The preview exactly as we published it before kickoff — the unit mismatches and player production projections — now with the actual box score next to every number and a grade on each row. Nothing here was edited after the games kicked off. See the full season track record →
| Component | n | Our MAE | Naive MAE | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pass yds | 14 | 91.89 | 129.85 | beats naive |
| Pass TD | 14 | 1.07 | 1.43 | beats naive |
| INT | 10 | 0.86 | 0.91 | beats naive |
| Rush yds | 14 | 32.30 | 41.82 | beats naive |
| Rush TD | 10 | 0.50 | 0.59 | beats naive |
| Rec | 18 | 2.01 | 2.38 | beats naive |
| Rec yds | 28 | 14.69 | 19.45 | beats naive |
| Rec TD | 18 | 0.47 | 0.47 | trails naive |
Biggest pre-game edge: Mississippi pass offense vs Texas pass defense — edge +144 offense edge hit
| Player | Proj | Projected | Prior-yr avg | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trinidad Chambliss | QB · Pass yds | 265 | 260 | 250 |
| Trinidad Chambliss | QB · Pass TD | 1.8 | 1.5 | 2 |
| Trinidad Chambliss | QB · INT | 0.6 | 0.2 | 3 |
| Caleb Odom | TE · Rec | 3 | 1.3 | 5 |
| Caleb Odom | TE · Rec yds | 30 | 15 | 60 |
| Caleb Odom | TE · Rec TD | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0 |
| Kewan Lacy | RB · Rush yds | 90 | 105 | 35 |
| Kewan Lacy | RB · Rush TD | 1.1 | 1.6 | 0 |
| Kewan Lacy | RB · Rec yds | 5 | 10 | 5 |
| Arch Manning | QB · Pass yds | 230 | 245 | 210 |
| Arch Manning | QB · Pass TD | 1.8 | 2 | 1 |
| Arch Manning | QB · INT | 0.6 | 0.5 | 2 |
| Hollywood Smothers | RB · Rush yds | 65 | 85 | DNP |
| Hollywood Smothers | RB · Rush TD | 0.3 | 0.5 | DNP |
| Hollywood Smothers | RB · Rec yds | 15 | 15 | DNP |
| Emaree Winston | TE · Rec | 2 | 0.3 | 0 |
| Emaree Winston | TE · Rec yds | 25 | 10 | 0 |
| Emaree Winston | TE · Rec TD | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Biggest pre-game edge: Alabama pass offense vs Texas A&M pass defense — edge +102 offense edge hit
| Player | Proj | Projected | Prior-yr avg | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcel Reed | QB · Pass yds | 195 | 245 | 165 |
| Marcel Reed | QB · Pass TD | 1.2 | 1.9 | 1 |
| Marcel Reed | QB · Rush yds | 30 | 40 | 25 |
| Mario Craver | WR · Rec | 4 | 4.9 | 6 |
| Mario Craver | WR · Rec yds | 45 | 75 | 45 |
| Mario Craver | WR · Rec TD | 0.1 | 0.3 | 1 |
| Rueben Owens II | RB · Rush yds | 45 | 55 | 20 |
| Rueben Owens II | RB · Rush TD | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0 |
| Rueben Owens II | RB · Rec yds | 10 | 10 | 0 |
| Keelon Russell | QB · Pass yds | 200 | 70 | 310 |
| Keelon Russell | QB · Pass TD | 1.3 | 1 | 3 |
| Keelon Russell | QB · INT | 0.7 | 0 | 1 |
| Marshall Pritchett | TE · Rec | 2.5 | 0.5 | 3 |
| Marshall Pritchett | TE · Rec yds | 30 | 5 | 20 |
| Marshall Pritchett | TE · Rec TD | 0.1 | 0 | 1 |
| Kaleb Edwards | TE · Rec | 1.8 | 0.7 | 2 |
| Kaleb Edwards | TE · Rec yds | 20 | 10 | 25 |
| Kaleb Edwards | TE · Rec TD | 0.1 | 0.1 | 1 |
Biggest pre-game edge: Indiana rush offense vs Michigan rush defense — edge -192 defense edge hit
| Player | Proj | Projected | Prior-yr avg | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Hoover | QB · Pass yds | 225 | 290 | 80 |
| Josh Hoover | QB · Pass TD | 1.9 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Josh Hoover | QB · INT | 0.8 | 1.1 | 1 |
| Charlie Becker | WR · Rec | 4.3 | 2.1 | 3 |
| Charlie Becker | WR · Rec yds | 75 | 40 | 30 |
| Charlie Becker | WR · Rec TD | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0 |
| Turbo Richard | RB · Rush yds | 70 | 70 | 70 |
| Turbo Richard | RB · Rush TD | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0 |
| Turbo Richard | RB · Rec yds | 5 | 20 | 0 |
| Bryce Underwood | QB · Pass yds | 170 | 185 | adjusted pre-game |
| Bryce Underwood | QB · Pass TD | 0.9 | 0.8 | adjusted pre-game |
| Bryce Underwood | QB · Rush yds | 25 | 30 | adjusted pre-game |
| Hogan Hansen | TE · Rec | 2.8 | 1.5 | 4 |
| Hogan Hansen | TE · Rec yds | 30 | 20 | 35 |
| Hogan Hansen | TE · Rec TD | 0.1 | 0 | 0 |
| JJ Buchanan | WR · Rec | 4.4 | 2 | 6 |
| JJ Buchanan | WR · Rec yds | 70 | 35 | 55 |
| JJ Buchanan | WR · Rec TD | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0 |
| Tommy Carr | QB · Pass yds | 125 | — | 165 |
| Tommy Carr | QB · Pass TD | 0.8 | — | 0 |
| Tommy Carr | QB · INT | 0.6 | — | 1 |
Biggest pre-game edge: LSU pass offense vs Auburn pass defense — edge +151 offense edge hit
| Player | Proj | Projected | Prior-yr avg | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Leavitt | QB · Pass yds | 230 | 235 | 385 |
| Sam Leavitt | QB · Pass TD | 1.5 | 1.4 | 3 |
| Sam Leavitt | QB · Rush yds | 30 | 45 | 55 |
| Trey'Dez Green | TE · Rec | 4 | 4.1 | 5 |
| Trey'Dez Green | TE · Rec yds | 50 | 55 | 50 |
| Trey'Dez Green | TE · Rec TD | 0.6 | 0.9 | 1 |
| Dilin Jones | RB · Rush yds | 60 | 45 | 90 |
| Dilin Jones | RB · Rush TD | 0.4 | 0.3 | 1 |
| Dilin Jones | RB · Rec yds | 15 | 5 | 25 |
| Byrum Brown | QB · Pass yds | 225 | 265 | 160 |
| Byrum Brown | QB · Pass TD | 1.6 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Byrum Brown | QB · Rush yds | 75 | 85 | 20 |
| Keshaun Singleton | WR · Rec | 4.8 | 4.2 | 4 |
| Keshaun Singleton | WR · Rec yds | 70 | 75 | 65 |
| Keshaun Singleton | WR · Rec TD | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0 |
| Jake Johnson | TE · Rec | 2.5 | 1.3 | 1 |
| Jake Johnson | TE · Rec yds | 20 | 10 | 20 |
| Jake Johnson | TE · Rec TD | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0 |
Biggest pre-game edge: Pittsburgh rush offense vs Miami (Fla.) rush defense — edge -282 defense edge hit
| Player | Proj | Projected | Prior-yr avg | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason Heintschel | QB · Pass yds | 235 | 235 | adjusted pre-game |
| Mason Heintschel | QB · Pass TD | 1.7 | 1.6 | adjusted pre-game |
| Mason Heintschel | QB · INT | 0.8 | 0.8 | adjusted pre-game |
| Carson Kent | TE · Rec | 2.4 | 0.2 | 5 |
| Carson Kent | TE · Rec yds | 25 | 0 | 40 |
| Carson Kent | TE · Rec TD | 0.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Damon Ferguson Jr. | RB · Rush yds | 55 | — | 40 |
| Damon Ferguson Jr. | RB · Rush TD | 0.2 | — | 1 |
| Damon Ferguson Jr. | RB · Rec yds | 10 | — | 5 |
| Darian Mensah | QB · Pass yds | 255 | 285 | 385 |
| Darian Mensah | QB · Pass TD | 2.4 | 2.4 | 4 |
| Darian Mensah | QB · INT | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0 |
| Malachi Toney | WR · Rec | 7.3 | 6.8 | 16 |
| Malachi Toney | WR · Rec yds | 95 | 75 | 195 |
| Malachi Toney | WR · Rec TD | 1 | 0.6 | 3 |
| Mark Fletcher Jr. | RB · Rush yds | 75 | 85 | 40 |
| Mark Fletcher Jr. | RB · Rush TD | 0.7 | 0.9 | 1 |
| Mark Fletcher Jr. | RB · Rec yds | 10 | 10 | 15 |
| Holden Geriner | QB · Pass yds | 115 | 0 | 270 |
| Holden Geriner | QB · Pass TD | 0.5 | 0 | 1 |
| Holden Geriner | QB · INT | 0.7 | 0 | 0 |
Biggest pre-game edge: Oregon pass offense vs Illinois pass defense — edge +255 offense edge hit
| Player | Proj | Projected | Prior-yr avg | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dante Moore | QB · Pass yds | 230 | 240 | adjusted pre-game |
| Dante Moore | QB · Pass TD | 1.7 | 2 | adjusted pre-game |
| Dante Moore | QB · INT | 0.6 | 0.7 | adjusted pre-game |
| Jamari Johnson | TE · Rec | 3.2 | 2.1 | 7 |
| Jamari Johnson | TE · Rec yds | 50 | 35 | 70 |
| Jamari Johnson | TE · Rec TD | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0 |
| Jordon Davison | RB · Rush yds | 60 | 50 | 90 |
| Jordon Davison | RB · Rush TD | 0.8 | 1.1 | 1 |
| Jordon Davison | RB · Rec yds | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Katin Houser | QB · Pass yds | 225 | 275 | DNP |
| Katin Houser | QB · Pass TD | 1.5 | 1.6 | DNP |
| Katin Houser | QB · INT | 0.8 | 0.5 | DNP |
| Collin Dixon | WR · Rec | 4.5 | 2.7 | 6 |
| Collin Dixon | WR · Rec yds | 60 | 40 | 65 |
| Collin Dixon | WR · Rec TD | 0.7 | 0.4 | 1 |
| Kaden Feagin | TE · Rec | 2.6 | 1.2 | 1 |
| Kaden Feagin | TE · Rec yds | 20 | 15 | 0 |
| Kaden Feagin | TE · Rec TD | 0 | 0.2 | 0 |
| Dylan Raiola | QB · Pass yds | 190 | 220 | 245 |
| Dylan Raiola | QB · Pass TD | 1.7 | 2 | 0 |
| Dylan Raiola | QB · INT | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0 |
Biggest pre-game edge: Southern California pass offense vs Wisconsin pass defense — edge +264 offense edge hit
| Player | Proj | Projected | Prior-yr avg | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden Maiava | QB · Pass yds | 255 | 285 | 260 |
| Jayden Maiava | QB · Pass TD | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1 |
| Jayden Maiava | QB · INT | 0.8 | 0.8 | 2 |
| King Miller | RB · Rush yds | 85 | 75 | 10 |
| King Miller | RB · Rush TD | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0 |
| King Miller | RB · Rec yds | 5 | 10 | 15 |
| Mark Bowman | TE · Rec | 3.7 | — | DNP |
| Mark Bowman | TE · Rec yds | 35 | — | DNP |
| Mark Bowman | TE · Rec TD | 0.2 | — | DNP |
| Colton Joseph | QB · Pass yds | 195 | 220 | 60 |
| Colton Joseph | QB · Pass TD | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1 |
| Colton Joseph | QB · Rush yds | 60 | 85 | 30 |
| Jacob Harris | TE · Rec | 2.2 | 1.6 | 2 |
| Jacob Harris | TE · Rec yds | 30 | 15 | 10 |
| Jacob Harris | TE · Rec TD | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0 |
| Abu Sama III | RB · Rush yds | 65 | 60 | 70 |
| Abu Sama III | RB · Rush TD | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0 |
| Abu Sama III | RB · Rec yds | 0 | 0 | 5 |
Grades: green within 20% (counts: within half a unit), amber to 50% (one unit), red beyond or an inverted edge. ‘Prior-yr avg’ is the naive baseline — the player’s prior-season per-game average — shown so you can see the opponent adjustment earn its keep. Projections joined to actuals by player id and kickoff-date window; a blank actual means the game log has not landed yet (pending). Availability-adjusted rows are voided, never re-graded.