2026 · Week 6 · October 10, 2026 · College Football

Week 6 scorecard

The preview exactly as we published it before kickoff — the unit mismatches and player production projections — now with the actual box score next to every number and a grade on each row. Nothing here was edited after the games kicked off. See the full season track record →

Week summary

126

Projections graded

3 voided · 0 pending

50%

Beat naive baseline

on 123 comparable rows

5–3

Components vs naive

MAE win/loss by stat

5–2

Unit-edge record

biggest-mismatch calls

Component	n	Our MAE	Naive MAE	Verdict
Pass yds	14	70.08	74.97	beats naive
Pass TD	14	1.09	1.10	beats naive
INT	11	0.83	0.71	trails naive
Rush yds	12	47.05	50.74	beats naive
Rush TD	9	0.72	0.71	trails naive
Rec	19	1.86	1.83	trails naive
Rec yds	28	16.56	16.76	beats naive
Rec TD	19	0.49	0.50	beats naive

3 row(s) voided (adjusted for availability or replaced by a starter change before kickoff) — shown struck-through, excluded from every number above.

Unit edges on this page are the ones published before kickoff, restored from a saved copy of the live preview page — never recomputed from later ratings.

MAE = mean absolute error vs the actual box score, in each stat’s own units. Naive = the player’s prior-season per-game average.

Georgia at AlabamaSat Oct 10, 2026

Biggest pre-game edge: Alabama rush offense vs Georgia rush defense — edge -234 defense edge miss

Player	Proj	Projected	Prior-yr avg	Actual
Gunner Stockton	QB · Pass yds	195	205	250
Gunner Stockton	QB · Pass TD	2	1.7	1
Gunner Stockton	QB · INT	0.6	0.4	1
Elyiss Williams	TE · Rec	1.6	0.5	1
Elyiss Williams	TE · Rec yds	20	10	15
Elyiss Williams	TE · Rec TD	0.2	0.1	0
Lawson Luckie	TE · Rec	1.8	1.1	2
Lawson Luckie	TE · Rec yds	20	10	30
Lawson Luckie	TE · Rec TD	0.3	0.3	0
Keelon Russell	QB · Pass yds	205	70	185
Keelon Russell	QB · Pass TD	1.4	1	1
Keelon Russell	QB · INT	0.6	0	0
Kaleb Edwards	TE · Rec	1.8	0.7	1
Kaleb Edwards	TE · Rec yds	20	10	10
Kaleb Edwards	TE · Rec TD	0.1	0.1	0
Marshall Pritchett	TE · Rec	2.1	0.5	2
Marshall Pritchett	TE · Rec yds	25	5	30
Marshall Pritchett	TE · Rec TD	0	0	1

Texas at OklahomaSat Oct 10, 2026

Biggest pre-game edge: Oklahoma rush offense vs Texas rush defense — edge -131 defense edge hit

Player	Proj	Projected	Prior-yr avg	Actual
Arch Manning	QB · Pass yds	230	245	260
Arch Manning	QB · Pass TD	1.6	2	3
Arch Manning	QB · INT	0.7	0.5	2
Emaree Winston	TE · Rec	2	0.3	0
Emaree Winston	TE · Rec yds	20	10	0
Emaree Winston	TE · Rec TD	0	0	0
Hollywood Smothers	RB · Rush yds	75	85	40
Hollywood Smothers	RB · Rush TD	0.4	0.5	0
Hollywood Smothers	RB · Rec yds	15	15	20
John Mateer	QB · Pass yds	210	240	155
John Mateer	QB · Pass TD	1.2	1.2	0
John Mateer	QB · INT	1	0.9	0
Rocky Beers	TE · Rec	3.5	2.6	4
Rocky Beers	TE · Rec yds	45	30	30
Rocky Beers	TE · Rec TD	0.5	0.6	0
Isaiah Sategna III	WR · Rec	4.7	5.2	5
Isaiah Sategna III	WR · Rec yds	65	75	65
Isaiah Sategna III	WR · Rec TD	0.6	0.6	0

Texas A&M at MissouriSat Oct 10, 2026

Biggest pre-game edge: Missouri pass offense vs Texas A&M pass defense — edge -64 defense edge hit

Player	Proj	Projected	Prior-yr avg	Actual
Marcel Reed	QB · Pass yds	210	245	190
Marcel Reed	QB · Pass TD	1.4	1.9	0
Marcel Reed	QB · Rush yds	35	40	-20
Mario Craver	WR · Rec	4.4	4.9	1
Mario Craver	WR · Rec yds	50	75	5
Mario Craver	WR · Rec TD	0.1	0.3	0
Rueben Owens II	RB · Rush yds	60	55	15
Rueben Owens II	RB · Rush TD	0.4	0.4	0
Rueben Owens II	RB · Rec yds	10	10	5
Austin Simmons	QB · Pass yds	175	95	145
Austin Simmons	QB · Pass TD	1.3	0.5	1
Austin Simmons	QB · INT	0.7	0.6	1
Jamal Roberts	RB · Rush yds	75	60	220
Jamal Roberts	RB · Rush TD	0.6	0.5	2
Jamal Roberts	RB · Rec yds	10	10	10
Cayden Lee	WR · Rec	4.5	2.9	7
Cayden Lee	WR · Rec yds	60	40	95
Cayden Lee	WR · Rec TD	0.3	0.2	1

Southern California at Penn StateSat Oct 10, 2026

Biggest pre-game edge: Southern California pass offense vs Penn State pass defense — edge +220 offense edge hit

Player	Proj	Projected	Prior-yr avg	Actual
Jayden Maiava	QB · Pass yds	255	285	300
Jayden Maiava	QB · Pass TD	1.8	1.8	3
Jayden Maiava	QB · INT	0.9	0.8	0
King Miller	RB · Rush yds	80	75	100
King Miller	RB · Rush TD	0.5	0.6	1
King Miller	RB · Rec yds	5	10	0
Mark Bowman	TE · Rec	3.6	—	DNP
Mark Bowman	TE · Rec yds	35	—	DNP
Mark Bowman	TE · Rec TD	0.2	—	DNP
Rocco Becht	QB · Pass yds	210	215	290
Rocco Becht	QB · Pass TD	1.4	1.3	1
Rocco Becht	QB · INT	0.9	0.8	0
Benjamin Brahmer	TE · Rec	3	3.1	1
Benjamin Brahmer	TE · Rec yds	35	35	5
Benjamin Brahmer	TE · Rec TD	0.4	0.5	0
Andrew Rappleyea	TE · Rec	2.6	2.5	7
Andrew Rappleyea	TE · Rec yds	25	20	65
Andrew Rappleyea	TE · Rec TD	0.3	0.4	1

UCLA at OregonSat Oct 10, 2026

Biggest pre-game edge: Oregon pass offense vs UCLA pass defense — edge +292 offense edge miss

Player	Proj	Projected	Prior-yr avg	Actual
Nico Iamaleava	QB · Pass yds	175	175	160
Nico Iamaleava	QB · Pass TD	1	1.2	0
Nico Iamaleava	QB · Rush yds	35	45	0
Wayne Knight	RB · Rush yds	95	100	105
Wayne Knight	RB · Rush TD	0.8	0.6	1
Wayne Knight	RB · Rec yds	20	30	10
Anthony Woods	RB · Rush yds	40	25	40
Anthony Woods	RB · Rush TD	0.2	0	0
Anthony Woods	RB · Rec yds	10	20	0
Dante Moore	QB · Pass yds	230	240	adjusted pre-game
Dante Moore	QB · Pass TD	1.7	2	adjusted pre-game
Dante Moore	QB · INT	0.6	0.7	adjusted pre-game
Jamari Johnson	TE · Rec	3	2.1	1
Jamari Johnson	TE · Rec yds	45	35	15
Jamari Johnson	TE · Rec TD	0.3	0.2	0
Jordon Davison	RB · Rush yds	65	50	40
Jordon Davison	RB · Rush TD	0.8	1.1	1
Jordon Davison	RB · Rec yds	5	5	0
Dylan Raiola	QB · Pass yds	210	220	45
Dylan Raiola	QB · Pass TD	1.9	2	0
Dylan Raiola	QB · INT	0.6	0.7	2

Maryland at Ohio St.Sat Oct 10, 2026

Biggest pre-game edge: Ohio St. pass offense vs Maryland pass defense — edge +408 offense edge hit

Player	Proj	Projected	Prior-yr avg	Actual
Malik Washington	QB · Pass yds	225	245	65
Malik Washington	QB · Pass TD	1	1.4	0
Malik Washington	QB · INT	1.2	0.8	0
Dorian Fleming	TE · Rec	3.2	3.3	1
Dorian Fleming	TE · Rec yds	25	30	5
Dorian Fleming	TE · Rec TD	0.1	0.2	0
Chris Durr Jr.	WR · Rec	5.2	4.5	4
Chris Durr Jr.	WR · Rec yds	50	45	15
Chris Durr Jr.	WR · Rec TD	0.3	0.4	0
Julian Sayin	QB · Pass yds	270	260	240
Julian Sayin	QB · Pass TD	2.2	2.3	4
Julian Sayin	QB · INT	0.5	0.6	1
Jeremiah Smith	WR · Rec	6.9	6.7	4
Jeremiah Smith	WR · Rec yds	115	95	95
Jeremiah Smith	WR · Rec TD	1	0.9	2
Bo Jackson	RB · Rush yds	80	85	105
Bo Jackson	RB · Rush TD	0.4	0.5	2
Bo Jackson	RB · Rec yds	15	15	5

Iowa at WashingtonSat Oct 10, 2026

Biggest pre-game edge: Iowa pass offense vs Washington pass defense — edge -285 defense edge hit

Player	Proj	Projected	Prior-yr avg	Actual
Hank Brown	QB · Pass yds	125	35	DNP
Hank Brown	QB · Pass TD	0.7	0.3	DNP
Hank Brown	QB · INT	0.5	0.3	DNP
DJ Vonnahme	TE · Rec	3.2	2.9	2
DJ Vonnahme	TE · Rec yds	40	45	45
DJ Vonnahme	TE · Rec TD	0.2	0.3	2
Kamari Moulton	RB · Rush yds	80	80	210
Kamari Moulton	RB · Rush TD	0.4	0.5	2
Kamari Moulton	RB · Rec yds	5	10	0
Demond Williams Jr.	QB · Pass yds	225	235	70
Demond Williams Jr.	QB · Pass TD	1.6	1.9	0
Demond Williams Jr.	QB · Rush yds	35	45	-10
Baron Naone	TE · Rec	3	0	1
Baron Naone	TE · Rec yds	40	0	5
Baron Naone	TE · Rec TD	0.2	0	0
Dezmen Roebuck	WR · Rec	4.5	3.2	8
Dezmen Roebuck	WR · Rec yds	50	45	50
Dezmen Roebuck	WR · Rec TD	0.3	0.5	1

Grades: green within 20% (counts: within half a unit), amber to 50% (one unit), red beyond or an inverted edge. ‘Prior-yr avg’ is the naive baseline — the player’s prior-season per-game average — shown so you can see the opponent adjustment earn its keep. Projections joined to actuals by player id and kickoff-date window; a blank actual means the game log has not landed yet (pending). Availability-adjusted rows are voided, never re-graded.