Nothing
here was edited after the games kicked off. See the full
season track record →
Week summary
144
Projections graded
15 voided · 0 pending
62%
Beat naive baseline
on 141 comparable rows
7–1
Components vs naive
MAE win/loss by stat
—
Unit-edge record
biggest-mismatch calls
| Component | n | Our MAE | Naive MAE | Verdict |
|---|
| Pass yds | 16 | 65.41 | 81.44 | beats naive |
| Pass TD | 16 | 1.04 | 1.12 | beats naive |
| INT | 11 | 0.96 | 0.84 | trails naive |
| Rush yds | 16 | 19.33 | 21.93 | beats naive |
| Rush TD | 11 | 0.56 | 0.59 | beats naive |
| Rec | 21 | 1.42 | 1.58 | beats naive |
| Rec yds | 32 | 20.40 | 21.36 | beats naive |
| Rec TD | 21 | 0.33 | 0.37 | beats naive |
15 row(s) voided (adjusted for availability or replaced by a starter change before kickoff) — shown struck-through, excluded from every number above.
MAE = mean absolute error vs the actual box score, in each stat’s own units. Naive = the player’s prior-season per-game average.
Packers at PatriotsSun Nov 8, 2026
| Player | Proj | Projected | Prior-yr avg | Actual |
|---|
| Jordan Love | QB · Pass yds | 250 | 230 | 370 |
| Jordan Love | QB · Pass TD | 1.9 | 1.7 | 3 |
| Jordan Love | QB · INT | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0 |
| Tucker Kraft | TE · Rec | 4 | 4 | 1 |
| Tucker Kraft | TE · Rec yds | 45 | 60 | 0 |
| Tucker Kraft | TE · Rec TD | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0 |
| Josh Jacobs | RB · Rush yds | 55 | 60 | replaced pre-game |
| Josh Jacobs | RB · Rush TD | 0.5 | 0.8 | replaced pre-game |
| Josh Jacobs | RB · Rec yds | 15 | 20 | replaced pre-game |
| Drake Maye | QB · Pass yds | 225 | 250 | 300 |
| Drake Maye | QB · Pass TD | 1.5 | 1.8 | 3 |
| Drake Maye | QB · Rush yds | 30 | 30 | 5 |
| Hunter Henry | TE · Rec | 3.2 | 3.3 | 3 |
| Hunter Henry | TE · Rec yds | 35 | 40 | 35 |
| Hunter Henry | TE · Rec TD | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | RB · Rush yds | 55 | 45 | 30 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | RB · Rush TD | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | RB · Rec yds | 25 | 25 | 45 |
| Christian Watson | WR · Rec | 4.4 | 3.5 | 7 |
| Christian Watson | WR · Rec yds | 70 | 60 | 170 |
| Christian Watson | WR · Rec TD | 0.6 | 0.6 | 1 |
Bills at VikingsMon Nov 9, 2026
| Player | Proj | Projected | Prior-yr avg | Actual |
|---|
| Josh Allen | QB · Pass yds | 240 | 235 | 235 |
| Josh Allen | QB · Pass TD | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1 |
| Josh Allen | QB · Rush yds | 35 | 40 | 15 |
| James Cook | RB · Rush yds | 85 | 95 | 105 |
| James Cook | RB · Rush TD | 0.7 | 0.6 | 1 |
| James Cook | RB · Rec yds | 10 | 15 | 0 |
| Dalton Kincaid | TE · Rec | 3.5 | 3.7 | 3 |
| Dalton Kincaid | TE · Rec yds | 45 | 50 | 30 |
| Dalton Kincaid | TE · Rec TD | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Kyler Murray | QB · Pass yds | 185 | 190 | adjusted pre-game |
| Kyler Murray | QB · Pass TD | 0.9 | 1.2 | adjusted pre-game |
| Kyler Murray | QB · Rush yds | 30 | 35 | adjusted pre-game |
| T.J. Hockenson | TE · Rec | 3.6 | 3.4 | 4 |
| T.J. Hockenson | TE · Rec yds | 35 | 30 | 35 |
| T.J. Hockenson | TE · Rec TD | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0 |
| Justin Jefferson | WR · Rec | 4.2 | 4.9 | 3 |
| Justin Jefferson | WR · Rec yds | 50 | 60 | 60 |
| Justin Jefferson | WR · Rec TD | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0 |
| Carson Wentz | QB · Pass yds | 210 | 245 | 80 |
| Carson Wentz | QB · Pass TD | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0 |
| Carson Wentz | QB · INT | 0.8 | 1 | 2 |
Jaguars at RavensThu Nov 5, 2026
| Player | Proj | Projected | Prior-yr avg | Actual |
|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | QB · Pass yds | 250 | 235 | 240 |
| Trevor Lawrence | QB · Pass TD | 2.3 | 1.8 | 1 |
| Trevor Lawrence | QB · INT | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0 |
| Brenton Strange | TE · Rec | 3.6 | 3.7 | 2 |
| Brenton Strange | TE · Rec yds | 40 | 40 | 20 |
| Brenton Strange | TE · Rec TD | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0 |
| Bhayshul Tuten | RB · Rush yds | 45 | 20 | 30 |
| Bhayshul Tuten | RB · Rush TD | 0.3 | 0.3 | 1 |
| Bhayshul Tuten | RB · Rec yds | 15 | 5 | 0 |
| Tyler Huntley | QB · Pass yds | 155 | 85 | adjusted pre-game |
| Tyler Huntley | QB · Pass TD | 0.8 | 0.4 | adjusted pre-game |
| Tyler Huntley | QB · INT | 0.3 | 0 | adjusted pre-game |
| Derrick Henry | RB · Rush yds | 90 | 95 | 55 |
| Derrick Henry | RB · Rush TD | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0 |
| Derrick Henry | RB · Rec yds | 10 | 10 | 0 |
| Mark Andrews | TE · Rec | 3.1 | 2.8 | 2 |
| Mark Andrews | TE · Rec yds | 25 | 25 | 20 |
| Mark Andrews | TE · Rec TD | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0 |
| Joe Fagnano | QB · Pass yds | 190 | — | 60 |
| Joe Fagnano | QB · Pass TD | 0.8 | — | 0 |
| Joe Fagnano | QB · INT | 0.9 | — | 2 |
Cardinals at SeahawksSun Nov 8, 2026
| Player | Proj | Projected | Prior-yr avg | Actual |
|---|
| Gardner Minshew | QB · Pass yds | 135 | 10 | 165 |
| Gardner Minshew | QB · Pass TD | 0.9 | 0 | 0 |
| Gardner Minshew | QB · INT | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0 |
| Trey McBride | TE · Rec | 6.9 | 7.4 | 7 |
| Trey McBride | TE · Rec yds | 60 | 75 | 55 |
| Trey McBride | TE · Rec TD | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0 |
| Michael Wilson | WR · Rec | 5.2 | 4.6 | 6 |
| Michael Wilson | WR · Rec yds | 65 | 60 | 60 |
| Michael Wilson | WR · Rec TD | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0 |
| Sam Darnold | QB · Pass yds | 215 | 235 | adjusted pre-game |
| Sam Darnold | QB · Pass TD | 1.4 | 1.5 | adjusted pre-game |
| Sam Darnold | QB · INT | 0.9 | 0.7 | adjusted pre-game |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR · Rec | 6.9 | 6.8 | 7 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR · Rec yds | 95 | 100 | 50 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR · Rec TD | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0 |
| AJ Barner | TE · Rec | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2 |
| AJ Barner | TE · Rec yds | 30 | 30 | 5 |
| AJ Barner | TE · Rec TD | 0.2 | 0.3 | 1 |
| Drew Lock | QB · Pass yds | 185 | 5 | 175 |
| Drew Lock | QB · Pass TD | 1.2 | 0 | 1 |
| Drew Lock | QB · INT | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
Lions at DolphinsSun Nov 8, 2026
| Player | Proj | Projected | Prior-yr avg | Actual |
|---|
| Jared Goff | QB · Pass yds | 285 | 270 | 170 |
| Jared Goff | QB · Pass TD | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Jared Goff | QB · INT | 0.3 | 0.5 | 1 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | RB · Rush yds | 75 | 70 | 75 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | RB · Rush TD | 0.7 | 0.8 | 1 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | RB · Rec yds | 35 | 35 | 0 |
| Sam LaPorta | TE · Rec | 4.3 | 4.4 | 4 |
| Sam LaPorta | TE · Rec yds | 55 | 55 | 30 |
| Sam LaPorta | TE · Rec TD | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0 |
| Malik Willis | QB · Pass yds | 175 | 105 | 130 |
| Malik Willis | QB · Pass TD | 1 | 0.8 | 0 |
| Malik Willis | QB · Rush yds | 25 | 30 | 5 |
| Greg Dulcich | TE · Rec | 3.3 | 2.9 | 2 |
| Greg Dulcich | TE · Rec yds | 40 | 35 | 15 |
| Greg Dulcich | TE · Rec TD | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0 |
| Ollie Gordon II | RB · Rush yds | 40 | 10 | 55 |
| Ollie Gordon II | RB · Rush TD | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0 |
| Ollie Gordon II | RB · Rec yds | 5 | 0 | 10 |
Buccaneers at BearsSun Nov 8, 2026
| Player | Proj | Projected | Prior-yr avg | Actual |
|---|
| Baker Mayfield | QB · Pass yds | 180 | 215 | 245 |
| Baker Mayfield | QB · Pass TD | 1.1 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Baker Mayfield | QB · INT | 0.8 | 0.6 | 2 |
| Cade Otton | TE · Rec | 3.3 | 4.2 | 4 |
| Cade Otton | TE · Rec yds | 30 | 40 | 25 |
| Cade Otton | TE · Rec TD | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0 |
| Bucky Irving | RB · Rush yds | 75 | 60 | 95 |
| Bucky Irving | RB · Rush TD | 0.3 | 0.1 | 2 |
| Bucky Irving | RB · Rec yds | 10 | 30 | 30 |
| Caleb Williams | QB · Pass yds | 250 | 240 | 280 |
| Caleb Williams | QB · Pass TD | 1.6 | 1.6 | 2 |
| Caleb Williams | QB · INT | 0.6 | 0.6 | 4 |
| Colston Loveland | TE · Rec | 4.9 | 4.1 | 4 |
| Colston Loveland | TE · Rec yds | 55 | 55 | 55 |
| Colston Loveland | TE · Rec TD | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0 |
| D'Andre Swift | RB · Rush yds | 60 | 70 | 30 |
| D'Andre Swift | RB · Rush TD | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0 |
| D'Andre Swift | RB · Rec yds | 20 | 20 | 0 |
Rams at CommandersSun Nov 8, 2026
| Player | Proj | Projected | Prior-yr avg | Actual |
|---|
| Matthew Stafford | QB · Pass yds | 275 | 280 | 230 |
| Matthew Stafford | QB · Pass TD | 2 | 2.6 | 1 |
| Matthew Stafford | QB · INT | 0.8 | 0.5 | 1 |
| Puka Nacua | WR · Rec | 8.2 | 8.1 | 14 |
| Puka Nacua | WR · Rec yds | 100 | 110 | 150 |
| Puka Nacua | WR · Rec TD | 0.6 | 0.6 | 1 |
| Kyren Williams | RB · Rush yds | 65 | 70 | 45 |
| Kyren Williams | RB · Rush TD | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0 |
| Kyren Williams | RB · Rec yds | 25 | 20 | 15 |
| Jayden Daniels | QB · Pass yds | 195 | 180 | 275 |
| Jayden Daniels | QB · Pass TD | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1 |
| Jayden Daniels | QB · Rush yds | 35 | 40 | 15 |
| Chigoziem Okonkwo | TE · Rec | 3.3 | 3.3 | 6 |
| Chigoziem Okonkwo | TE · Rec yds | 35 | 35 | 55 |
| Chigoziem Okonkwo | TE · Rec TD | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0 |
| Rachaad White | RB · Rush yds | 35 | 35 | 30 |
| Rachaad White | RB · Rush TD | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0 |
| Rachaad White | RB · Rec yds | 15 | 15 | 40 |
Texans at ChargersSun Nov 8, 2026
| Player | Proj | Projected | Prior-yr avg | Actual |
|---|
| C.J. Stroud | QB · Pass yds | 235 | 220 | 385 |
| C.J. Stroud | QB · Pass TD | 1.4 | 1.3 | 5 |
| C.J. Stroud | QB · INT | 0.8 | 0.8 | 1 |
| Dalton Schultz | TE · Rec | 4.1 | 4.6 | 2 |
| Dalton Schultz | TE · Rec yds | 40 | 45 | 40 |
| Dalton Schultz | TE · Rec TD | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0 |
| Woody Marks | RB · Rush yds | 50 | 45 | replaced pre-game |
| Woody Marks | RB · Rush TD | 0.2 | 0.2 | replaced pre-game |
| Woody Marks | RB · Rec yds | 10 | 15 | replaced pre-game |
| Justin Herbert | QB · Pass yds | 205 | 230 | 195 |
| Justin Herbert | QB · Pass TD | 1 | 1.5 | 1 |
| Justin Herbert | QB · Rush yds | 25 | 35 | 5 |
| Omarion Hampton | RB · Rush yds | 45 | 55 | 60 |
| Omarion Hampton | RB · Rush TD | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0 |
| Omarion Hampton | RB · Rec yds | 10 | 20 | 0 |
| Ladd McConkey | WR · Rec | 3.2 | 4.1 | DNP |
| Ladd McConkey | WR · Rec yds | 45 | 50 | DNP |
| Ladd McConkey | WR · Rec TD | 0.2 | 0.4 | DNP |
| Nico Collins | WR · Rec | 4.3 | 4.6 | 4 |
| Nico Collins | WR · Rec yds | 65 | 70 | 55 |
| Nico Collins | WR · Rec TD | 0.4 | 0.4 | 1 |
Grades: green within 20% (counts:
within half a unit), amber to 50% (one unit),
red beyond or an inverted edge. ‘Prior-yr
avg’ is the naive baseline — the player’s prior-season per-game
average — shown so you can see the opponent adjustment earn its keep.
Projections joined to actuals by player id and kickoff-date window; a blank
actual means the game log has not landed yet (pending). Availability-adjusted
rows are voided, never re-graded.