2026 · Week 3 · September 19, 2026 · College Football

Week 3 scorecard

The preview exactly as we published it before kickoff — the unit mismatches and player production projections — now with the actual box score next to every number and a grade on each row. Nothing here was edited after the games kicked off. See the full season track record →

Week summary

124

Projections graded

0 voided · 0 pending

53%

Beat naive baseline

on 121 comparable rows

6–2

Components vs naive

MAE win/loss by stat

—

Unit-edge record

biggest-mismatch calls

Component	n	Our MAE	Naive MAE	Verdict
Pass yds	13	62.81	89.91	beats naive
Pass TD	13	0.97	1.14	beats naive
INT	9	0.69	0.45	trails naive
Rush yds	16	38.37	42.18	beats naive
Rush TD	13	0.75	0.75	beats naive
Rec	16	1.96	2.07	beats naive
Rec yds	28	15.19	15.55	beats naive
Rec TD	16	0.48	0.43	trails naive

7 game(s): the published unit grid was not archived and is marked ‘not recoverable’ — not recomputed, not graded, excluded from the unit-edge record.

Correction. Kenny Minchey — 3 row(s) projected under player id P0540548, which was found to be the same player as P0535627 and merged on 2026-10-11. These rows are graded against the merged player’s actual box scores (and his true prior-season average), not as missing — the published projections themselves are unchanged. Marked ‘id corrected’ below.

MAE = mean absolute error vs the actual box score, in each stat’s own units. Naive = the player’s prior-season per-game average.

LSU at MississippiSat Sep 19, 2026

Biggest pre-game edge: not recoverable — the unit grid published for this game was not archived, so it is shown neither recomputed nor graded (excluded from the unit-edge record)

Player	Proj	Projected	Prior-yr avg	Actual
Sam Leavitt	QB · Pass yds	225	235	160
Sam Leavitt	QB · Pass TD	1.2	1.4	1
Sam Leavitt	QB · Rush yds	40	45	65
Trey'Dez Green	TE · Rec	4	4.1	4
Trey'Dez Green	TE · Rec yds	50	55	60
Trey'Dez Green	TE · Rec TD	0.6	0.9	0
Dilin Jones	RB · Rush yds	55	45	105
Dilin Jones	RB · Rush TD	0.4	0.3	1
Dilin Jones	RB · Rec yds	5	5	5
Kewan Lacy	RB · Rush yds	95	105	45
Kewan Lacy	RB · Rush TD	1.2	1.6	1
Kewan Lacy	RB · Rec yds	10	10	0
Deuce Alexander	WR · Rec	3.4	2.9	7
Deuce Alexander	RB · Rec yds	45	45	60
Deuce Alexander	WR · Rec TD	0.2	0.1	1
Deuce Alexander	RB · Rush yds	20	10	5
Deuce Alexander	RB · Rush TD	0	0	0

Georgia at ArkansasSat Sep 19, 2026

Biggest pre-game edge: not recoverable — the unit grid published for this game was not archived, so it is shown neither recomputed nor graded (excluded from the unit-edge record)

Player	Proj	Projected	Prior-yr avg	Actual
Gunner Stockton	QB · Pass yds	200	205	145
Gunner Stockton	QB · Pass TD	2	1.7	1
Gunner Stockton	QB · INT	0.5	0.4	0
Nate Frazier	RB · Rush yds	65	70	75
Nate Frazier	RB · Rush TD	0.5	0.4	1
Nate Frazier	RB · Rec yds	10	10	0
Talyn Taylor	WR · Rec	3.1	0.3	0
Talyn Taylor	WR · Rec yds	40	5	0
Talyn Taylor	WR · Rec TD	0.4	0	0
KJ Jackson	QB · Pass yds	130	90	210
KJ Jackson	QB · Pass TD	0.7	0.6	1
KJ Jackson	QB · INT	0.6	0	0
Ty Lockwood	TE · Rec	2.2	0.2	4
Ty Lockwood	TE · Rec yds	20	5	15
Ty Lockwood	TE · Rec TD	0	0	1
O'Mega Blake	WR · Rec	4.4	4.8	DNP
O'Mega Blake	WR · Rec yds	60	65	DNP
O'Mega Blake	WR · Rec TD	0.3	0.4	DNP

Florida St. at AlabamaSat Sep 19, 2026

Biggest pre-game edge: not recoverable — the unit grid published for this game was not archived, so it is shown neither recomputed nor graded (excluded from the unit-edge record)

Player	Proj	Projected	Prior-yr avg	Actual
Ashton Daniels	QB · Pass yds	175	200	375
Ashton Daniels	QB · Pass TD	0.7	0.8	2
Ashton Daniels	QB · Rush yds	45	70	5
Ousmane Kromah	RB · Rush yds	45	35	80
Ousmane Kromah	RB · Rush TD	0	0	1
Ousmane Kromah	RB · Rec yds	10	10	5
Duce Robinson	WR · Rec	4.1	4.7	6
Duce Robinson	WR · Rec yds	75	90	135
Duce Robinson	WR · Rec TD	0.3	0.5	1
Keelon Russell	QB · Pass yds	155	70	320
Keelon Russell	QB · Pass TD	0.7	1	3
Keelon Russell	QB · INT	0.9	0	0
Ryan Coleman-Williams	WR · Rec	4	3.5	3
Ryan Coleman-Williams	WR · Rec yds	55	30	60
Ryan Coleman-Williams	WR · Rec TD	0	0	1
Daniel Hill	RB · Rush yds	40	20	60
Daniel Hill	RB · Rush TD	0.6	0.4	0
Daniel Hill	RB · Rec yds	15	15	20

Florida at AuburnSat Sep 19, 2026

Biggest pre-game edge: not recoverable — the unit grid published for this game was not archived, so it is shown neither recomputed nor graded (excluded from the unit-edge record)

Player	Proj	Projected	Prior-yr avg	Actual
Aaron Philo	QB · Pass yds	230	185	205
Aaron Philo	QB · Pass TD	1.3	0.5	1
Aaron Philo	QB · INT	1	0.5	1
Jadan Baugh	RB · Rush yds	95	100	160
Jadan Baugh	RB · Rush TD	0.7	0.7	3
Jadan Baugh	RB · Rec yds	15	20	5
Vernell Brown III	WR · Rec	4	4	5
Vernell Brown III	WR · Rec yds	55	50	85
Vernell Brown III	WR · Rec TD	0.1	0	0
Byrum Brown	QB · Pass yds	240	265	270
Byrum Brown	QB · Pass TD	1.9	2.3	3
Byrum Brown	RB · Rush yds	75	85	65
Byrum Brown	RB · Rush TD	0.8	1.2	1
Byrum Brown	RB · Rec yds	0	0	0
Keshaun Singleton	WR · Rec	4.1	4.2	7
Keshaun Singleton	WR · Rec yds	65	75	100
Keshaun Singleton	WR · Rec TD	0.4	0.7	1

SMU at LouisvilleSat Sep 19, 2026

Biggest pre-game edge: not recoverable — the unit grid published for this game was not archived, so it is shown neither recomputed nor graded (excluded from the unit-edge record)

Player	Proj	Projected	Prior-yr avg	Actual
Kevin Jennings	QB · Pass yds	275	280	220
Kevin Jennings	QB · Pass TD	2	2	1
Kevin Jennings	QB · INT	1	1	2
Randy Pittman Jr.	TE · Rec	2.6	2.6	4
Randy Pittman Jr.	TE · Rec yds	25	25	25
Randy Pittman Jr.	TE · Rec TD	0.3	0.2	0
Kendrick Raphael	RB · Rush yds	60	75	195
Kendrick Raphael	RB · Rush TD	0.8	1	3
Kendrick Raphael	RB · Rec yds	15	20	10
Lincoln Kienholz	QB · Pass yds	150	20	175
Lincoln Kienholz	QB · Pass TD	0.9	0.1	2
Lincoln Kienholz	QB · INT	0.3	0	0
Isaac Brown	RB · Rush yds	80	100	65
Isaac Brown	RB · Rush TD	0.5	0.8	1
Isaac Brown	RB · Rec yds	5	5	0
Tre Richardson	WR · Rec	4.3	4	4
Tre Richardson	WR · Rec yds	70	70	60
Tre Richardson	WR · Rec TD	0.4	0.4	0

Kentucky at Texas A&MSat Sep 19, 2026

Biggest pre-game edge: not recoverable — the unit grid published for this game was not archived, so it is shown neither recomputed nor graded (excluded from the unit-edge record)

Player	Proj	Projected	Prior-yr avg	Actual
Kenny Minchey id corrected	QB · Pass yds	195	40	250
Kenny Minchey id corrected	QB · Pass TD	1.5	0	2
Kenny Minchey id corrected	QB · INT	0.9	0	0
Willie Rodriguez	TE · Rec	2.6	1.9	3
Willie Rodriguez	TE · Rec yds	30	25	20
Willie Rodriguez	TE · Rec TD	0.1	0.1	0
Kenny Darby	WR · Rec	3.8	—	2
Kenny Darby	WR · Rec yds	50	—	65
Kenny Darby	WR · Rec TD	0.2	—	1
Marcel Reed	QB · Pass yds	225	245	235
Marcel Reed	QB · Pass TD	1.6	1.9	1
Marcel Reed	QB · Rush yds	30	40	80
Mario Craver	WR · Rec	4.4	4.9	11
Mario Craver	WR · Rec yds	65	75	120
Mario Craver	WR · Rec TD	0.3	0.3	0
Rueben Owens II	RB · Rush yds	55	55	75
Rueben Owens II	RB · Rush TD	0.4	0.4	0
Rueben Owens II	RB · Rec yds	10	10	10

Michigan St. at Notre DameSat Sep 19, 2026

Biggest pre-game edge: not recoverable — the unit grid published for this game was not archived, so it is shown neither recomputed nor graded (excluded from the unit-edge record)

Player	Proj	Projected	Prior-yr avg	Actual
Alessio Milivojevic	QB · Pass yds	150	140	125
Alessio Milivojevic	QB · Pass TD	1	1.1	0
Alessio Milivojevic	QB · INT	0.5	0.3	2
Cam Edwards	RB · Rush yds	85	95	40
Cam Edwards	RB · Rush TD	0.9	1.2	0
Cam Edwards	RB · Rec yds	10	15	0
Jayden Savoury	TE · Rec	2.8	0.2	3
Jayden Savoury	TE · Rec yds	30	5	30
Jayden Savoury	TE · Rec TD	0	0	0
CJ Carr	QB · Pass yds	220	230	235
CJ Carr	QB · Pass TD	1.9	2	0
CJ Carr	QB · INT	0.5	0.5	0
Aneyas Williams	RB · Rush yds	50	35	25
Aneyas Williams	RB · Rush TD	0.7	0.8	1
Aneyas Williams	RB · Rec yds	5	5	10
Jordan Faison	WR · Rec	4	4.1	5
Jordan Faison	WR · Rec yds	55	55	40
Jordan Faison	WR · Rec TD	0.3	0.3	0

Grades: green within 20% (counts: within half a unit), amber to 50% (one unit), red beyond or an inverted edge. ‘Prior-yr avg’ is the naive baseline — the player’s prior-season per-game average — shown so you can see the opponent adjustment earn its keep. Projections joined to actuals by player id and kickoff-date window; a blank actual means the game log has not landed yet (pending). Availability-adjusted rows are voided, never re-graded.