2026 · Week 1 · September 7, 2026 · College Football

Week 1 scorecard

The preview exactly as we published it before kickoff — the unit mismatches and player production projections — now with the actual box score next to every number and a grade on each row. Nothing here was edited after the games kicked off. See the full season track record →

Week summary

139

Projections graded

3 voided · 0 pending

57%

Beat naive baseline

on 139 comparable rows

4–4

Components vs naive

MAE win/loss by stat

4–3

Unit-edge record

biggest-mismatch calls

Component	n	Our MAE	Naive MAE	Verdict
Pass yds	10	64.85	65.75	beats naive
Pass TD	10	0.83	0.81	trails naive
INT	7	0.69	0.64	trails naive
Rush yds	22	29.20	29.43	beats naive
Rush TD	19	0.24	0.35	beats naive
Rec	18	1.11	1.20	beats naive
Rec yds	35	13.62	13.35	trails naive
Rec TD	18	0.35	0.35	trails naive

3 row(s) voided (adjusted for availability or replaced by a starter change before kickoff) — shown struck-through, excluded from every number above.

Unit edges on this page are the ones published before kickoff, restored from the preview builder’s own publish-time output (the flagged matchup and its edge) — never recomputed from later ratings. Where a game’s final pre-kickoff edition left no record of its own, the edge comes from an earlier edition whose recorded opponent-unit ratings were identical (the ratings had not moved). 1 game(s): the published unit grid was not archived and is marked ‘not recoverable’ — not recomputed, not graded, excluded from the unit-edge record.

MAE = mean absolute error vs the actual box score, in each stat’s own units. Naive = the player’s prior-season per-game average.

Louisville at MississippiSun Sep 6, 2026

Biggest pre-game edge: Mississippi pass offense vs Louisville pass defense — edge +240 offense edge hit

Player	Proj	Projected	Prior-yr avg	Actual
Isaac Brown	RB · Rush yds	95	100	35
Isaac Brown	RB · Rush TD	0.7	0.8	0
Isaac Brown	RB · Rec yds	5	5	30
Keyjuan Brown	RB · Rush yds	70	70	55
Keyjuan Brown	RB · Rush TD	0.6	0.6	0
Keyjuan Brown	RB · Rec yds	10	10	5
Jaleel Skinner	TE · Rec	2	1.6	3
Jaleel Skinner	TE · Rec yds	20	15	55
Jaleel Skinner	TE · Rec TD	0.2	0.2	0
Trinidad Chambliss	QB · Pass yds	280	260	335
Trinidad Chambliss	QB · Pass TD	1.6	1.5	3
Trinidad Chambliss	QB · Rush yds	35	35	60
Kewan Lacy	RB · Rush yds	105	105	60
Kewan Lacy	RB · Rush TD	1.6	1.6	1
Kewan Lacy	RB · Rec yds	10	10	20
Caleb Odom	TE · Rec	2.4	1.3	3
Caleb Odom	TE · Rec yds	25	15	65
Caleb Odom	TE · Rec TD	0.2	0.1	1

Clemson at LSUSat Sep 5, 2026

Biggest pre-game edge: LSU pass offense vs Clemson pass defense — edge +126 offense edge hit

Player	Proj	Projected	Prior-yr avg	Actual
Christopher Vizzina	QB · Pass yds	95	80	85
Christopher Vizzina	QB · Pass TD	0.9	0.8	0
Christopher Vizzina	QB · INT	0.3	0.2	1
Christian Bentancur	TE · Rec	2.1	1.5	1
Christian Bentancur	TE · Rec yds	20	15	-5
Christian Bentancur	TE · Rec TD	0.3	0.2	0
T.J. Moore	WR · Rec	3.9	4	4
T.J. Moore	WR · Rec yds	65	65	30
T.J. Moore	WR · Rec TD	0.3	0.3	0
Trey'Dez Green	TE · Rec	4.1	4.1	4
Trey'Dez Green	TE · Rec yds	55	55	60
Trey'Dez Green	TE · Rec TD	0.9	0.9	0
Caden Durham	RB · Rush yds	40	40	5
Caden Durham	RB · Rush TD	0.2	0.2	0
Caden Durham	RB · Rec yds	5	10	0
Harlem Berry	RB · Rush yds	35	40	10
Harlem Berry	RB · Rush TD	0.1	0.2	0
Harlem Berry	RB · Rec yds	0	5	0

Wisconsin at Notre DameSun Sep 6, 2026

Biggest pre-game edge: Wisconsin pass offense vs Notre Dame pass defense — edge -276 defense edge miss

Player	Proj	Projected	Prior-yr avg	Actual
Danny O'Neil	QB · Pass yds	95	90	DNP
Danny O'Neil	QB · Pass TD	0.7	0.7	DNP
Danny O'Neil	QB · INT	0.9	0.7	DNP
Darrion Dupree	RB · Rush yds	35	35	15
Darrion Dupree	RB · Rush TD	0.1	0.2	0
Darrion Dupree	RB · Rec yds	0	5	5
Grant Stec	TE · Rec	1.1	0.4	replaced pre-game
Grant Stec	TE · Rec yds	10	5	replaced pre-game
Grant Stec	TE · Rec TD	0	0	replaced pre-game
CJ Carr	QB · Pass yds	225	230	240
CJ Carr	QB · Pass TD	1.9	2	2
CJ Carr	QB · INT	0.6	0.5	0
Jordan Faison	WR · Rec	4	4.1	4
Jordan Faison	WR · Rec yds	50	55	80
Jordan Faison	WR · Rec TD	0.3	0.3	0
Ty Washington	TE · Rec	1.5	1.7	1
Ty Washington	TE · Rec yds	10	10	5
Ty Washington	TE · Rec TD	0.3	0.3	0
Carter Smith	RB · Rush yds	20	20	DNP
Carter Smith	RB · Rush TD	0.2	0.2	DNP
Carter Smith	RB · Rec yds	0	0	DNP

Boise St. at OregonSat Sep 5, 2026

Biggest pre-game edge: Oregon pass offense vs Boise St. pass defense — edge +295 offense edge hit

Player	Proj	Projected	Prior-yr avg	Actual
Maddux Madsen	QB · Pass yds	200	210	180
Maddux Madsen	QB · Pass TD	1.4	1.6	3
Maddux Madsen	QB · INT	1	0.8	0
Dylan Riley	RB · Rush yds	75	80	50
Dylan Riley	RB · Rush TD	0.6	0.7	0
Dylan Riley	RB · Rec yds	10	10	5
Sire Gaines	RB · Rush yds	50	60	40
Sire Gaines	RB · Rush TD	0.5	0.6	0
Sire Gaines	RB · Rec yds	5	5	45
Dante Moore	QB · Pass yds	240	240	380
Dante Moore	QB · Pass TD	2	2	3
Dante Moore	QB · INT	0.6	0.7	0
Jamari Johnson	TE · Rec	2.3	2.1	4
Jamari Johnson	TE · Rec yds	35	35	55
Jamari Johnson	TE · Rec TD	0.2	0.2	1
Jordon Davison	RB · Rush yds	50	50	90
Jordon Davison	RB · Rush TD	1.1	1.1	1
Jordon Davison	RB · Rec yds	5	5	0

Baylor at AuburnSat Sep 5, 2026

Biggest pre-game edge: Auburn rush offense vs Baylor rush defense — edge +204 offense edge miss

Player	Proj	Projected	Prior-yr avg	Actual
Caden Knighten	RB · Rush yds	35	40	35
Caden Knighten	RB · Rush TD	0	0.1	0
Caden Knighten	RB · Rec yds	10	10	5
Michael Turner	RB · Rush yds	40	40	5
Michael Turner	RB · Rush TD	0.1	0.1	0
Michael Turner	RB · Rec yds	5	5	0
Matthew Klopfenstein	TE · Rec	1.9	0.7	1
Matthew Klopfenstein	TE · Rec yds	15	5	5
Matthew Klopfenstein	TE · Rec TD	0.2	0.1	0
Jeremiah Cobb	RB · Rush yds	80	80	55
Jeremiah Cobb	RB · Rush TD	0.4	0.4	1
Jeremiah Cobb	WR · Rec yds	15	5	10
Omar Mabson II	RB · Rush yds	10	10	20
Omar Mabson II	RB · Rush TD	0.2	0.2	0
Omar Mabson II	RB · Rec yds	5	5	15
Jeremiah Cobb	WR · Rec	1.8	0.9	2
Jeremiah Cobb	WR · Rec TD	0	0	0

SMU at Florida St.Mon Sep 7, 2026

Biggest pre-game edge: Florida St. pass offense vs SMU pass defense — edge +140 offense edge miss

Player	Proj	Projected	Prior-yr avg	Actual
Kevin Jennings	QB · Pass yds	275	280	430
Kevin Jennings	QB · Pass TD	1.9	2	3
Kevin Jennings	QB · INT	1	1	2
Yamir Knight	WR · Rec	4.4	4.2	6
Yamir Knight	WR · Rec yds	50	50	50
Yamir Knight	WR · Rec TD	0.4	0.4	0
Jalen Cooper	WR · Rec	2.6	2.7	4
Jalen Cooper	WR · Rec yds	45	45	70
Jalen Cooper	WR · Rec TD	0.3	0.3	1
Ashton Daniels	QB · Pass yds	195	200	125
Ashton Daniels	QB · Pass TD	0.9	0.8	1
Ashton Daniels	QB · Rush yds	20	70	70
Ousmane Kromah	RB · Rush yds	110	35	115
Ousmane Kromah	RB · Rush TD	0.9	0	1
Ousmane Kromah	RB · Rec yds	5	10	10
Quintrevion Wisner	RB · Rush yds	25	65	0
Quintrevion Wisner	RB · Rush TD	0	0.3	0
Quintrevion Wisner	RB · Rec yds	5	15	0

East Carolina at AlabamaSat Sep 5, 2026

Biggest pre-game edge: Alabama pass offense vs East Carolina pass defense — edge +388 offense edge hit

Player	Proj	Projected	Prior-yr avg	Actual
TJ Engleman Jr.	RB · Rush yds	25	30	0
TJ Engleman Jr.	RB · Rush TD	0	0.1	0
TJ Engleman Jr.	WR · Rec yds	5	5	0
Brock Spalding	WR · Rec	2.8	3.2	DNP
Brock Spalding	WR · Rec yds	35	45	DNP
Brock Spalding	WR · Rec TD	0.1	0.2	DNP
TJ Engleman Jr.	WR · Rec	2	0.6	0
TJ Engleman Jr.	WR · Rec TD	0	0	0
Austin Mack	QB · Pass yds	60	55	5
Austin Mack	QB · Pass TD	0.6	0.5	0
Austin Mack	QB · INT	0	0	0
Kaleb Edwards	TE · Rec	1.6	0.7	2
Kaleb Edwards	TE · Rec yds	20	10	20
Kaleb Edwards	TE · Rec TD	0.2	0.1	0
Lotzeir Brooks	WR · Rec	2.9	2.3	2
Lotzeir Brooks	WR · Rec yds	40	30	25
Lotzeir Brooks	WR · Rec TD	0.2	0.1	0

Washington St. at WashingtonSun Sep 6, 2026

Biggest pre-game edge: not recoverable — the unit grid published for this game was not archived, so it is shown neither recomputed nor graded (excluded from the unit-edge record)

Player	Proj	Projected	Prior-yr avg	Actual
Maxwell Woods	RB · Rush yds	110	30	10
Maxwell Woods	RB · Rush TD	0	0	0
Maxwell Woods	RB · Rec yds	35	20	0
Leo Pulalasi	RB · Rush yds	30	25	15
Leo Pulalasi	RB · Rush TD	0	0	0
Leo Pulalasi	RB · Rec yds	0	10	10
Demond Williams Jr.	QB · Pass yds	235	235	270
Demond Williams Jr.	QB · Pass TD	1.9	1.9	1
Demond Williams Jr.	QB · Rush yds	50	45	60
Decker DeGraaf	TE · Rec	2.9	2.5	4
Decker DeGraaf	TE · Rec yds	30	30	30
Decker DeGraaf	TE · Rec TD	0.2	0.2	0
Dezmen Roebuck	WR · Rec	3.5	3.2	7
Dezmen Roebuck	WR · Rec yds	45	45	40
Dezmen Roebuck	WR · Rec TD	0.6	0.5	0

Grades: green within 20% (counts: within half a unit), amber to 50% (one unit), red beyond or an inverted edge. ‘Prior-yr avg’ is the naive baseline — the player’s prior-season per-game average — shown so you can see the opponent adjustment earn its keep. Projections joined to actuals by player id and kickoff-date window; a blank actual means the game log has not landed yet (pending). Availability-adjusted rows are voided, never re-graded.