The preview exactly as we published it before kickoff — the unit mismatches and player production projections — now with the actual box score next to every number and a grade on each row. Nothing here was edited after the games kicked off. See the full season track record →
| Component | n | Our MAE | Naive MAE | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pass yds | 14 | 65.57 | 69.25 | beats naive |
| Pass TD | 14 | 1.12 | 1.06 | trails naive |
| INT | 12 | 0.66 | 0.70 | beats naive |
| Rush yds | 12 | 25.35 | 29.02 | beats naive |
| Rush TD | 10 | 0.64 | 0.79 | beats naive |
| Rec | 18 | 1.75 | 2.07 | beats naive |
| Rec yds | 28 | 21.59 | 22.74 | beats naive |
| Rec TD | 18 | 0.42 | 0.41 | trails naive |
Biggest pre-game edge: Ohio St. pass offense vs Oregon pass defense — edge +176 offense edge hit
| Player | Proj | Projected | Prior-yr avg | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Raiola | QB · Pass yds | 180 | 220 | 255 |
| Dylan Raiola | QB · Pass TD | 1.3 | 2 | 2 |
| Dylan Raiola | QB · INT | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0 |
| Jamari Johnson | TE · Rec | 3.4 | 2.1 | 3 |
| Jamari Johnson | TE · Rec yds | 45 | 35 | 40 |
| Jamari Johnson | TE · Rec TD | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0 |
| Jordon Davison | RB · Rush yds | 45 | 50 | DNP |
| Jordon Davison | RB · Rush TD | 0.7 | 1.1 | DNP |
| Jordon Davison | RB · Rec yds | 5 | 5 | DNP |
| Julian Sayin | QB · Pass yds | 245 | 260 | adjusted pre-game |
| Julian Sayin | QB · Pass TD | 1.8 | 2.3 | adjusted pre-game |
| Julian Sayin | QB · INT | 0.9 | 0.6 | adjusted pre-game |
| Jeremiah Smith | WR · Rec | 6.4 | 6.7 | 7 |
| Jeremiah Smith | WR · Rec yds | 105 | 95 | 135 |
| Jeremiah Smith | WR · Rec TD | 0.9 | 0.9 | 1 |
| Bo Jackson | RB · Rush yds | 80 | 85 | 50 |
| Bo Jackson | RB · Rush TD | 0.5 | 0.5 | 2 |
| Bo Jackson | RB · Rec yds | 10 | 15 | 40 |
| Luke Fahey | QB · Pass yds | 135 | — | 360 |
| Luke Fahey | QB · Pass TD | 0.7 | — | 2 |
| Luke Fahey | QB · INT | 0.9 | — | 1 |
Biggest pre-game edge: Georgia pass offense vs Mississippi pass defense — edge +204 offense edge miss
| Player | Proj | Projected | Prior-yr avg | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gunner Stockton | QB · Pass yds | 190 | 205 | 185 |
| Gunner Stockton | QB · Pass TD | 1.7 | 1.7 | 4 |
| Gunner Stockton | QB · INT | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0 |
| Lawson Luckie | TE · Rec | 2 | 1.1 | 1 |
| Lawson Luckie | TE · Rec yds | 25 | 10 | 10 |
| Lawson Luckie | TE · Rec TD | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0 |
| Nate Frazier | RB · Rush yds | 65 | 70 | 105 |
| Nate Frazier | RB · Rush TD | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0 |
| Nate Frazier | RB · Rec yds | 5 | 10 | 0 |
| Trinidad Chambliss | QB · Pass yds | 265 | 260 | 170 |
| Trinidad Chambliss | QB · Pass TD | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Trinidad Chambliss | QB · INT | 0.9 | 0.2 | 1 |
| Caleb Odom | TE · Rec | 2.9 | 1.3 | 3 |
| Caleb Odom | TE · Rec yds | 30 | 15 | 25 |
| Caleb Odom | TE · Rec TD | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0 |
| Kewan Lacy | RB · Rush yds | 85 | 105 | adjusted pre-game |
| Kewan Lacy | RB · Rush TD | 1 | 1.6 | adjusted pre-game |
| Kewan Lacy | RB · Rec yds | 5 | 10 | adjusted pre-game |
| Deuce Alexander | WR · Rec | 4.4 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Deuce Alexander | WR · Rec yds | 60 | 45 | 0 |
| Deuce Alexander | WR · Rec TD | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0 |
Biggest pre-game edge: Notre Dame pass offense vs Miami (Fla.) pass defense — edge +82 offense edge hit
| Player | Proj | Projected | Prior-yr avg | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darian Mensah | QB · Pass yds | 250 | 285 | 275 |
| Darian Mensah | QB · Pass TD | 2.2 | 2.4 | 3 |
| Darian Mensah | QB · INT | 0.5 | 0.4 | 1 |
| Malachi Toney | WR · Rec | 7.5 | 6.8 | adjusted pre-game |
| Malachi Toney | WR · Rec yds | 95 | 75 | adjusted pre-game |
| Malachi Toney | WR · Rec TD | 1 | 0.6 | adjusted pre-game |
| Mark Fletcher Jr. | RB · Rush yds | 70 | 85 | 55 |
| Mark Fletcher Jr. | RB · Rush TD | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0 |
| Mark Fletcher Jr. | RB · Rec yds | 10 | 10 | 5 |
| CJ Carr | QB · Pass yds | 205 | 230 | 320 |
| CJ Carr | QB · Pass TD | 1.8 | 2 | 3 |
| CJ Carr | QB · INT | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Nolan James Jr. | RB · Rush yds | 40 | 10 | 50 |
| Nolan James Jr. | RB · Rush TD | 0.4 | 0 | 1 |
| Nolan James Jr. | RB · Rec yds | 5 | 0 | 35 |
| Jonaz Walton | RB · Rush yds | 60 | — | 35 |
| Jonaz Walton | RB · Rush TD | 0.3 | — | 0 |
| Jonaz Walton | RB · Rec yds | 5 | — | 25 |
| Elija Lofton | TE · Rec | 1.9 | 1.8 | 7 |
| Elija Lofton | TE · Rec yds | 20 | 15 | 115 |
| Elija Lofton | TE · Rec TD | 0.2 | 0.2 | 1 |
Biggest pre-game edge: Alabama pass offense vs LSU pass defense — edge +152 offense edge hit
| Player | Proj | Projected | Prior-yr avg | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keelon Russell | QB · Pass yds | 210 | 70 | 205 |
| Keelon Russell | QB · Pass TD | 1.5 | 1 | 3 |
| Keelon Russell | QB · INT | 0.6 | 0 | 0 |
| Marshall Pritchett | TE · Rec | 2.6 | 0.5 | 2 |
| Marshall Pritchett | TE · Rec yds | 30 | 5 | 10 |
| Marshall Pritchett | TE · Rec TD | 0.2 | 0 | 0 |
| Kaleb Edwards | TE · Rec | 2 | 0.7 | 3 |
| Kaleb Edwards | TE · Rec yds | 25 | 10 | 50 |
| Kaleb Edwards | TE · Rec TD | 0.1 | 0.1 | 1 |
| Sam Leavitt | QB · Pass yds | 245 | 235 | 380 |
| Sam Leavitt | QB · Pass TD | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0 |
| Sam Leavitt | QB · Rush yds | 35 | 45 | 15 |
| Trey'Dez Green | TE · Rec | 4 | 4.1 | 10 |
| Trey'Dez Green | TE · Rec yds | 50 | 55 | 85 |
| Trey'Dez Green | TE · Rec TD | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0 |
| Dilin Jones | RB · Rush yds | 60 | 45 | 55 |
| Dilin Jones | RB · Rush TD | 0.4 | 0.3 | 1 |
| Dilin Jones | RB · Rec yds | 15 | 5 | 35 |
Biggest pre-game edge: Missouri pass offense vs Texas pass defense — edge -104 defense edge miss
| Player | Proj | Projected | Prior-yr avg | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arch Manning | QB · Pass yds | 225 | 245 | 295 |
| Arch Manning | QB · Pass TD | 1.8 | 2 | 3 |
| Arch Manning | QB · INT | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Raleek Brown | RB · Rush yds | 65 | 95 | 85 |
| Raleek Brown | RB · Rush TD | 0.3 | 0.3 | 1 |
| Raleek Brown | RB · Rec yds | 10 | 20 | 50 |
| Hollywood Smothers | RB · Rush yds | 55 | 85 | adjusted pre-game |
| Hollywood Smothers | RB · Rush TD | 0.2 | 0.5 | adjusted pre-game |
| Hollywood Smothers | RB · Rec yds | 15 | 15 | adjusted pre-game |
| Austin Simmons | QB · Pass yds | 170 | 95 | 250 |
| Austin Simmons | QB · Pass TD | 1.1 | 0.5 | 2 |
| Austin Simmons | QB · INT | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0 |
| Jamal Roberts | RB · Rush yds | 90 | 60 | 65 |
| Jamal Roberts | RB · Rush TD | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Jamal Roberts | RB · Rec yds | 10 | 10 | 0 |
| Cayden Lee | WR · Rec | 5.3 | 2.9 | 9 |
| Cayden Lee | WR · Rec yds | 70 | 40 | 80 |
| Cayden Lee | WR · Rec TD | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0 |
| Ryan Wingo | WR · Rec | 4.5 | 4.2 | 6 |
| Ryan Wingo | WR · Rec yds | 60 | 65 | 55 |
| Ryan Wingo | WR · Rec TD | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0 |
Biggest pre-game edge: Washington rush offense vs Penn State rush defense — edge -150 defense edge hit
| Player | Proj | Projected | Prior-yr avg | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rocco Becht | QB · Pass yds | 205 | 215 | 240 |
| Rocco Becht | QB · Pass TD | 1.3 | 1.3 | 2 |
| Rocco Becht | QB · INT | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0 |
| Benjamin Brahmer | TE · Rec | 2.8 | 3.1 | 4 |
| Benjamin Brahmer | TE · Rec yds | 30 | 35 | 35 |
| Benjamin Brahmer | TE · Rec TD | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Andrew Rappleyea | TE · Rec | 3.2 | 2.5 | 2 |
| Andrew Rappleyea | TE · Rec yds | 25 | 20 | 15 |
| Andrew Rappleyea | TE · Rec TD | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0 |
| Demond Williams Jr. | QB · Pass yds | 200 | 235 | 170 |
| Demond Williams Jr. | QB · Pass TD | 1.6 | 1.9 | 2 |
| Demond Williams Jr. | QB · Rush yds | 30 | 45 | 45 |
| Baron Naone | TE · Rec | 2.6 | 0 | 2 |
| Baron Naone | TE · Rec yds | 30 | 0 | 5 |
| Baron Naone | TE · Rec TD | 0.2 | 0 | 1 |
| Dezmen Roebuck | WR · Rec | 5.1 | 3.2 | 4 |
| Dezmen Roebuck | WR · Rec yds | 50 | 45 | 30 |
| Dezmen Roebuck | WR · Rec TD | 0.3 | 0.5 | 1 |
Biggest pre-game edge: Oklahoma pass offense vs Florida pass defense — edge +107 offense edge hit
| Player | Proj | Projected | Prior-yr avg | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Mateer | QB · Pass yds | 220 | 240 | 205 |
| John Mateer | QB · Pass TD | 1.4 | 1.2 | 2 |
| John Mateer | QB · INT | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0 |
| Rocky Beers | TE · Rec | 4 | 2.6 | 4 |
| Rocky Beers | TE · Rec yds | 50 | 30 | 70 |
| Rocky Beers | TE · Rec TD | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0 |
| Isaiah Sategna III | WR · Rec | 5.1 | 5.2 | 4 |
| Isaiah Sategna III | WR · Rec yds | 70 | 75 | 35 |
| Isaiah Sategna III | WR · Rec TD | 0.4 | 0.6 | 1 |
| Aaron Philo | QB · Pass yds | 205 | 185 | adjusted pre-game |
| Aaron Philo | QB · Pass TD | 1.1 | 0.5 | adjusted pre-game |
| Aaron Philo | QB · INT | 0.8 | 0.5 | adjusted pre-game |
| Jadan Baugh | RB · Rush yds | 95 | 100 | 35 |
| Jadan Baugh | RB · Rush TD | 1.1 | 0.7 | 1 |
| Jadan Baugh | RB · Rec yds | 10 | 20 | 5 |
| Luke Harpring | TE · Rec | 1.9 | 1.9 | 0 |
| Luke Harpring | TE · Rec yds | 20 | 25 | 0 |
| Luke Harpring | TE · Rec TD | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tramell Jones Jr. | QB · Pass yds | 120 | 95 | 135 |
| Tramell Jones Jr. | QB · Pass TD | 0.8 | 1 | 0 |
| Tramell Jones Jr. | QB · INT | 0.6 | 0 | 2 |
Grades: green within 20% (counts: within half a unit), amber to 50% (one unit), red beyond or an inverted edge. ‘Prior-yr avg’ is the naive baseline — the player’s prior-season per-game average — shown so you can see the opponent adjustment earn its keep. Projections joined to actuals by player id and kickoff-date window; a blank actual means the game log has not landed yet (pending). Availability-adjusted rows are voided, never re-graded.