2026 · Week 9 · November 1, 2026 · College Football

Week 9 scorecard

The preview exactly as we published it before kickoff — the unit mismatches and player production projections — now with the actual box score next to every number and a grade on each row. Nothing here was edited after the games kicked off. See the full season track record →

Week summary

126

Projections graded

9 voided · 0 pending

44%

Beat naive baseline

on 117 comparable rows

2–6

Components vs naive

MAE win/loss by stat

5–2

Unit-edge record

biggest-mismatch calls

Component	n	Our MAE	Naive MAE	Verdict
Pass yds	14	75.85	70.05	trails naive
Pass TD	14	0.86	0.96	beats naive
INT	9	0.78	0.70	trails naive
Rush yds	14	35.82	41.05	beats naive
Rush TD	9	0.46	0.35	trails naive
Rec	19	1.46	1.18	trails naive
Rec yds	28	21.56	18.79	trails naive
Rec TD	19	0.31	0.30	trails naive

9 row(s) voided (adjusted for availability or replaced by a starter change before kickoff) — shown struck-through, excluded from every number above.

MAE = mean absolute error vs the actual box score, in each stat’s own units. Naive = the player’s prior-season per-game average.

Ohio St. at Southern CaliforniaSat Oct 31, 2026

Biggest pre-game edge: Ohio St. pass offense vs Southern California pass defense — edge +347 offense edge hit

Player	Proj	Projected	Prior-yr avg	Actual
Julian Sayin	QB · Pass yds	250	260	adjusted pre-game
Julian Sayin	QB · Pass TD	1.9	2.3	adjusted pre-game
Julian Sayin	QB · INT	0.7	0.6	adjusted pre-game
Jeremiah Smith	WR · Rec	6.4	6.7	10
Jeremiah Smith	WR · Rec yds	110	95	85
Jeremiah Smith	WR · Rec TD	1.1	0.9	1
Bo Jackson	RB · Rush yds	80	85	120
Bo Jackson	RB · Rush TD	0.5	0.5	0
Bo Jackson	RB · Rec yds	10	15	30
Jayden Maiava	QB · Pass yds	260	285	220
Jayden Maiava	QB · Pass TD	1.8	1.8	1
Jayden Maiava	QB · INT	0.9	0.8	0
King Miller	RB · Rush yds	75	75	80
King Miller	RB · Rush TD	0.4	0.6	1
King Miller	RB · Rec yds	5	10	10
Mark Bowman	TE · Rec	3.5	—	3
Mark Bowman	TE · Rec yds	30	—	80
Mark Bowman	TE · Rec TD	0.2	—	0
Luke Fahey	QB · Pass yds	120	—	260
Luke Fahey	QB · Pass TD	0.7	—	1
Luke Fahey	QB · INT	0.9	—	0

Florida at GeorgiaSat Oct 31, 2026

Biggest pre-game edge: Georgia pass offense vs Florida pass defense — edge +257 offense edge miss

Player	Proj	Projected	Prior-yr avg	Actual
Aaron Philo	QB · Pass yds	220	185	25
Aaron Philo	QB · Pass TD	1.1	0.5	0
Aaron Philo	QB · INT	0.8	0.5	2
Jadan Baugh	RB · Rush yds	100	100	40
Jadan Baugh	RB · Rush TD	1	0.7	0
Jadan Baugh	RB · Rec yds	10	20	0
Luke Harpring	TE · Rec	1.7	1.9	1
Luke Harpring	TE · Rec yds	20	25	25
Luke Harpring	TE · Rec TD	0	0	0
Gunner Stockton	QB · Pass yds	205	205	100
Gunner Stockton	QB · Pass TD	2	1.7	0
Gunner Stockton	QB · INT	0.6	0.4	0
Lawson Luckie	TE · Rec	2.2	1.1	1
Lawson Luckie	TE · Rec yds	25	10	15
Lawson Luckie	TE · Rec TD	0.4	0.3	0
Elyiss Williams	TE · Rec	1.8	0.5	0
Elyiss Williams	TE · Rec yds	20	10	0
Elyiss Williams	TE · Rec TD	0.3	0.1	0

Auburn at MississippiSat Oct 31, 2026

Biggest pre-game edge: Mississippi pass offense vs Auburn pass defense — edge +215 offense edge hit

Player	Proj	Projected	Prior-yr avg	Actual
Byrum Brown	QB · Pass yds	220	265	195
Byrum Brown	QB · Pass TD	1.5	2.3	1
Byrum Brown	QB · Rush yds	70	85	5
Keshaun Singleton	WR · Rec	5	4.2	3
Keshaun Singleton	WR · Rec yds	70	75	0
Keshaun Singleton	WR · Rec TD	0.4	0.7	0
Jake Johnson	TE · Rec	2.5	1.3	2
Jake Johnson	TE · Rec yds	20	10	20
Jake Johnson	TE · Rec TD	0.1	0.1	0
Trinidad Chambliss	QB · Pass yds	275	260	265
Trinidad Chambliss	QB · Pass TD	1.9	1.5	2
Trinidad Chambliss	QB · INT	0.7	0.2	1
Caleb Odom	TE · Rec	3.1	1.3	1
Caleb Odom	TE · Rec yds	35	15	35
Caleb Odom	TE · Rec TD	0.2	0.1	0
Kewan Lacy	RB · Rush yds	90	105	adjusted pre-game
Kewan Lacy	RB · Rush TD	1.1	1.6	adjusted pre-game
Kewan Lacy	RB · Rec yds	5	10	adjusted pre-game
Deuce Alexander	WR · Rec	4.5	2.9	5
Deuce Alexander	WR · Rec yds	60	45	60
Deuce Alexander	WR · Rec TD	0.4	0.1	0

Clemson at Florida St.Sat Oct 31, 2026

Biggest pre-game edge: Clemson rush offense vs Florida St. rush defense — edge +55 offense edge hit

Player	Proj	Projected	Prior-yr avg	Actual
Tait Reynolds	QB · Pass yds	160	—	190
Tait Reynolds	QB · Pass TD	0.3	—	2
Tait Reynolds	QB · INT	0.7	—	0
Bryant Wesco Jr.	WR · Rec	4.7	4.4	4
Bryant Wesco Jr.	WR · Rec yds	65	75	35
Bryant Wesco Jr.	WR · Rec TD	0.4	0.9	0
Gideon Davidson	RB · Rush yds	55	20	35
Gideon Davidson	RB · Rush TD	0.3	0	0
Gideon Davidson	RB · Rec yds	5	5	0
Ashton Daniels	QB · Pass yds	210	200	350
Ashton Daniels	QB · Pass TD	1.2	0.8	2
Ashton Daniels	QB · Rush yds	45	70	20
Ousmane Kromah	RB · Rush yds	55	35	DNP
Ousmane Kromah	RB · Rush TD	0.3	0	DNP
Ousmane Kromah	RB · Rec yds	10	10	DNP
Duce Robinson	WR · Rec	3.9	4.7	2
Duce Robinson	WR · Rec yds	75	90	30
Duce Robinson	WR · Rec TD	0.4	0.5	0

South Carolina at OklahomaSat Oct 31, 2026

Biggest pre-game edge: South Carolina rush offense vs Oklahoma rush defense — edge -194 defense edge miss

Player	Proj	Projected	Prior-yr avg	Actual
LaNorris Sellers	QB · Pass yds	220	205	300
LaNorris Sellers	QB · Pass TD	1.5	1.1	3
LaNorris Sellers	QB · Rush yds	40	20	95
Matt Fuller	RB · Rush yds	45	25	15
Matt Fuller	RB · Rush TD	0.3	0.2	0
Matt Fuller	RB · Rec yds	10	5	0
Maurice Brown II	TE · Rec	2	0.2	0
Maurice Brown II	TE · Rec yds	20	0	0
Maurice Brown II	TE · Rec TD	0.2	0	0
John Mateer	QB · Pass yds	215	240	245
John Mateer	QB · Pass TD	1.3	1.2	2
John Mateer	QB · INT	0.9	0.9	0
Rocky Beers	TE · Rec	3.9	2.6	4
Rocky Beers	TE · Rec yds	50	30	50
Rocky Beers	TE · Rec TD	0.6	0.6	0
Isaiah Sategna III	WR · Rec	5.2	5.2	4
Isaiah Sategna III	WR · Rec yds	75	75	15
Isaiah Sategna III	WR · Rec TD	0.5	0.6	0

Mississippi St. at TexasSat Oct 31, 2026

Biggest pre-game edge: Mississippi St. rush offense vs Texas rush defense — edge -220 defense edge hit

Player	Proj	Projected	Prior-yr avg	Actual
Kamario Taylor	QB · Pass yds	160	55	adjusted pre-game
Kamario Taylor	QB · Pass TD	1.5	0.5	adjusted pre-game
Kamario Taylor	QB · Rush yds	35	40	adjusted pre-game
Anthony Evans III	WR · Rec	6.2	5.2	3
Anthony Evans III	WR · Rec yds	80	65	20
Anthony Evans III	WR · Rec TD	0.4	0.3	0
Fluff Bothwell	RB · Rush yds	65	60	50
Fluff Bothwell	RB · Rush TD	0.3	0.5	0
Fluff Bothwell	RB · Rec yds	10	10	15
Arch Manning	QB · Pass yds	240	245	220
Arch Manning	QB · Pass TD	1.8	2	3
Arch Manning	QB · INT	0.7	0.5	0
Hollywood Smothers	RB · Rush yds	65	85	-5
Hollywood Smothers	RB · Rush TD	0.3	0.5	0
Hollywood Smothers	RB · Rec yds	15	15	0
Raleek Brown	RB · Rush yds	75	95	30
Raleek Brown	RB · Rush TD	0.5	0.3	0
Raleek Brown	RB · Rec yds	10	20	25
Parker Puckett	QB · Pass yds	130	0	20
Parker Puckett	QB · Pass TD	0.5	0	0
Parker Puckett	QB · INT	0.8	0	0

Washington at NebraskaSun Nov 1, 2026

Biggest pre-game edge: Washington pass offense vs Nebraska pass defense — edge +153 offense edge hit

Player	Proj	Projected	Prior-yr avg	Actual
Demond Williams Jr.	QB · Pass yds	210	235	100
Demond Williams Jr.	QB · Pass TD	1.6	1.9	1
Demond Williams Jr.	QB · Rush yds	25	45	30
Baron Naone	TE · Rec	2.8	0	0
Baron Naone	TE · Rec yds	35	0	0
Baron Naone	TE · Rec TD	0.2	0	0
Dezmen Roebuck	WR · Rec	5	3.2	5
Dezmen Roebuck	WR · Rec yds	50	45	25
Dezmen Roebuck	WR · Rec TD	0.5	0.5	0
Anthony Colandrea	QB · Pass yds	215	245	255
Anthony Colandrea	QB · Pass TD	1.4	1.6	1
Anthony Colandrea	QB · Rush yds	35	45	20
Luke Lindenmeyer	TE · Rec	2.5	2.6	5
Luke Lindenmeyer	TE · Rec yds	25	30	60
Luke Lindenmeyer	TE · Rec TD	0.1	0.2	0
Kwazi Gilmer	WR · Rec	4.5	4.2	4
Kwazi Gilmer	WR · Rec yds	50	45	55
Kwazi Gilmer	WR · Rec TD	0.6	0.3	0

Grades: green within 20% (counts: within half a unit), amber to 50% (one unit), red beyond or an inverted edge. ‘Prior-yr avg’ is the naive baseline — the player’s prior-season per-game average — shown so you can see the opponent adjustment earn its keep. Projections joined to actuals by player id and kickoff-date window; a blank actual means the game log has not landed yet (pending). Availability-adjusted rows are voided, never re-graded.