2026 · Week 2 · September 13, 2026 · College Football

Week 2 scorecard

The preview exactly as we published it before kickoff — the unit mismatches and player production projections — now with the actual box score next to every number and a grade on each row. Nothing here was edited after the games kicked off. See the full season track record →

Week summary

125

Projections graded

5 voided · 0 pending

54%

Beat naive baseline

on 110 comparable rows

3–5

Components vs naive

MAE win/loss by stat

4–3

Unit-edge record

biggest-mismatch calls

Component	n	Our MAE	Naive MAE	Verdict
Pass yds	12	54.46	77.63	beats naive
Pass TD	12	0.48	0.49	beats naive
INT	6	0.49	0.80	beats naive
Rush yds	23	26.94	26.30	trails naive
Rush TD	18	0.42	0.42	trails naive
Rec	12	2.38	2.00	trails naive
Rec yds	30	25.96	22.82	trails naive
Rec TD	12	0.46	0.41	trails naive

5 row(s) voided (adjusted for availability or replaced by a starter change before kickoff) — shown struck-through, excluded from every number above.

Unit edges on this page are the ones published before kickoff, restored from the preview builder’s own publish-time output (the flagged matchup and its edge) — never recomputed from later ratings.

Correction. Kenny Minchey — 3 row(s) projected under player id P0540548, which was found to be the same player as P0535627 and merged on 2026-10-11. These rows are graded against the merged player’s actual box scores (and his true prior-season average), not as missing — the published projections themselves are unchanged. Marked ‘id corrected’ below.

MAE = mean absolute error vs the actual box score, in each stat’s own units. Naive = the player’s prior-season per-game average.

Ohio St. at TexasSat Sep 12, 2026

Biggest pre-game edge: Ohio St. pass offense vs Texas pass defense — edge +216 offense edge hit

Player	Proj	Projected	Prior-yr avg	Actual
Jeremiah Smith	WR · Rec	6.2	6.7	8
Jeremiah Smith	WR · Rec yds	90	95	165
Jeremiah Smith	WR · Rec TD	0.9	0.9	1
Bo Jackson	RB · Rush yds	75	85	75
Bo Jackson	RB · Rush TD	0.3	0.5	0
Bo Jackson	RB · Rec yds	15	15	35
Devin McCuin	WR · Rec	5	5.4	1
Devin McCuin	WR · Rec yds	55	60	5
Devin McCuin	WR · Rec TD	0.5	0.7	0
Arch Manning	QB · Pass yds	235	245	195
Arch Manning	QB · Pass TD	1.9	2	1
Arch Manning	QB · INT	0.7	0.5	1
Hollywood Smothers	RB · Rush yds	70	85	75
Hollywood Smothers	RB · Rush TD	0.3	0.5	2
Hollywood Smothers	RB · Rec yds	15	15	30
Ryan Wingo	WR · Rec	4.2	4.2	4
Ryan Wingo	WR · Rec yds	65	65	20
Ryan Wingo	WR · Rec TD	0.5	0.5	1

Oklahoma at MichiganSat Sep 12, 2026

Biggest pre-game edge: Oklahoma rush offense vs Michigan rush defense — edge -102 defense edge hit

Player	Proj	Projected	Prior-yr avg	Actual
John Mateer	QB · Pass yds	225	240	190
John Mateer	QB · Pass TD	1.1	1.2	1
John Mateer	QB · INT	0.2	0.9	replaced pre-game
Tory Blaylock	RB · Rush yds	40	35	5
Tory Blaylock	RB · Rush TD	0.2	0.3	0
Tory Blaylock	RB · Rec yds	5	5	0
Xavier Robinson	RB · Rush yds	40	35	5
Xavier Robinson	RB · Rush TD	0.2	0.3	0
Xavier Robinson	RB · Rec yds	5	10	0
Bryce Underwood	QB · Pass yds	180	185	110
Bryce Underwood	QB · Pass TD	0.8	0.8	0
Bryce Underwood	QB · Rush yds	25	30	85
Jordan Marshall	RB · Rush yds	75	85	30
Jordan Marshall	RB · Rush TD	0.6	0.9	1
Jordan Marshall	RB · Rec yds	5	10	0
JJ Buchanan	WR · Rec	4.3	2	2
JJ Buchanan	WR · Rec yds	65	35	50
JJ Buchanan	WR · Rec TD	0.3	0.4	0
John Mateer	QB · Rush yds	30	35	45

Iowa St. at IowaSat Sep 12, 2026

Biggest pre-game edge: Iowa pass offense vs Iowa St. pass defense — edge -268 defense edge hit

Player	Proj	Projected	Prior-yr avg	Actual
Jaylen Raynor	QB · Pass yds	220	260	115
Jaylen Raynor	QB · Pass TD	1.1	1.5	1
Jaylen Raynor	QB · Rush yds	25	35	20
Aiden Flora	RB · Rush yds	40	5	90
Aiden Flora	RB · Rush TD	0.2	0.1	0
Aiden Flora	RB · Rec yds	0	0	5
Cameron Pettaway	RB · Rush yds	35	40	5
Cameron Pettaway	RB · Rush TD	0	0	0
Cameron Pettaway	RB · Rec yds	10	15	0
Hank Brown	QB · Pass yds	105	35	190
Hank Brown	QB · Pass TD	0.6	0.3	0
Hank Brown	QB · INT	0.7	0.3	0
Tony Diaz	WR · Rec	4.7	—	8
Tony Diaz	WR · Rec yds	60	—	95
Tony Diaz	WR · Rec TD	0.3	—	0
Kamari Moulton	RB · Rush yds	80	80	55
Kamari Moulton	RB · Rush TD	0.5	0.5	0
Kamari Moulton	RB · Rec yds	5	10	30

Arkansas at UtahSun Sep 13, 2026

Biggest pre-game edge: Utah rush offense vs Arkansas rush defense — edge +174 offense edge miss

Player	Proj	Projected	Prior-yr avg	Actual
KJ Jackson	QB · Pass yds	130	90	140
KJ Jackson	QB · Pass TD	0.8	0.6	0
KJ Jackson	QB · INT	0.6	0	1
O'Mega Blake	WR · Rec	4.5	4.8	DNP
O'Mega Blake	WR · Rec yds	60	65	DNP
O'Mega Blake	WR · Rec TD	0.3	0.4	DNP
Chris Marshall	WR · Rec	4.3	—	5
Chris Marshall	WR · Rec yds	50	—	65
Chris Marshall	WR · Rec TD	0	—	0
Devon Dampier	QB · Pass yds	200	210	260
Devon Dampier	QB · Pass TD	1.9	2	2
Devon Dampier	QB · Rush yds	55	70	50
Wayshawn Parker	RB · Rush yds	70	75	55
Wayshawn Parker	RB · Rush TD	0.4	0.5	2
Wayshawn Parker	RB · Rec yds	15	15	65
LaMarcus Bell	RB · Rush yds	65	—	0
LaMarcus Bell	RB · Rush TD	0.3	—	0
LaMarcus Bell	RB · Rec yds	0	—	0

Arizona St. at Texas A&MSat Sep 12, 2026

Biggest pre-game edge: Texas A&M rush offense vs Arizona St. rush defense — edge +121 offense edge miss

Player	Proj	Projected	Prior-yr avg	Actual
Cutter Boley	QB · Pass yds	370	195	replaced pre-game
Cutter Boley	QB · Pass TD	5.7	1.4	replaced pre-game
Cutter Boley	QB · INT	0.3	1.1	replaced pre-game
Omarion Miller	WR · Rec	4.2	4.1	9
Omarion Miller	WR · Rec yds	70	75	30
Omarion Miller	WR · Rec TD	0.6	0.7	0
Reed Harris	WR · Rec	4.1	—	9
Reed Harris	WR · Rec yds	65	—	190
Reed Harris	WR · Rec TD	0.4	—	2
Marcel Reed	QB · Pass yds	230	245	165
Marcel Reed	QB · Pass TD	1.6	1.9	3
Marcel Reed	QB · INT	0.2	0.9	replaced pre-game
Mario Craver	WR · Rec	4.8	4.9	3
Mario Craver	WR · Rec yds	70	75	35
Mario Craver	WR · Rec TD	0.3	0.3	1
Rueben Owens II	RB · Rush yds	55	55	35
Rueben Owens II	RB · Rush TD	0.3	0.4	1
Rueben Owens II	RB · Rec yds	10	10	5
Grayson Rigdon	RB · Rush yds	35	0	5
Grayson Rigdon	RB · Rush TD	0	0	0
Grayson Rigdon	RB · Rec yds	25	0	0
Marcel Reed	QB · Rush yds	30	40	15

Alabama at KentuckySat Sep 12, 2026

Biggest pre-game edge: Kentucky pass offense vs Alabama pass defense — edge -202 defense edge hit

Player	Proj	Projected	Prior-yr avg	Actual
Keelon Russell	QB · Pass yds	150	70	190
Keelon Russell	QB · Pass TD	0.6	1	1
Keelon Russell	RB · Rush yds	40	10	-10
Ryan Coleman-Williams	WR · Rec	4	3.5	4
Ryan Coleman-Williams	WR · Rec yds	55	30	45
Ryan Coleman-Williams	WR · Rec TD	0	0	0
Keelon Russell	RB · Rush TD	0.1	0	0
Keelon Russell	RB · Rec yds	0	0	0
Kenny Minchey id corrected	QB · Pass yds	200	40	145
Kenny Minchey id corrected	QB · Pass TD	1.4	0	1
Kenny Minchey id corrected	QB · INT	1	0	1
CJ Baxter	RB · Rush yds	50	—	30
CJ Baxter	RB · Rush TD	0.4	—	0
CJ Baxter	RB · Rec yds	0	—	15
Jason Patterson	RB · Rush yds	35	20	55
Jason Patterson	RB · Rush TD	0	0.1	0
Jason Patterson	RB · Rec yds	10	5	0

Oregon at Oklahoma St.Sat Sep 12, 2026

Biggest pre-game edge: Oregon pass offense vs Oklahoma St. pass defense — edge +348 offense edge miss

Player	Proj	Projected	Prior-yr avg	Actual
Dante Moore	QB · Pass yds	245	240	190
Dante Moore	QB · Pass TD	1.9	2	2
Dante Moore	QB · INT	0.7	0.7	0
Jordon Davison	RB · Rush yds	60	50	25
Jordon Davison	RB · Rush TD	0.8	1.1	1
Jordon Davison	RB · Rec yds	5	5	0
Dierre Hill Jr.	RB · Rush yds	45	45	75
Dierre Hill Jr.	RB · Rush TD	0.2	0.3	0
Dierre Hill Jr.	RB · Rec yds	10	10	10
Drew Mestemaker	QB · Pass yds	275	315	315
Drew Mestemaker	QB · Pass TD	1.8	2.4	2
Drew Mestemaker	QB · INT	1.1	0.6	2
Caleb Hawkins	RB · Rush yds	100	110	110
Caleb Hawkins	RB · Rush TD	1.5	1.9	1
Caleb Hawkins	RB · Rec yds	25	30	0
Wyatt Young	WR · Rec	4.8	5	5
Wyatt Young	WR · Rec yds	80	90	120
Wyatt Young	WR · Rec TD	0.4	0.7	1

Grades: green within 20% (counts: within half a unit), amber to 50% (one unit), red beyond or an inverted edge. ‘Prior-yr avg’ is the naive baseline — the player’s prior-season per-game average — shown so you can see the opponent adjustment earn its keep. Projections joined to actuals by player id and kickoff-date window; a blank actual means the game log has not landed yet (pending). Availability-adjusted rows are voided, never re-graded.