Our spread and total for every FBS-vs-FBS game this week. The line is built from the players on each roster — every quarterback, back, receiver and defender carries his own rating, and it travels with him when he transfers — matched against the opponent's units. Set once, frozen at kickoff, graded against the final score.
Reading the board. Spread is our expected margin, shown on both teams (favourite in colour). Total is our expected combined score. Proj. is each team's expected points. Win % comes from our margin and how far this line has historically missed; Fair ML is that probability written as a no-vig moneyline. Times are Eastern. Once a game is final its score appears beside each team, with a green ✓ when the team we favoured won outright; the line itself never changes after kickoff.
| Sample | Games | Avg. miss, margin | Winner picked |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 to date, FBS vs FBS | 266 | 11.9 pts | 82% |
| 2014–2025, FBS vs FBS | 8,582 | 13.5 pts | 70% |
These are out-of-sample test predictions, made by fitting only on earlier seasons. None of them was published before kickoff. From this week on, every line on this page is frozen at kickoff and graded against the final score, misses included.
What the line does not know: injuries, suspensions or lineup changes since each team's last game; weather; players with no rating yet (true freshmen and newcomers without a box score are left out). A gold quarterback note under a team shows who the line assumes at quarterback where that is the reason the line is less reliable: he replaced the team's usual starter in its previous game (the line uses the quarterback who played most recently), he has fewer than 100 career pass attempts, or his status is in doubt. “Last game not in our data” means the team's most recent result has not reached our ratings yet. Lines are published for FBS-vs-FBS games only. This is our forecast, not betting advice.