2026 · Week 5 · October 3, 2026 · College Football

Week 5 scorecard

The preview exactly as we published it before kickoff — the unit mismatches and player production projections — now with the actual box score next to every number and a grade on each row. Nothing here was edited after the games kicked off. See the full season track record →

Week summary

126

Projections graded

18 voided · 0 pending

49%

Beat naive baseline

on 114 comparable rows

7–1

Components vs naive

MAE win/loss by stat

6–1

Unit-edge record

biggest-mismatch calls

Component	n	Our MAE	Naive MAE	Verdict
Pass yds	14	72.62	97.50	beats naive
Pass TD	14	0.94	1.20	beats naive
INT	9	0.55	0.62	beats naive
Rush yds	14	49.13	49.68	beats naive
Rush TD	9	1.01	0.96	trails naive
Rec	19	2.01	2.09	beats naive
Rec yds	28	23.08	24.97	beats naive
Rec TD	19	0.37	0.38	beats naive

18 row(s) voided (adjusted for availability or replaced by a starter change before kickoff) — shown struck-through, excluded from every number above.

Unit edges on this page are the ones published before kickoff, restored from a saved copy of the live preview page — never recomputed from later ratings.

MAE = mean absolute error vs the actual box score, in each stat’s own units. Naive = the player’s prior-season per-game average.

Ohio St. at IowaSat Oct 3, 2026

Biggest pre-game edge: Iowa pass offense vs Ohio St. pass defense — edge -345 defense edge hit

Player	Proj	Projected	Prior-yr avg	Actual
Jeremiah Smith	WR · Rec	6.3	6.7	11
Jeremiah Smith	WR · Rec yds	100	95	205
Jeremiah Smith	WR · Rec TD	0.9	0.9	2
Bo Jackson	RB · Rush yds	70	85	70
Bo Jackson	RB · Rush TD	0.3	0.5	0
Bo Jackson	RB · Rec yds	15	15	0
Nate Roberts	TE · Rec	2.1	0.3	replaced pre-game
Nate Roberts	TE · Rec yds	15	0	replaced pre-game
Nate Roberts	TE · Rec TD	0.1	0	replaced pre-game
Hank Brown	QB · Pass yds	120	35	130
Hank Brown	QB · Pass TD	0.7	0.3	0
Hank Brown	QB · INT	0.6	0.3	1
DJ Vonnahme	TE · Rec	2.8	2.9	6
DJ Vonnahme	TE · Rec yds	35	45	65
DJ Vonnahme	TE · Rec TD	0.1	0.3	0
Kamari Moulton	RB · Rush yds	80	80	25
Kamari Moulton	RB · Rush TD	0.4	0.5	0
Kamari Moulton	RB · Rec yds	5	10	0
Julian Sayin	QB · Pass yds	245	260	325
Julian Sayin	QB · Pass TD	1.9	2.3	3
Julian Sayin	QB · INT	0.7	0.6	0

Miami (Fla.) at ClemsonSat Oct 3, 2026

Biggest pre-game edge: Clemson rush offense vs Miami (Fla.) rush defense — edge -126 defense edge hit

Player	Proj	Projected	Prior-yr avg	Actual
Darian Mensah	QB · Pass yds	255	285	225
Darian Mensah	QB · Pass TD	2.2	2.4	1
Darian Mensah	QB · INT	0.5	0.4	0
Malachi Toney	WR · Rec	6.8	6.8	5
Malachi Toney	WR · Rec yds	85	75	40
Malachi Toney	WR · Rec TD	0.8	0.6	0
Malachi Toney	RB · Rush yds	20	10	replaced pre-game
Malachi Toney	RB · Rush TD	0.1	0.1	replaced pre-game
Tait Reynolds	QB · Pass yds	150	—	295
Tait Reynolds	QB · Pass TD	0.5	—	0
Tait Reynolds	QB · INT	0.8	—	1
T.J. Moore	WR · Rec	4.2	4	4
T.J. Moore	WR · Rec yds	60	65	40
T.J. Moore	WR · Rec TD	0.3	0.3	0
Bryant Wesco Jr.	WR · Rec	4.4	4.4	9
Bryant Wesco Jr.	WR · Rec yds	65	75	150
Bryant Wesco Jr.	WR · Rec TD	0.4	0.9	0
Mark Fletcher Jr.	RB · Rush yds	75	85	75
Mark Fletcher Jr.	RB · Rush TD	0.6	0.9	2
Mark Fletcher Jr.	RB · Rec yds	5	10	15

Auburn at TennesseeSat Oct 3, 2026

Biggest pre-game edge: Tennessee pass offense vs Auburn pass defense — edge +103 offense edge miss

Player	Proj	Projected	Prior-yr avg	Actual
Byrum Brown	QB · Pass yds	235	265	160
Byrum Brown	QB · Pass TD	2.1	2.3	1
Byrum Brown	QB · Rush yds	70	85	105
Byrum Brown	RB · Rush TD	0.9	1.2	replaced pre-game
Byrum Brown	RB · Rec yds	0	0	replaced pre-game
Keshaun Singleton	WR · Rec	4.6	4.2	7
Keshaun Singleton	WR · Rec yds	65	75	55
Keshaun Singleton	WR · Rec TD	0.4	0.7	0
Faizon Brandon	QB · Pass yds	175	—	0
Faizon Brandon	QB · Pass TD	1.3	—	0
Faizon Brandon	QB · Rush yds	20	—	-10
DeSean Bishop	RB · Rush yds	80	85	220
DeSean Bishop	RB · Rush TD	1	1.2	3
DeSean Bishop	RB · Rec yds	10	10	0
Faizon Brandon	RB · Rush TD	0.4	—	replaced pre-game
Faizon Brandon	RB · Rec yds	0	—	replaced pre-game
Jake Johnson	TE · Rec	2.7	1.3	DNP
Jake Johnson	TE · Rec yds	25	10	DNP
Jake Johnson	TE · Rec TD	0.1	0.1	DNP
Mike Matthews	WR · Rec	3.9	4.1	4
Mike Matthews	WR · Rec yds	60	65	55
Mike Matthews	WR · Rec TD	0.3	0.3	0

Washington at Southern CaliforniaSat Oct 3, 2026

Biggest pre-game edge: Southern California pass offense vs Washington pass defense — edge +211 offense edge hit

Player	Proj	Projected	Prior-yr avg	Actual
Demond Williams Jr.	QB · Pass yds	235	235	200
Demond Williams Jr.	QB · Pass TD	1.8	1.9	1
Demond Williams Jr.	QB · Rush yds	40	45	25
Baron Naone	TE · Rec	3.1	0	3
Baron Naone	TE · Rec yds	40	0	40
Baron Naone	TE · Rec TD	0.2	0	1
Dezmen Roebuck	WR · Rec	4.6	3.2	5
Dezmen Roebuck	WR · Rec yds	55	45	30
Dezmen Roebuck	WR · Rec TD	0.5	0.5	0
Jayden Maiava	QB · Pass yds	260	285	245
Jayden Maiava	QB · Pass TD	1.8	1.8	1
Jayden Maiava	QB · INT	0.9	0.8	1
King Miller	RB · Rush yds	85	75	80
King Miller	RB · Rush TD	0.6	0.6	0
King Miller	RB · Rec yds	5	10	10
Mark Bowman	TE · Rec	3.6	—	DNP
Mark Bowman	TE · Rec yds	35	—	DNP
Mark Bowman	TE · Rec TD	0.2	—	DNP

Florida at MissouriSat Oct 3, 2026

Biggest pre-game edge: Missouri rush offense vs Florida rush defense — edge +84 offense edge hit

Player	Proj	Projected	Prior-yr avg	Actual
Aaron Philo	QB · Pass yds	220	185	195
Aaron Philo	QB · Pass TD	1.2	0.5	1
Aaron Philo	QB · INT	0.9	0.5	0
Jadan Baugh	RB · Rush yds	105	100	15
Jadan Baugh	RB · Rush TD	1.1	0.7	0
Jadan Baugh	RB · Rec yds	10	20	15
Luke Harpring	TE · Rec	1.9	1.9	3
Luke Harpring	TE · Rec yds	20	25	35
Luke Harpring	TE · Rec TD	0	0	0
Austin Simmons	QB · Pass yds	170	95	340
Austin Simmons	QB · Pass TD	1.4	0.5	2
Austin Simmons	QB · INT	0.6	0.6	0
Ahmad Hardy	RB · Rush yds	115	125	adjusted pre-game
Ahmad Hardy	RB · Rush TD	1	1.2	adjusted pre-game
Ahmad Hardy	RB · Rec yds	0	0	adjusted pre-game
Jamal Roberts	RB · Rush yds	65	60	210
Jamal Roberts	RB · Rush TD	0.4	0.5	3
Jamal Roberts	RB · Rec yds	10	10	30
Jude James	TE · Rec	2.4	0.5	replaced pre-game
Jude James	TE · Rec yds	25	5	replaced pre-game
Jude James	TE · Rec TD	0.3	0.2	replaced pre-game
Cayden Lee	WR · Rec	4.2	2.9	8
Cayden Lee	WR · Rec yds	55	40	110
Cayden Lee	WR · Rec TD	0.3	0.2	0

Arkansas at Texas A&MSat Oct 3, 2026

Biggest pre-game edge: Texas A&M rush offense vs Arkansas rush defense — edge +134 offense edge hit

Player	Proj	Projected	Prior-yr avg	Actual
KJ Jackson	QB · Pass yds	155	90	110
KJ Jackson	QB · Pass TD	0.8	0.6	1
KJ Jackson	QB · INT	0.6	0	1
Ty Lockwood	TE · Rec	2.5	0.2	DNP
Ty Lockwood	TE · Rec yds	20	5	DNP
Ty Lockwood	TE · Rec TD	0.1	0	DNP
O'Mega Blake	WR · Rec	4.5	4.8	replaced pre-game
O'Mega Blake	WR · Rec yds	60	65	replaced pre-game
O'Mega Blake	WR · Rec TD	0.3	0.4	replaced pre-game
Marcel Reed	QB · Pass yds	210	245	170
Marcel Reed	QB · Pass TD	1.6	1.9	0
Marcel Reed	QB · INT	1	0.9	0
Mario Craver	WR · Rec	4.4	4.9	1
Mario Craver	WR · Rec yds	60	75	10
Mario Craver	WR · Rec TD	0.2	0.3	0
Rueben Owens II	RB · Rush yds	60	55	45
Rueben Owens II	RB · Rush TD	0.4	0.4	0
Rueben Owens II	RB · Rec yds	10	10	5
Chris Marshall	WR · Rec	5.6	—	7
Chris Marshall	WR · Rec yds	85	—	75
Chris Marshall	WR · Rec TD	0.1	—	1

Alabama at Mississippi St.Sat Oct 3, 2026

Biggest pre-game edge: Alabama pass offense vs Mississippi St. pass defense — edge +233 offense edge hit

Player	Proj	Projected	Prior-yr avg	Actual
Keelon Russell	QB · Pass yds	200	70	285
Keelon Russell	QB · Pass TD	1.4	1	3
Keelon Russell	QB · Rush yds	25	10	15
Kaleb Edwards	TE · Rec	2	0.7	1
Kaleb Edwards	TE · Rec yds	25	10	30
Kaleb Edwards	TE · Rec TD	0.2	0.1	0
Marshall Pritchett	TE · Rec	2.4	0.5	2
Marshall Pritchett	TE · Rec yds	25	5	45
Marshall Pritchett	TE · Rec TD	0.1	0	0
Kamario Taylor	QB · Pass yds	165	55	260
Kamario Taylor	QB · Pass TD	1.5	0.5	3
Kamario Taylor	QB · Rush yds	45	40	-25
Fluff Bothwell	RB · Rush yds	70	60	0
Fluff Bothwell	RB · Rush TD	0.4	0.5	0
Fluff Bothwell	RB · Rec yds	10	10	0
Sam West	TE · Rec	1.9	0.4	1
Sam West	TE · Rec yds	15	5	10
Sam West	TE · Rec TD	0.2	0.1	0

Grades: green within 20% (counts: within half a unit), amber to 50% (one unit), red beyond or an inverted edge. ‘Prior-yr avg’ is the naive baseline — the player’s prior-season per-game average — shown so you can see the opponent adjustment earn its keep. Projections joined to actuals by player id and kickoff-date window; a blank actual means the game log has not landed yet (pending). Availability-adjusted rows are voided, never re-graded.