2026 · Week 8 · November 2, 2026 · NFL
Week 8 scorecard
The preview exactly as we published it before kickoff —
the unit mismatches and player production projections — now with the
actual box score next to every number and a grade on each row. Nothing
here was edited after the games kicked off. See the full
season track record →
Week summary
144
Projections graded
12 voided · 0 pending
58%
Beat naive baseline
on 144 comparable rows
8–0
Components vs naive
MAE win/loss by stat
—
Unit-edge record
biggest-mismatch calls
| Component | n | Our MAE | Naive MAE | Verdict |
|---|
| Pass yds | 16 | 71.95 | 74.14 | beats naive |
| Pass TD | 16 | 0.95 | 0.98 | beats naive |
| INT | 11 | 0.82 | 0.84 | beats naive |
| Rush yds | 17 | 29.58 | 34.35 | beats naive |
| Rush TD | 12 | 0.57 | 0.59 | beats naive |
| Rec | 20 | 1.69 | 1.78 | beats naive |
| Rec yds | 32 | 18.37 | 19.41 | beats naive |
| Rec TD | 20 | 0.35 | 0.38 | beats naive |
12 row(s) voided (adjusted for availability or replaced by a starter change before kickoff) — shown struck-through, excluded from every number above.
MAE = mean absolute error vs the actual box score, in each stat’s own units. Naive = the player’s prior-season per-game average.
Ravens at BillsSun Nov 1, 2026
| Player | Proj | Projected | Prior-yr avg | Actual |
|---|
| Tyler Huntley | QB · Pass yds | 160 | 85 | adjusted pre-game |
| Tyler Huntley | QB · Pass TD | 0.8 | 0.4 | adjusted pre-game |
| Tyler Huntley | QB · INT | 0.4 | 0 | adjusted pre-game |
| Derrick Henry | RB · Rush yds | 90 | 95 | 55 |
| Derrick Henry | RB · Rush TD | 0.9 | 0.9 | 1 |
| Derrick Henry | RB · Rec yds | 10 | 10 | 5 |
| Mark Andrews | TE · Rec | 3 | 2.8 | 3 |
| Mark Andrews | TE · Rec yds | 25 | 25 | 15 |
| Mark Andrews | TE · Rec TD | 0 | 0.3 | 0 |
| Josh Allen | QB · Pass yds | 230 | 235 | 290 |
| Josh Allen | QB · Pass TD | 1.5 | 1.6 | 2 |
| Josh Allen | QB · Rush yds | 35 | 40 | 30 |
| James Cook | RB · Rush yds | 85 | 95 | 80 |
| James Cook | RB · Rush TD | 0.6 | 0.6 | 1 |
| James Cook | RB · Rec yds | 15 | 15 | 20 |
| Dalton Kincaid | TE · Rec | 3.7 | 3.7 | 4 |
| Dalton Kincaid | TE · Rec yds | 50 | 50 | 85 |
| Dalton Kincaid | TE · Rec TD | 0.3 | 0.5 | 1 |
| Lamar Jackson | QB · Pass yds | 200 | 195 | 0 |
| Lamar Jackson | QB · Pass TD | 1.1 | 1.6 | 0 |
| Lamar Jackson | QB · INT | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0 |
Vikings at LionsSun Nov 1, 2026
| Player | Proj | Projected | Prior-yr avg | Actual |
|---|
| Kyler Murray | QB · Pass yds | 190 | 190 | 210 |
| Kyler Murray | QB · Pass TD | 1 | 1.2 | 2 |
| Kyler Murray | QB · Rush yds | 25 | 35 | 35 |
| T.J. Hockenson | TE · Rec | 3.8 | 3.4 | 4 |
| T.J. Hockenson | TE · Rec yds | 35 | 30 | 60 |
| T.J. Hockenson | TE · Rec TD | 0.2 | 0.2 | 1 |
| Justin Jefferson | WR · Rec | 4.4 | 4.9 | 5 |
| Justin Jefferson | WR · Rec yds | 55 | 60 | 35 |
| Justin Jefferson | WR · Rec TD | 0.2 | 0.1 | 1 |
| Jared Goff | QB · Pass yds | 280 | 270 | 175 |
| Jared Goff | QB · Pass TD | 1.8 | 2 | 1 |
| Jared Goff | QB · INT | 0.5 | 0.5 | 1 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | RB · Rush yds | 80 | 70 | 155 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | RB · Rush TD | 0.7 | 0.8 | 1 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | RB · Rec yds | 35 | 35 | 15 |
| Sam LaPorta | TE · Rec | 4.2 | 4.4 | 3 |
| Sam LaPorta | TE · Rec yds | 50 | 55 | 35 |
| Sam LaPorta | TE · Rec TD | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0 |
Falcons at BuccaneersSun Nov 1, 2026
| Player | Proj | Projected | Prior-yr avg | Actual |
|---|
| Michael Penix Jr. | QB · Pass yds | 220 | 220 | 125 |
| Michael Penix Jr. | QB · Pass TD | 1.3 | 1 | 0 |
| Michael Penix Jr. | QB · INT | 0.3 | 0.3 | 4 |
| Bijan Robinson | RB · Rush yds | 90 | 85 | adjusted pre-game |
| Bijan Robinson | RB · Rush TD | 0.4 | 0.4 | adjusted pre-game |
| Bijan Robinson | RB · Rec yds | 35 | 50 | adjusted pre-game |
| Kyle Pitts | TE · Rec | 4.5 | 5.2 | 2 |
| Kyle Pitts | TE · Rec yds | 50 | 55 | 5 |
| Kyle Pitts | TE · Rec TD | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0 |
| Baker Mayfield | QB · Pass yds | 195 | 215 | 0 |
| Baker Mayfield | QB · Pass TD | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Baker Mayfield | QB · INT | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0 |
| Cade Otton | TE · Rec | 3.3 | 4.2 | DNP |
| Cade Otton | TE · Rec yds | 30 | 40 | DNP |
| Cade Otton | TE · Rec TD | 0.1 | 0.1 | DNP |
| Bucky Irving | RB · Rush yds | 65 | 60 | 170 |
| Bucky Irving | RB · Rush TD | 0.3 | 0.1 | 1 |
| Bucky Irving | RB · Rec yds | 15 | 30 | 0 |
| Drake London | WR · Rec | 5.1 | 5.7 | 1 |
| Drake London | WR · Rec yds | 80 | 75 | 10 |
| Drake London | WR · Rec TD | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0 |
Bears at SeahawksMon Nov 2, 2026
| Player | Proj | Projected | Prior-yr avg | Actual |
|---|
| Caleb Williams | QB · Pass yds | 240 | 240 | 245 |
| Caleb Williams | QB · Pass TD | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1 |
| Caleb Williams | QB · INT | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0 |
| D'Andre Swift | RB · Rush yds | 65 | 70 | 70 |
| D'Andre Swift | RB · Rush TD | 0.8 | 0.6 | 3 |
| D'Andre Swift | RB · Rec yds | 15 | 20 | 10 |
| Colston Loveland | TE · Rec | 4.6 | 4.1 | 7 |
| Colston Loveland | TE · Rec yds | 50 | 55 | 65 |
| Colston Loveland | TE · Rec TD | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0 |
| Sam Darnold | QB · Pass yds | 220 | 235 | 190 |
| Sam Darnold | QB · Pass TD | 1.3 | 1.5 | 2 |
| Sam Darnold | QB · INT | 0.8 | 0.7 | 1 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR · Rec | 7 | 6.8 | 6 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR · Rec yds | 95 | 100 | 120 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR · Rec TD | 0.7 | 0.6 | 1 |
| AJ Barner | TE · Rec | 3 | 2.9 | 2 |
| AJ Barner | TE · Rec yds | 30 | 30 | 25 |
| AJ Barner | TE · Rec TD | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0 |
Chiefs at BroncosSun Nov 1, 2026
| Player | Proj | Projected | Prior-yr avg | Actual |
|---|
| Patrick Mahomes II | QB · Pass yds | 240 | 255 | 320 |
| Patrick Mahomes II | QB · Pass TD | 1.2 | 1.6 | 3 |
| Patrick Mahomes II | QB · INT | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0 |
| Travis Kelce | TE · Rec | 3.5 | 4.5 | 5 |
| Travis Kelce | TE · Rec yds | 40 | 50 | 65 |
| Travis Kelce | TE · Rec TD | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0 |
| Kenneth Walker III | RB · Rush yds | 90 | 65 | 70 |
| Kenneth Walker III | RB · Rush TD | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Kenneth Walker III | RB · Rec yds | 20 | 20 | 15 |
| Bo Nix | QB · Pass yds | 210 | 235 | 220 |
| Bo Nix | QB · Pass TD | 1.2 | 1.6 | 2 |
| Bo Nix | QB · INT | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0 |
| Evan Engram | TE · Rec | 2.3 | 3.1 | DNP |
| Evan Engram | TE · Rec yds | 25 | 30 | DNP |
| Evan Engram | TE · Rec TD | 0.1 | 0.1 | DNP |
| Jaylen Waddle | WR · Rec | 3.8 | 4 | replaced pre-game |
| Jaylen Waddle | WR · Rec yds | 45 | 55 | replaced pre-game |
| Jaylen Waddle | WR · Rec TD | 0.2 | 0.4 | replaced pre-game |
| J.K. Dobbins | RB · Rush yds | 55 | 75 | 15 |
| J.K. Dobbins | RB · Rush TD | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0 |
| J.K. Dobbins | RB · Rec yds | 5 | 5 | 0 |
Chargers at RamsSun Nov 1, 2026
| Player | Proj | Projected | Prior-yr avg | Actual |
|---|
| Justin Herbert | QB · Pass yds | 195 | 230 | 255 |
| Justin Herbert | QB · Pass TD | 1 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Justin Herbert | QB · Rush yds | 25 | 35 | 15 |
| Omarion Hampton | RB · Rush yds | 55 | 55 | 20 |
| Omarion Hampton | RB · Rush TD | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0 |
| Omarion Hampton | RB · Rec yds | 15 | 20 | 5 |
| Ladd McConkey | WR · Rec | 3.2 | 4.1 | replaced pre-game |
| Ladd McConkey | WR · Rec yds | 45 | 50 | replaced pre-game |
| Ladd McConkey | WR · Rec TD | 0.2 | 0.4 | replaced pre-game |
| Matthew Stafford | QB · Pass yds | 285 | 280 | 155 |
| Matthew Stafford | QB · Pass TD | 2 | 2.6 | 1 |
| Matthew Stafford | QB · INT | 0.9 | 0.5 | 1 |
| Puka Nacua | WR · Rec | 7.7 | 8.1 | 11 |
| Puka Nacua | WR · Rec yds | 105 | 110 | 80 |
| Puka Nacua | WR · Rec TD | 0.6 | 0.6 | 1 |
| Kyren Williams | RB · Rush yds | 65 | 70 | 55 |
| Kyren Williams | RB · Rush TD | 0.5 | 0.6 | 1 |
| Kyren Williams | RB · Rec yds | 25 | 20 | 5 |
| Charlie Kolar | TE · Rec | 1.9 | 1 | 1 |
| Charlie Kolar | TE · Rec yds | 20 | 15 | 20 |
| Charlie Kolar | TE · Rec TD | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0 |
Patriots at DolphinsSun Nov 1, 2026
| Player | Proj | Projected | Prior-yr avg | Actual |
|---|
| Drake Maye | QB · Pass yds | 235 | 250 | 200 |
| Drake Maye | QB · Pass TD | 1.8 | 1.8 | 2 |
| Drake Maye | QB · Rush yds | 30 | 30 | 5 |
| Hunter Henry | TE · Rec | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3 |
| Hunter Henry | TE · Rec yds | 40 | 40 | 30 |
| Hunter Henry | TE · Rec TD | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | RB · Rush yds | 55 | 45 | 80 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | RB · Rush TD | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | RB · Rec yds | 30 | 25 | 10 |
| Malik Willis | QB · Pass yds | 160 | 105 | 210 |
| Malik Willis | QB · Pass TD | 0.7 | 0.8 | 2 |
| Malik Willis | QB · Rush yds | 30 | 30 | 0 |
| Greg Dulcich | TE · Rec | 3 | 2.9 | 4 |
| Greg Dulcich | TE · Rec yds | 35 | 35 | 45 |
| Greg Dulcich | TE · Rec TD | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0 |
| Ollie Gordon II | RB · Rush yds | 35 | 10 | 70 |
| Ollie Gordon II | RB · Rush TD | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0 |
| Ollie Gordon II | RB · Rec yds | 5 | 0 | 0 |
Panthers at PackersThu Oct 29, 2026
| Player | Proj | Projected | Prior-yr avg | Actual |
|---|
| Bryce Young | QB · Pass yds | 230 | 195 | 210 |
| Bryce Young | QB · Pass TD | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1 |
| Bryce Young | QB · INT | 0.8 | 0.7 | 1 |
| Chuba Hubbard | RB · Rush yds | 55 | 35 | 80 |
| Chuba Hubbard | RB · Rush TD | 0.4 | 0.2 | 1 |
| Chuba Hubbard | RB · Rec yds | 15 | 15 | 40 |
| Tetairoa McMillan | WR · Rec | 4.3 | 4.2 | 6 |
| Tetairoa McMillan | WR · Rec yds | 65 | 60 | 60 |
| Tetairoa McMillan | WR · Rec TD | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0 |
| Jordan Love | QB · Pass yds | 240 | 230 | 290 |
| Jordan Love | QB · Pass TD | 1.7 | 1.7 | 3 |
| Jordan Love | QB · INT | 0.7 | 0.4 | 1 |
| Tucker Kraft | TE · Rec | 3.8 | 4 | 6 |
| Tucker Kraft | TE · Rec yds | 45 | 60 | 55 |
| Tucker Kraft | TE · Rec TD | 0.4 | 0.8 | 1 |
| Christian Watson | WR · Rec | 4.1 | 3.5 | 8 |
| Christian Watson | WR · Rec yds | 70 | 60 | 115 |
| Christian Watson | WR · Rec TD | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0 |
Grades: green within 20% (counts:
within half a unit), amber to 50% (one unit),
red beyond or an inverted edge. ‘Prior-yr
avg’ is the naive baseline — the player’s prior-season per-game
average — shown so you can see the opponent adjustment earn its keep.
Projections joined to actuals by player id and kickoff-date window; a blank
actual means the game log has not landed yet (pending). Availability-adjusted
rows are voided, never re-graded.