2026 · Week 7 · October 26, 2026 · NFL
Week 7 scorecard
The preview exactly as we published it before kickoff —
the unit mismatches and player production projections — now with the
actual box score next to every number and a grade on each row. Nothing
here was edited after the games kicked off. See the full
season track record →
Week summary
144
Projections graded
15 voided · 0 pending
52%
Beat naive baseline
on 141 comparable rows
5–3
Components vs naive
MAE win/loss by stat
—
Unit-edge record
biggest-mismatch calls
| Component | n | Our MAE | Naive MAE | Verdict |
|---|
| Pass yds | 16 | 66.13 | 71.39 | beats naive |
| Pass TD | 16 | 0.76 | 0.83 | beats naive |
| INT | 13 | 0.60 | 0.59 | trails naive |
| Rush yds | 16 | 31.95 | 26.08 | trails naive |
| Rush TD | 13 | 0.60 | 0.54 | trails naive |
| Rec | 19 | 1.72 | 1.78 | beats naive |
| Rec yds | 32 | 17.79 | 18.12 | beats naive |
| Rec TD | 19 | 0.51 | 0.52 | beats naive |
15 row(s) voided (adjusted for availability or replaced by a starter change before kickoff) — shown struck-through, excluded from every number above.
MAE = mean absolute error vs the actual box score, in each stat’s own units. Naive = the player’s prior-season per-game average.
Chiefs at SeahawksSun Oct 25, 2026
| Player | Proj | Projected | Prior-yr avg | Actual |
|---|
| Patrick Mahomes II | QB · Pass yds | 245 | 255 | 165 |
| Patrick Mahomes II | QB · Pass TD | 1.3 | 1.6 | 0 |
| Patrick Mahomes II | QB · INT | 1 | 0.8 | 1 |
| Travis Kelce | TE · Rec | 3.8 | 4.5 | 4 |
| Travis Kelce | TE · Rec yds | 40 | 50 | 45 |
| Travis Kelce | TE · Rec TD | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0 |
| Kenneth Walker III | RB · Rush yds | 90 | 65 | 35 |
| Kenneth Walker III | RB · Rush TD | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Kenneth Walker III | RB · Rec yds | 20 | 20 | 20 |
| Sam Darnold | QB · Pass yds | 215 | 235 | 255 |
| Sam Darnold | QB · Pass TD | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1 |
| Sam Darnold | QB · INT | 0.9 | 0.7 | 1 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR · Rec | 6.7 | 6.8 | 9 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR · Rec yds | 90 | 100 | 150 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR · Rec TD | 0.6 | 0.6 | 1 |
| AJ Barner | TE · Rec | 2.7 | 2.9 | 4 |
| AJ Barner | TE · Rec yds | 25 | 30 | 40 |
| AJ Barner | TE · Rec TD | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0 |
Packers at LionsSun Oct 25, 2026
| Player | Proj | Projected | Prior-yr avg | Actual |
|---|
| Jordan Love | QB · Pass yds | 240 | 230 | 275 |
| Jordan Love | QB · Pass TD | 1.9 | 1.7 | 2 |
| Jordan Love | QB · INT | 0.5 | 0.4 | 1 |
| Tucker Kraft | TE · Rec | 4.1 | 4 | 4 |
| Tucker Kraft | TE · Rec yds | 55 | 60 | 50 |
| Tucker Kraft | TE · Rec TD | 0.4 | 0.8 | 1 |
| Christian Watson | WR · Rec | 4.3 | 3.5 | 5 |
| Christian Watson | WR · Rec yds | 70 | 60 | 55 |
| Christian Watson | WR · Rec TD | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0 |
| Jared Goff | QB · Pass yds | 275 | 270 | 305 |
| Jared Goff | QB · Pass TD | 1.8 | 2 | 2 |
| Jared Goff | QB · INT | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | RB · Rush yds | 75 | 70 | 115 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | RB · Rush TD | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | RB · Rec yds | 40 | 35 | 25 |
| Sam LaPorta | TE · Rec | 4.4 | 4.4 | 1 |
| Sam LaPorta | TE · Rec yds | 50 | 55 | 20 |
| Sam LaPorta | TE · Rec TD | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0 |
Niners at FalconsSun Oct 25, 2026
| Player | Proj | Projected | Prior-yr avg | Actual |
|---|
| Brock Purdy | QB · Pass yds | 235 | 235 | 290 |
| Brock Purdy | QB · Pass TD | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| Brock Purdy | QB · INT | 0.7 | 1.2 | 2 |
| George Kittle | TE · Rec | 4.5 | 5.3 | 8 |
| George Kittle | TE · Rec yds | 55 | 60 | 90 |
| George Kittle | TE · Rec TD | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0 |
| Mike Evans | WR · Rec | 4.3 | 4.3 | adjusted pre-game |
| Mike Evans | WR · Rec yds | 60 | 55 | adjusted pre-game |
| Mike Evans | WR · Rec TD | 0.4 | 0.4 | adjusted pre-game |
| Michael Penix Jr. | QB · Pass yds | 220 | 220 | 215 |
| Michael Penix Jr. | QB · Pass TD | 1.1 | 1 | 3 |
| Michael Penix Jr. | QB · INT | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0 |
| Bijan Robinson | RB · Rush yds | 90 | 85 | adjusted pre-game |
| Bijan Robinson | RB · Rush TD | 0.4 | 0.4 | adjusted pre-game |
| Bijan Robinson | RB · Rec yds | 30 | 50 | adjusted pre-game |
| Kyle Pitts | TE · Rec | 4.1 | 5.2 | 5 |
| Kyle Pitts | TE · Rec yds | 45 | 55 | 20 |
| Kyle Pitts | TE · Rec TD | 0.4 | 0.3 | 1 |
| Christian McCaffrey | RB · Rush yds | 65 | 70 | 40 |
| Christian McCaffrey | RB · Rush TD | 0.7 | 0.5 | 1 |
| Christian McCaffrey | RB · Rec yds | 30 | 55 | 60 |
| Drake London | WR · Rec | 4.8 | 5.7 | 7 |
| Drake London | WR · Rec yds | 75 | 75 | 65 |
| Drake London | WR · Rec TD | 0.3 | 0.6 | 1 |
Patriots at BearsThu Oct 22, 2026
| Player | Proj | Projected | Prior-yr avg | Actual |
|---|
| Drake Maye | QB · Pass yds | 240 | 250 | 320 |
| Drake Maye | QB · Pass TD | 1.8 | 1.8 | 2 |
| Drake Maye | QB · Rush yds | 30 | 30 | 25 |
| Hunter Henry | TE · Rec | 3.2 | 3.3 | 7 |
| Hunter Henry | TE · Rec yds | 35 | 40 | 70 |
| Hunter Henry | TE · Rec TD | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | RB · Rush yds | 55 | 45 | 20 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | RB · Rush TD | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | RB · Rec yds | 25 | 25 | 95 |
| Caleb Williams | QB · Pass yds | 235 | 240 | 310 |
| Caleb Williams | QB · Pass TD | 1.5 | 1.6 | 2 |
| Caleb Williams | QB · INT | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0 |
| D'Andre Swift | RB · Rush yds | 65 | 70 | 80 |
| D'Andre Swift | RB · Rush TD | 0.7 | 0.6 | 1 |
| D'Andre Swift | RB · Rec yds | 15 | 20 | 10 |
| Colston Loveland | TE · Rec | 4.4 | 4.1 | 7 |
| Colston Loveland | TE · Rec yds | 50 | 55 | 70 |
| Colston Loveland | TE · Rec TD | 0.2 | 0.4 | 1 |
Cowboys at EaglesMon Oct 26, 2026
| Player | Proj | Projected | Prior-yr avg | Actual |
|---|
| Dak Prescott | QB · Pass yds | 260 | 270 | 210 |
| Dak Prescott | QB · Pass TD | 1.3 | 1.8 | 3 |
| Dak Prescott | QB · INT | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0 |
| Javonte Williams | RB · Rush yds | 60 | 75 | 155 |
| Javonte Williams | RB · Rush TD | 0.6 | 0.7 | 1 |
| Javonte Williams | RB · Rec yds | 10 | 10 | 0 |
| CeeDee Lamb | WR · Rec | 5.9 | 5.8 | 5 |
| CeeDee Lamb | WR · Rec yds | 75 | 85 | 75 |
| CeeDee Lamb | WR · Rec TD | 0.3 | 0.2 | 2 |
| Tanner McKee | QB · Pass yds | 195 | 70 | 210 |
| Tanner McKee | QB · Pass TD | 0.9 | 0.2 | 1 |
| Tanner McKee | QB · INT | 0.6 | 0.2 | 1 |
| Dallas Goedert | TE · Rec | 3.9 | 4 | 5 |
| Dallas Goedert | TE · Rec yds | 40 | 40 | 50 |
| Dallas Goedert | TE · Rec TD | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0 |
| DeVonta Smith | WR · Rec | 4.8 | 4.7 | replaced pre-game |
| DeVonta Smith | WR · Rec yds | 55 | 60 | replaced pre-game |
| DeVonta Smith | WR · Rec TD | 0.2 | 0.2 | replaced pre-game |
| Saquon Barkley | RB · Rush yds | 65 | 75 | 60 |
| Saquon Barkley | RB · Rush TD | 0.2 | 0.4 | 1 |
| Saquon Barkley | RB · Rec yds | 15 | 20 | 10 |
Colts at VikingsSun Oct 25, 2026
| Player | Proj | Projected | Prior-yr avg | Actual |
|---|
| Daniel Jones | QB · Pass yds | 220 | 240 | 110 |
| Daniel Jones | QB · Pass TD | 1.1 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Daniel Jones | QB · INT | 0.9 | 0.6 | 1 |
| Jonathan Taylor | RB · Rush yds | 70 | 95 | 95 |
| Jonathan Taylor | RB · Rush TD | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1 |
| Jonathan Taylor | RB · Rec yds | 20 | 20 | 15 |
| Josh Downs | WR · Rec | 3.6 | 3.6 | replaced pre-game |
| Josh Downs | WR · Rec yds | 45 | 35 | replaced pre-game |
| Josh Downs | WR · Rec TD | 0.1 | 0.2 | replaced pre-game |
| Kyler Murray | QB · Pass yds | 195 | 190 | 150 |
| Kyler Murray | QB · Pass TD | 1 | 1.2 | 1 |
| Kyler Murray | QB · INT | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0 |
| Aaron Jones Sr. | RB · Rush yds | 60 | 45 | 25 |
| Aaron Jones Sr. | RB · Rush TD | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0 |
| Aaron Jones Sr. | RB · Rec yds | 15 | 15 | 0 |
| Justin Jefferson | WR · Rec | 4.3 | 4.9 | replaced pre-game |
| Justin Jefferson | WR · Rec yds | 55 | 60 | replaced pre-game |
| Justin Jefferson | WR · Rec TD | 0.2 | 0.1 | replaced pre-game |
| Tyler Warren | TE · Rec | 4.5 | 4.5 | DNP |
| Tyler Warren | TE · Rec yds | 35 | 50 | DNP |
| Tyler Warren | TE · Rec TD | 0.2 | 0.2 | DNP |
| T.J. Hockenson | TE · Rec | 3.6 | 3.4 | 4 |
| T.J. Hockenson | TE · Rec yds | 35 | 30 | 35 |
| T.J. Hockenson | TE · Rec TD | 0.2 | 0.2 | 1 |
Bengals at RavensSun Oct 25, 2026
| Player | Proj | Projected | Prior-yr avg | Actual |
|---|
| Joe Burrow | QB · Pass yds | 240 | 225 | 290 |
| Joe Burrow | QB · Pass TD | 1.9 | 2.1 | 4 |
| Joe Burrow | QB · INT | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0 |
| Chase Brown | RB · Rush yds | 60 | 60 | 40 |
| Chase Brown | RB · Rush TD | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0 |
| Chase Brown | RB · Rec yds | 25 | 25 | 20 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | WR · Rec | 5.9 | 7.8 | 5 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | WR · Rec yds | 70 | 90 | 60 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | WR · Rec TD | 0.4 | 0.5 | 1 |
| Tyler Huntley | QB · Pass yds | 160 | 85 | 300 |
| Tyler Huntley | QB · Pass TD | 0.9 | 0.4 | 1 |
| Tyler Huntley | QB · Rush yds | 25 | 30 | 10 |
| Derrick Henry | RB · Rush yds | 95 | 95 | 45 |
| Derrick Henry | RB · Rush TD | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0 |
| Derrick Henry | RB · Rec yds | 10 | 10 | 5 |
| Mark Andrews | TE · Rec | 3.1 | 2.8 | 3 |
| Mark Andrews | TE · Rec yds | 30 | 25 | 25 |
| Mark Andrews | TE · Rec TD | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0 |
Buccaneers at PanthersSun Oct 25, 2026
| Player | Proj | Projected | Prior-yr avg | Actual |
|---|
| Jalon Daniels | QB · Pass yds | 160 | — | 0 |
| Jalon Daniels | QB · Pass TD | 0.8 | — | 0 |
| Jalon Daniels | QB · Rush yds | 25 | — | -5 |
| Cade Otton | TE · Rec | 3.2 | 4.2 | DNP |
| Cade Otton | TE · Rec yds | 30 | 40 | DNP |
| Cade Otton | TE · Rec TD | 0.1 | 0.1 | DNP |
| Bucky Irving | RB · Rush yds | 65 | 60 | 105 |
| Bucky Irving | RB · Rush TD | 0.2 | 0.1 | 2 |
| Bucky Irving | RB · Rec yds | 20 | 30 | 5 |
| Bryce Young | QB · Pass yds | 250 | 195 | 165 |
| Bryce Young | QB · Pass TD | 1.8 | 1.4 | 1 |
| Bryce Young | QB · INT | 0.5 | 0.7 | 2 |
| Chuba Hubbard | RB · Rush yds | 50 | 35 | 35 |
| Chuba Hubbard | RB · Rush TD | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0 |
| Chuba Hubbard | RB · Rec yds | 15 | 15 | 25 |
| Tetairoa McMillan | WR · Rec | 4.6 | 4.2 | 4 |
| Tetairoa McMillan | WR · Rec yds | 70 | 60 | 40 |
| Tetairoa McMillan | WR · Rec TD | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0 |
Grades: green within 20% (counts:
within half a unit), amber to 50% (one unit),
red beyond or an inverted edge. ‘Prior-yr
avg’ is the naive baseline — the player’s prior-season per-game
average — shown so you can see the opponent adjustment earn its keep.
Projections joined to actuals by player id and kickoff-date window; a blank
actual means the game log has not landed yet (pending). Availability-adjusted
rows are voided, never re-graded.