2026 · Week 11 · Nov 14 – Nov 15
Week 11 big-game preview
⚠ adjusted Nov 13 for availability
Each game leads with our line — a spread and total
built from the players on each roster — followed by the matchup underneath it: each side's
pass and rush units measured against the other's, and the stars' stat lines projected with the
same opponent adjustment the engine uses to rate the games themselves. Everything is frozen at
kickoff and graded against what actually happened.
Michigan at OregonSat Nov 14, 8:30PM UTC
Our lineOregon −12Total 49.5Projected Michigan 19, Oregon 31Oregon wins 76%All lines → Oregon's 98th-percentile pass defense looks to smother Michigan's 64th-percentile passing game — Tommy Carr projects for 140 pass yds.
Michigan Pass O → Oregon Pass D
offense1298 · 64th pct
defense1476 · 98th pct
edge -178 defense★ biggest edge
Michigan Rush O → Oregon Rush D
offense1525 · 95th pct
defense1480 · 94th pct
edge +45 offense
Oregon Pass O → Michigan Pass D
offense1566 · 99th pct
defense1492 · 99th pct
edge +74 offense
Oregon Rush O → Michigan Rush D
offense1512 · 94th pct
defense1592 · 99th pct
edge -80 defense
Michigan
140 Pass yds0.4 Pass TD0.9 INT
2.8 Rec25 Rec yds0 Rec TD
4.2 Rec65 Rec yds0.4 Rec TD
Oregon
185 Pass yds1.4 Pass TD0.8 INT
3.4 Rec45 Rec yds0.3 Rec TD
45 Rush yds0.3 Rush TD20 Rec yds
Missouri at GeorgiaSat Nov 14, 8:30PM UTC
Our lineGeorgia −18Total 46.5Projected Missouri 14, Georgia 32Georgia wins 86%All lines → Georgia's 100th-percentile rush defense looks to smother Missouri's 93rd-percentile running game — Austin Simmons projects for 170 pass yds.
Missouri Pass O → Georgia Pass D
offense1372 · 82nd pct
defense1520 · 100th pct
edge -148 defense
Missouri Rush O → Georgia Rush D
offense1494 · 93rd pct
defense1683 · 100th pct
edge -189 defense★ biggest edge
Georgia Pass O → Missouri Pass D
offense1552 · 98th pct
defense1384 · 93rd pct
edge +168 offense
Georgia Rush O → Missouri Rush D
offense1584 · 98th pct
defense1514 · 95th pct
edge +70 offense
Missouri
170 Pass yds1.2 Pass TD0.5 INT
80 Rush yds0.6 Rush TD10 Rec yds
5.6 Rec70 Rec yds0.3 Rec TD
Georgia
190 Pass yds1.7 Pass TD0.6 INT
2 Rec25 Rec yds0.4 Rec TD
70 Rush yds0.6 Rush TD5 Rec yds
Texas at LSUSun Nov 15, 12:30AM UTC
Our lineTexas −1Total 54Projected Texas 28, LSU 26Texas wins 53%All lines → Texas's 98th-percentile rush defense looks to smother LSU's 81st-percentile running game — Sam Leavitt projects for 260 pass yds.
Texas Pass O → LSU Pass D
offense1490 · 96th pct
defense1405 · 95th pct
edge +85 offense
Texas Rush O → LSU Rush D
offense1448 · 87th pct
defense1490 · 95th pct
edge -42 defense
LSU Pass O → Texas Pass D
offense1554 · 98th pct
defense1472 · 98th pct
edge +82 offense
LSU Rush O → Texas Rush D
offense1408 · 81st pct
defense1589 · 98th pct
edge -181 defense★ biggest edge
Texas
225 Pass yds1.8 Pass TD0.7 INT
70 Rush yds0.4 Rush TD10 Rec yds
4.8 Rec55 Rec yds0.4 Rec TD
LSU
260 Pass yds1.5 Pass TD30 Rush yds
4.3 Rec50 Rec yds0.5 Rec TD
60 Rush yds0.5 Rush TD15 Rec yds
Mississippi at OklahomaSat Nov 14, 9:15PM UTC
Our lineOle Miss −1.5Total 56Projected Ole Miss 29, Oklahoma 27Ole Miss wins 54%All lines → Mississippi's 99th-percentile passing attack meets Oklahoma's 96th-percentile pass defense — Trinidad Chambliss projects for 260 pass yds.
Mississippi Pass O → Oklahoma Pass D
offense1592 · 99th pct
defense1418 · 96th pct
edge +174 offense★ biggest edge
Mississippi Rush O → Oklahoma Rush D
offense1552 · 97th pct
defense1524 · 96th pct
edge +28 offense
Oklahoma Pass O → Mississippi Pass D
offense1440 · 92nd pct
defense1352 · 88th pct
edge +88 offense
Oklahoma Rush O → Mississippi Rush D
offense1419 · 83rd pct
defense1422 · 90th pct
edge -3 defense
Mississippi
260 Pass yds1.8 Pass TD0.8 INT
3.1 Rec35 Rec yds0.2 Rec TD
4.6 Rec65 Rec yds0.4 Rec TD
Oklahoma
220 Pass yds1.5 Pass TD0.9 INT
4.2 Rec55 Rec yds0.5 Rec TD
5 Rec65 Rec yds0.5 Rec TD
Tennessee at Texas A&MSat Nov 14, 8:00PM UTC
Our lineTexas A&M −3Total 53Projected Tennessee 25, Texas A&M 28Texas A&M wins 57%All lines → Tennessee's 97th-percentile running attack meets Texas A&M's 92nd-percentile rush defense — George MacIntyre projects for 120 pass yds.
Tennessee Pass O → Texas A&M Pass D
offense1454 · 93rd pct
defense1434 · 97th pct
edge +20 offense
Tennessee Rush O → Texas A&M Rush D
offense1552 · 97th pct
defense1450 · 92nd pct
edge +102 offense★ biggest edge
Texas A&M Pass O → Tennessee Pass D
offense1416 · 89th pct
defense1382 · 93rd pct
edge +34 offense
Texas A&M Rush O → Tennessee Rush D
offense1498 · 94th pct
defense1454 · 92nd pct
edge +44 offense
Tennessee
120 Pass yds0.3 Pass TD0.6 INT
100 Rush yds1.2 Rush TD5 Rec yds
2.2 Rec25 Rec yds0 Rec TD
Texas A&M
200 Pass yds1.1 Pass TD1.1 INT
4.3 Rec45 Rec yds0.2 Rec TD
1.8 Rec20 Rec yds0 Rec TD
Southern California at IndianaSat Nov 14, 8:30PM UTC
Our lineIndiana −5Total 64.5Projected USC 30, Indiana 35Indiana wins 61%All lines → Southern California's 100th-percentile passing attack meets Indiana's 90th-percentile pass defense — Jayden Maiava projects for 265 pass yds.
Southern California Pass O → Indiana Pass D
offense1662 · 100th pct
defense1363 · 90th pct
edge +299 offense★ biggest edge
Southern California Rush O → Indiana Rush D
offense1413 · 82nd pct
defense1563 · 97th pct
edge -150 defense
Indiana Pass O → Southern California Pass D
offense1458 · 95th pct
defense1322 · 83rd pct
edge +136 offense
Indiana Rush O → Southern California Rush D
offense1401 · 79th pct
defense1346 · 78th pct
edge +55 offense
Southern California
265 Pass yds1.9 Pass TD0.7 INT
70 Rush yds0.5 Rush TD10 Rec yds
3.6 Rec40 Rec yds0.2 Rec TD
Indiana
220 Pass yds1.8 Pass TD0.7 INT
4.8 Rec85 Rec yds0.7 Rec TD
4.2 Rec65 Rec yds0.6 Rec TD
Northwestern at Ohio St.Sat Nov 14, 5:00PM UTC
Our lineOhio State −24.5Total 57.5Projected Northwestern 17, Ohio State 41Ohio State wins 92%All lines → Ohio St.'s 100th-percentile passing attack meets Northwestern's 89th-percentile pass defense — Luke Fahey projects for 170 pass yds.
Northwestern Pass O → Ohio St. Pass D
offense1258 · 55th pct
defense1501 · 100th pct
edge -243 defense
Northwestern Rush O → Ohio St. Rush D
offense1344 · 69th pct
defense1624 · 100th pct
edge -280 defense
Ohio St. Pass O → Northwestern Pass D
offense1660 · 100th pct
defense1360 · 89th pct
edge +300 offense★ biggest edge
Ohio St. Rush O → Northwestern Rush D
offense1568 · 98th pct
defense1360 · 82nd pct
edge +208 offense
Northwestern
140 Pass yds0.4 Pass TD0.8 INT
5.4 Rec75 Rec yds0.5 Rec TD
3.4 Rec45 Rec yds0 Rec TD
Ohio St.
Luke FaheyQB · rtg 1338projected starter unconfirmed 170 Pass yds1 Pass TD0.8 INT
6.4 Rec110 Rec yds1 Rec TD
80 Rush yds0.6 Rush TD15 Rec yds
Unit elos are each team's most recent pre-game rating; percentiles
rank them against every FBS unit active this season. Player projections use
matchup_project's engine-consistent adjusted form (season average plus the
inversion-derived opponent delta), the variant that beats the season-average and
league-median baselines in backtest. Stars are chosen by current rating and
in-team usage share. Forecasts, not guarantees — we grade them next week.